To reiterate - because I have a feeling it may come up down the road - it's not bitcoiners' fault that governments over-spent and killed their currencies.

TIL the Diggers invented the commune 400 years ago and 200 years before Marx invented communism, and it went exactly the same way it always does

When I talked to Gates in person, he said “experts tell me a long range electric semi truck is impossible”. However, when I asked what his assumptions were about battery energy density and vehicle energy consumption per mile, which are the two numbers needed to determine range, he did not know either number! I also offered to let him take one of our semi trucks for independent testing, but he declined. Not sure what more I could have done. 🤷‍♂️

Even her resignation letter is excellent. Hester will be missed!

Bullish for China.

Don’t get me wrong - the higher rates go the more likely something breaks. But the reason they’re so high in the first place is that post-BTFP it has actually been really fucking difficult for pure interest rate risk to break much of anything and therefore we have to wait until it transforms into credit risk due to unaffordable debt service…which is hard to predict in terms of timing and not nearly as immediate as margin calls or bank runs

Wife Refuses To Confirm Any Of Husband's Restaurant Nominations buff.ly/5Bh88FU

It pains me to say this, but if we actually “get AGI,” the resulting boom in industrial capacity from robotics and massive society-wide wealth creation will look like a total vindication of neoliberalism. The discourse about financialization and offshoring being a generational mistake may be replaced by a very different historical interpretation: that the late 20th and early 21st centuries were an enormous capital-accumulation phase, freeing up civilization-scale pools of liquid capital that could ultimately be deployed to accelerate and bring about the most consequential technological phase-change in human history. In that telling, what looked like deindustrialization and betrayal from inside the period (I grew up in the Rust Belt, I know) becomes the prelude to reindustrialization on an almost unimaginable scale. None of this is inevitable. The needle has certainly not been threaded. China and x-risk remain enormous contingencies. But if it is, I suspect the future will look back on the last 50 years very differently than we do today.

Yeah, "capitalism" is just a sort of minimal framework for societal coercion reduction, given human nature as a prior. Socialism is an extremely heavy handed and ultimately violence-requiring way to deny or re-form human nature in some very ill-fitting mold.

Wow that's good

I think a lot of what generates happiness in life, and especially long term deep satisfaction, is just doing the things you're evolved to do. Don't overthink it.

Yup, it's a pretty stupid question. Even in raw evolutionary terms, that's obvious. You, dear human, evolved over millions of years to be deeply satisfied by creating and rearing children, watching them grow into productive adults. This is perhaps the most fundamental evolutionary thing; most people will thus likely experience a good deal of emptiness, ultimately, without it.

I am fully on-board with this. I wrote my first line of code in 1987, and 2026 is the first year since then that I've written 0 lines of code, despite producing more than ever. Incredibly exciting times for software producers!

This observation isn’t original, but the asymmetry in reactions to the failure of public enterprises and private enterprises is striking. When a public school fails, people argue that it just needs more funding, but no one would argue that, say, a supermarket that sells unsafe food just needs more money; it should improve or close.

Debate on cause of rise of the long term bond yields: Two models, both produced by economists affiliated with the Fed: 1) ACM (it’s all real yields/growth/ppl expect Fed to hike) 2) KM (it is term premium) Warsh picked the former interpretation. As did the rest of the FOMC, implied in the SEP More than a year ago, debate on whether tariffs would generate persistent vs transitory inflation: Two models also from Fed affiliated economists: 1) tariffs generate persistent inflation (new research) 2) tariffs deflationary in the long term, and initially a one off price change (from a long standing structural model that proved to be correct in 2018) The FOMC adopted the first interpretation, until facts showed otherwise today. Tell me that economics is not a dismal science. At least the Fed should debate about this, disagree. That is not what the SEP show. Group think is rearing its ugly head inside the Fed again.

AI gives kids superpowers. Here’s a list of things my 10yo son has done with AI, with minimal adult help. 1) Built a working commercial grade fire alarm system 2) Taught himself to use a 3D printer and 3D modeling software 3) Designed and 3D printed multiple model rockets 4) Built a pressurized air potato cannon from parts acquired at Home Depot 5) Built multiple games 6) Written multiple business plans and pitched me on funding them. Most aren’t that great, but it’s wonderful to see him try! He’s constantly asking AIs the most interesting questions and using them to learn about his interests. It amazes me how many adults believe kids should be prevented from using AI.

Some advice: if you're holding some crypto-asset you've never actually used, go use it! Or just stop holding it. If you don't understand what you own, you're gonna be a lot more likely to do something stupid with your trade/holding. (Like all the Orchard bug-fix panicooors)

If you don't have LLM agents clanking away on your behalf while you're eating, sleeping, or otherwise living your life then you're leaving a lot of the value offered by this technology just sitting on the table.

Ultimately, if your pow crypto-asset is trying to be money/sov, you do NOT want its mining infra to be capable of doing other useful things in the world. If miners can just repurpose their equipment for something else without taking a huge loss, there is no longrun incentive alignment. They will be much likeky to rent out their equipment to 51% attackers, or otherwise take actions for short term gain that kill their ability to mine going forward. The fact that Bitcoin ASICs are totally useless for anything else keeps miners from playing short term games, and is part of why when naive economists look at some mining market dynamics, they see some "irrational" behavior. But it's not irrational; it's long term alignment.

Zuck has been delivering for millennials at every stage of life. Facebook for checking out everyone in college. Insta for early career when you have disposable income. Muse for mid-career with kids and no time to do personal tasks. You know empty nesting is gonna be lit.

Obviously everyone is worried about yields and inflation, but guess what: good news is still good news.