After the addition of maker fees on Kalshi combos, market makers have widened their spreads meaning that takers are bearing the cost of the fees. Exactly what you'd expect from standard economic incidence analysis!

Kalshi is adding maker fees to combos (parlays). There is some speculation that this is to squeeze out retail MMs from market making since they do not get fee rebates, so will not be able to compete on pricing with institutional MMs.

Polymarket is increasing fees (again) while their volume falls further behind Kalshi.

Sites like @PlayProphetX should not be allowed to call themselves prediction markets if they pull stuff to protect their affiliated market makers like this. Polymarket and Kalshi both don't do this sort of thing. PMs should be peer-to-peer. If you predict badly, you lose

Polymarket US seems to be going well...

Not my usual type of post, which hopefully underscores the importance. Alex Bores is one of the best congressional candidates I've seen, unusually competent and smart for a politician, especially on AI. The election is Tuesday. If you're in his Manhattan district, vote. I've looked at hundreds of elections while betting on them and this is the only time I've felt compelled to tweet out a call to action. Bores is in New York's 12th district, which runs roughly between 16th and 100th street in Manhattan, if I'm really convincing hopefully you will contact anyone you know in the district and try to convince them as well, though only registered Dems can vote here. The main theme of the race is AI. Bores wrote the strongest AI regulation bill in the country in the State Assembly. As such, he has been supported by pro AI regulation groups, and opposed by anti AI regulation groups, and this has ballooned into a near $30M spending bonanza. If you support AI regulation, that's a strong reason to support Bores. But in my view, the anti regulation groups are very wrong to oppose Bores so fiercely, and even if you're a strong supporter of AI you should probably also support Bores. As a professional predictor of politics, here are some predictions. Congress will likely produce a significant bipartisan AI bill in the next decade (~80%) AI will be one of the 3 most important issues for Congress in the next decade (~80%) AI regulations are likely to lean in a highly populist direction, eg banning datacenters, massive prohibitive taxes on AI companies (~65%) The voters are hungry to hear politicians be anti-AI, and currently all of the oxygen in the room is towards solutions that are negative both for AI safety and the AI industry. Bores would likely have an outsized voice in the Democratic side of negotiations of whatever AI bill gets through the congressional sludge, for a few reasons: 1: Bores won the first election that hinged on AI issues, in a very high profile election and district with outsized media coverage. 2: Most house dems are giant boomers who know nothing about AI and are entirely happy to hand it off to a member they feel has more knowledge, and Bores has a master's degree in computer science. So in my view, a Bores victory significantly increases the chances that whatever AI regulation comes out of congress would be constructive towards the issues with AI while lowering the risk of totally destroying the industry. And AI is likely to be a giant political issue in the near future with huge implications on almost every part of society. Several people that I trust have talked to Bores 1 on 1 and they say he is quite smart and seems unusually honest and straightforward. He was also recognized by the Center for Effective Lawmaking as the most effective new NY lawmaker. He sponsored more bills than any other freshman and did the same as a sophomore and made 30 laws in the State Assembly. Combining his competence with his instant chops on AI could be really important in a Congress that can't ever do anything. Bores and his main opponent Micah Lasher are very similar ideologically, but Lasher is both a nonfactor on AI, the most important political issue, but also the totally anointed heir to Nadler who is backed by the whole NY establishment, while Bores is just a really effective new legislator. It would be good if more really effective legislators won over establishment heirs. If you live in this district and vote, or contact your friends in this district, you have a very serious possibility of affecting the outcome. This is a house primary with tiny turnout and many candidates, my estimate is that the winner will likely be decided by only a few thousand votes, and could plausibly be decided by hundreds of votes. This race is a massive outlier in that swinging very few votes can potentially have a huge impact on the world. Thanks for reading, and let me know if you have any questions!

Kalshi has created a new website that encourages users to submit AI generated comments to the CFTC supporting prediction markets.

Does Mustafa expect us to be excited that the rewards will go to X slop posters instead of actual users?

I am often critical of Kalshi but many of these these complaints about the Khamenei market are unfair. Kalshi's rules said that the market would resolve to the pre-death fair price from the beginning.

Pretty major misunderstandings of how Polymarket orderbooks work in the latest Paradigm article by @notnotstorm. One wonders if anyone there has actually used the website @danrobinson

Kalshi just closed and paid out a basketball game that's still ongoing

Pretty funny announcement

This proposal exposes Polymarket users to additional risks by lending out the underlying USDC. The yield accrues to others, so it provides no benefit to Polymarket users.

Attempted Kalshi-Polymarket arbitrageurs likely to lose both sides in the NM margin market due to a subtle difference in rounding between the two sites.