It's always funny how people get mad about fake Kalshi markets when there were real ones like this.
Most prediction markets journalists don't do any original research.
After the addition of maker fees on Kalshi combos, market makers have widened their spreads meaning that takers are bearing the cost of the fees.
Exactly what you'd expect from standard economic incidence analysis!
ALT Line and scatter plot titled 'Market Maker Edge for Select Uncorrelated Combos Relative to Pre-Fees Mean.' The y-axis shows edge change versus the pre-fee mean, in cents per contract; the x-axis spans August 18–22, 2026. Grey dots are hourly averages of market-maker edge on Kalshi combos priced between 20 and 80 cents, combining our fills with competitors' fills. A bold purple line is the fill-weighted 24-hour rolling average with a ±1 standard error band; a solid grey line marks zero (pre-fee baseline), a dashed vertical line marks the August 20 fee launch at 03:59 UTC, and an annotation marks the post mean of +0.42 cents. Before fees, the rolling line hovers near zero with slight upward drift. After fees go live, it climbs steeply for 12–18 hours, then holds flat near +0.4 cents: competitors moved prices about 0.4 cents further from our fair value once maker fees took effect.
Fees on Polymarket have effectively doubled with zero warning.
They quietly updated the formula in the docs to remove the p factor.
On average fees will be twice as high, but in some cases the difference will be nearly 100x
NEWSY: The White House confirms tonight that Elon Musk is NOT the administrator of DOGE and is not even technically part of it.
He's a "senior adviser to the president" like Anita Dunn, they say. storage.courtlistener.com/re…
Attempted Kalshi-Polymarket arbitrageurs likely to lose both sides in the NM margin market due to a subtle difference in rounding between the two sites.
Leaked email shows Kalshi growth exec @indsc2 tried to plant a news story containing false claims about wash trading and money laundering on Polymarket
Kalshi appears to be spreading misinformation about Poly behind the scenes.
There's some confusion about the volume and Open Interest on the Polymarket presidential election markets.
Volume is about $2.1B, but OI is $95m for Trump and $77m for Harris.
(Note that the OI will be greater than the TVL due to negrisk)