Full time prediction markets trader

Replying to @theMacroChip
At least they take feedback seriously
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Replying to @dan_bernstein_
It's always funny how people get mad about fake Kalshi markets when there were real ones like this. Most prediction markets journalists don't do any original research.
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After the addition of maker fees on Kalshi combos, market makers have widened their spreads meaning that takers are bearing the cost of the fees. Exactly what you'd expect from standard economic incidence analysis!
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Polymarket US seems to be going well...
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Kalshi has created a new website that encourages users to submit AI generated comments to the CFTC supporting prediction markets.
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Fees on Polymarket have effectively doubled with zero warning. They quietly updated the formula in the docs to remove the p factor. On average fees will be twice as high, but in some cases the difference will be nearly 100x
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Replying to @tomkysar
Would you consider this to be a good project thing to do?
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Kalshi just closed and paid out a basketball game that's still ongoing
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Pretty funny announcement
NEWSY: The White House confirms tonight that Elon Musk is NOT the administrator of DOGE and is not even technically part of it. He's a "senior adviser to the president" like Anita Dunn, they say. storage.courtlistener.com/re…
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Replying to @tomkysar
Truth machine is where you vote for what Robert Lesher tells you to vote for
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Attempted Kalshi-Polymarket arbitrageurs likely to lose both sides in the NM margin market due to a subtle difference in rounding between the two sites.
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Leaked email shows Kalshi growth exec @indsc2 tried to plant a news story containing false claims about wash trading and money laundering on Polymarket Kalshi appears to be spreading misinformation about Poly behind the scenes.
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Replying to @Squee451
US stopped tracking illiteracy rates because they dropped so low
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There's some confusion about the volume and Open Interest on the Polymarket presidential election markets. Volume is about $2.1B, but OI is $95m for Trump and $77m for Harris. (Note that the OI will be greater than the TVL due to negrisk)
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Most Polymarket users are net negative and only ~2k users have over $1k profit
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Replying to @ForecastEx
What does this even mean? I'd this actually practically different from a user perspective from Kalshi or Polymarket?
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Gizmodo Journalist @mjgault makes extremely basic math error in his hairpiece on Polymarket.
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Some very questionable claims in this resolution note from @Kalshi
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What did Tyler Cowen mean by "something like culture" driving ethnic Chinese success in Malaysia
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Green line is the total supply overlayed
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Replying to @shylockh @MorlockP
They reveal it, but only indirectly
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Because of this part of the paper
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.@MakikoSato6 is this your Polymarket account? 😮 0xb1dce46d7d5987c743d5378c503ed81e71937283
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