Size, Cycles, and Proof: What 20+ Years in Markets Actually Taught Me (September 15, 2026)
After more than two decades in markets—through the 2000 dot-com bust, 2008 financial crisis, 2018 the trade-war scare, 2020 Covid, and the 2022 bear—I have learned that most people lose not because they lack ideas, but because they size the wrong things, follow the wrong voices, and think in the wrong time frame.
I have been in this field since I left university. What follows is not theory. It is what I have seen work, and what I have seen destroy people. If you are new or still struggling, please take some time to read:
1. Never let small, speculative stocks dominate your portfolio
Small names are usually stories, not businesses. Influencers love pumping them because “10x” sounds exciting. Most never deliver. Even the rare winners often suffer 70–90% drawdowns before any recovery. That volatility is hard to stomach and even harder to recover from if the position is large.
I hold a basket of small stocks myself, but they never add up to no more than 2% of the whole portfolio. Not 2% each. Two percent in total. Size them like lottery tickets. Once the hype fades, capital in those names is often trapped for a long time. Evaluate the risk before you speculate.
2. Focus on world-class companies that fit the narratives of each bull cycle.
Every bull market has a handful of exceptional businesses that keep making higher highs because the narrative is real. Do your own fundamental work and technical analysis to find them first. Then, follow people who share selflessly and have a proven track record. The best proof is not talk. It is screenshots that show both percentage gains and actual dollar amounts. Percentage alone can be theater. Amounts show whether the person actually sized the idea.
If you have genuine long-term conviction in a quality name, always use drawdowns to add and accumulate instead of chasing high or when most are pumping on social media.
3. Sizing is the real skill, the most important one which brings you financial freedom
A tiny position in a great company is tourism. A large position in a weak or speculative name steals sleep and distorts every decision.
So, at least 50% of the portfolio should sit in high-quality, liquid, cycle-aligned leaders unless you deliberately choose to be an adventurer and accept the volatility. Big volatility can mean big gains—but only if you can actually hold.
For myself, my top conviction stocks are
$PLTR,
$AMD and
$NVDA, accounting for more than 90% in my various portfolios in total.
4. Fundamentals matter, but tracking whales matters more
Most retail investors care about the fundamental research but unfortunately, the numbers most people see reflect the last quarter. Markets look 3–6 months ahead. Track institutional and whale ownership. Large, careful capital usually loads up before the story is obvious.
Follow proven capital, not retail consensus. That is how markets have always worked.
5. Invest across 3- to 10-year cycles, not weeks or months.
Wealth is built in cycles, especially in the ugly parts of them. A short time frame is closer to a casino. Frequent trading usually funds excitement, not net worth. The stocks that delivered 100x or more did so over a decade or two. They survived 2000, 2008, 2018, Covid, and 2022. Each time permabears said it was the end. Historically the bear phases have been shorter than the expansions. Dips are inventory events if you have dry powder.
6. Treat crises as the moment to add, not the moment to freeze.
The people who come out far ahead are rarely fully invested at the top. They had cash and the willingness to buy when prices were ugly. If you believe in the business for a decade, a deep decline is often the best entry you will get. Learn to welcome those periods—when most people are losing confidence and losing their minds.
Great businesses often come out of a crisis bigger and stronger. That is why the focus should stay on world-class companies with real fundamentals. To me, stock selection matters more than any indicator or piece of technical analysis.
Rich people do not get rich because they blindly follow private-bank managers or do better technical analysis. They get rich because they pick the right companies and are willing, over the long term, to bet against weak consensus and mediocre fund management. Crisis is not the time to abandon quality. It is the time to own more of it.
Markets reward patience, size discipline, and the courage to buy when the story feels finished. They punish haste, oversized speculation, and the need to feel clever every week. If you remember only a few things, remember these: keep the speculative basket at 3% or less in total, put real weight in world-class companies, follow people who can show both percentage and dollar results, and think in cycles of years, not weeks. Crisis is not the end of the game. For those with conviction and dry powder, it is usually the beginning of the next fortune. Stay solvent. Stay selective. Stay long enough.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I am sharing my own research and experience only.
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