$BTC stuck around $85K. $ASST stuck around $30. $SATA keeps printing. At first glance, not much is happening. But for Strive, this setup may actually be close to ideal. → $SATA keeps raising capital → Bitcoin can be accumulated at cheaper prices → Warrants convert with relatively limited dilution above the share price → More $BTC can be added before the next leg higher Sometimes you don’t want the price to run immediately. You want time to accumulate. Strive is getting exactly that.

This is unheard of, by the way. 2013, with BTC around $25, a Bitcointalk user fits a power law in Excel - and never touches it again. 13.6 years later his line is still within ~12% of spot. That's Nostradamus territory. But it's not actually magic. It's just real statistics on a unique network asset.

As a $MSTR shareholder, why do I also invest in $ASST? It is estimated that $ASST acquired 1,522 Bitcoin this week via the SATA ATM. This is a 5.77% increase to their balance sheet which currently sits at 26,355 BTC. For $MSTR to achieve the same growth in the same week, they would need to buy 48,814 BTC to add to their 846,000 stack. 48,814 BTC = $4.1 billion. This is one of the key reasons why I own $ASST. It is far easier for them to grow my Bitcoin per share.

INTRODUCING THE MONSTER MODEL 🚨📈📊 The laboratory-grade corporate treasury and Bitcoin simulator. The Monster Model is a fully parameterized discrete non-linear dynamical system that models the complex reflexive interactions between @Strategy, @Strive, and #Bitcoin in a unified framework. Key features: → 345 input parameters. Everything from assumed weekly $STRC / $SATA net proceeds to target amplification range, mNAV variant, and Bitcoin hodler flows is included. Parameters that don't currently apply to your configuration disable or disappear on their own. → 159 plottable series. This includes the basics like $MSTR and $ASST share price, Bitcoin price, shares outstanding, BTC reserve, USD assets, Duration, mNAV, and amplification, as well as metrics that are novel to the Monster Model such as $STRK effective in-the-money value, effective sats per share, expected break-even time horizon (EBETH), and Bitcoin's expected one-year forward return. Expected-return premiums for MSTR and ASST, based on work by @stonychambers, are also provided. → 36 charts. MSTR and BTC price, BTC reserve, BTC flows, shares outstanding, modeled BTC liquid/illiquid supply, net proceeds, market cap, USD and months of coverage, reserve valuations, mNAV, amplification, sats per share, convertible bond tracking, and more. → Powered by a bespoke supply-and-demand price clearing model of the Bitcoin ecosystem. The featured method for modeling Bitcoin tracks projected mining emissions, lost coins, Strategy and Strive's own purchases, hodler withdrawals from liquid float into illiquid storage, and releases from illiquid storage back into the liquid float — cleared against a demand trajectory, week by week, into a price. Switch it on and the treasury companies' own buying pressure feeds back into the prices they pay. → 6 Bitcoin price paths, or compose your own. If you prefer a static price path instead of a dynamic one, the Monster Model offers a menu of choices: @Giovann35084111 Santostasi's classic power law; the Bitcoin. com and BitcoinFairPrice variants; @Saylor, @Shirishjajodia and @CJ_Bitcoin's Bitcoin24; @TheRealPlanC's Q1 power law floor; Stephen Perrenod's (@moneyordebt) 8-parameter log-periodic curve. Or build a custom path out of normalized variants of a power law, an S or Gompertz adoption curve, a linear incline, a periodic wave, a decaying exponential, and Perrenod's 8-parameter curve. → Full convertible bond accounting. Every bond either company has ever issued or held, retired ones included, with Black-Scholes option deltas producing a novel share accounting method alongside BSO, ADSO and FDSO: *effective* shares outstanding. Parameters govern how eagerly holders exercise puts and conversions, and whether Strategy calls as soon as the bonds' 30% premium condition permits. → 5 mNAV variants. Multiple of enterprise value (mEV), plus three variants of price-to-book (P/B) that use basic, effective, and assumed-diluted treatments, plus the recently introduced fully diluted multiple of Net Reserve (mNR) in which out-of-the-money convertibles count as debt rather than as future shares. Picking a variant automatically selects the matching share count *and* liability treatment, so the numerator and denominator can never quietly disagree. → 5 ways to drive mNAV forward in time. A constant expansion scalar that gaps and holds; a multiple of break-even mNAV; a parameterized oscillating sinusoid (with or without a decaying amplitude); a linear rise (or fall) towards a terminal mNAV; or an experimental sentiment algorithm built on fast and slow SMAs plus week-over-week Bitcoin moves. → Weekly time steps, aligned to the filings. Strategy and Strive announce by 8-K, so the model breathes at that cadence. Quarterly bond interest and monthly preferred dividends land where they actually land, and the rhythm between capital raises is visible instead of averaged away. → Real history back to 2024. Common share issuance, BSO, ADSO and BTC holdings, taken from Strategy's 8-Ks — used exactly from mid-November 2024 forward, when the filings became regular. The earlier filings are sparser, so a few of those weeks are interpolated to smooth the gaps between them. (Strive's history starts in September 2025, with weekly 8-K coverage from June 2026.) → An experimental credit collateral subsystem. Adoption curves for Bitcoin pledged against credit, with carry spreads, eligible and pledged fractions, and lender LTV — and some of that credit recycling back into Bitcoin demand. → STRC volume cycle modeling. If you expect STRC to trade at or above par into its record dates on rising volume, this parameterized sub-model reproduces that rhythm in its projected capital raises. Otherwise, index either an initial weekly net proceeds estimate or a fraction of the total notional value to a growth curve of your choice. → One-off equity events. Drop a hypothetical issuance or buyback — any share count, any price, any future week — and watch the proceeds, or the funding deficit, propagate through the same allocation rules as everything else. Try using it to explore the potential impacts of various levels of exercise on Strive's outstanding warrants. → 472 modeled series across 8 interconnected systems: convertible debt, preferred equities, common equity, Bitcoin price dynamics, USD assets, the BTC reserve, mNAV, and amplification. — And the model is only half of it. The other half is a premium-grade visualization panel built for tweaking and customization. → Automatic or manual recalculation. Change any assumption and the entire system re-solves in a fraction of a second. Or, switch to Manual mode and queue up several changes to see their combined effect in a single run. → A chart grid you arrange yourself. Drag to reorder, insert a slot anywhere, delete several at once with undo, star your favorites. Stretch charts to fit, or size them to the pixel. Embiggen one to the full pane and the rest stop recomputing behind it. → Charts that follow your parameters. Set Bitcoin to a static curve and the supply series leave the reserve charts, because supply plays no part in that model. Switch amplification from a ratio to a multiple and the axis, the tick format, the series and its target band all change together, in one step. → Pin a reading and watch it move. Hover a chart to read every visible series at that date; press to pin it in place. It holds while you change parameters, with a column reporting how far each series moved since the last run — so you watch a number move instead of remembering it. Synchronize the grid and one press freezes every chart at a single date. → Six auto-saving workspaces: five yours, plus a sandbox that catches links other people send you. Keep the bull, base, and bear cases side by side. Give them custom names, copy between them, reset a single tab, export them to JSON and carry them to another machine. → Shareable links. Your entire parameter set, encoded into the URL. A scenario that differs from the defaults in a dozen places travels in about 50 characters — it records only what you changed and packs each value into the fewest bits its own range allows. It arrives in a reserved sandbox workspace, so opening someone else's scenario never disturbs yours. → Copy any chart as an image. Not a screenshot — composed for the purpose, with its own title, legend and margins, none of the surrounding interface, your hidden series still hidden, your log axes still logarithmic, and your pinned readout included. → Live prices. History ends on the last completed week, so the week you're actually in is a live row: mNAV, amplification and reserve value reflect where things stand right now rather than at last Monday's close. Switch it off for the neutral "what if nothing else happens" baseline, or when conducting controlled parameter impact analysis. → Operable entirely from the keyboard. Not most of it — every control, every menu, every modal. Including lifting a chart off the grid and walking it to a new slot with the arrow keys, or even repositioning a readout within a single chart. → It even works on your phone. The model was built for a big screen and that is still where it shines, but the mobile version keeps the core of it: tap a chart and the marker lands on that date; drag to sweep it with every value updating as it goes; tap again to pin. Tap anywhere else you would normally click on desktop. → ~42,000 words of documentation, delivered where you need it. Every one of the parameters, every plottable series and every chart carries a written description on hover — not parked on a docs page you have to go and find. — A word on how this was built. The framework began as a Google Sheets workbook in late summer 2025, built by hand. I had two rules: no formula went in unless I understood how it worked and believed it earned its place; and AI was never allowed to operate on the spreadsheet itself. The site is that workbook translated into TypeScript and given a thoughtful interface. AI was used heavily and deliberately throughout that process. I spent 18 years in high-performance computing. That work teaches you one thing above all others: numerical integrity comes first — even before performance — and a number nobody checked is not a result. AI is very good at producing numbers nobody checked. So every step of the way, the TypeScript output was validated against the source workbook row by row, series by series. Not a spot check. I've invested over 1,600 hours in the project, the vast majority of that in the last five months. I've never worked harder on anything in my life. — The Monster Model is live at monstermodels.live. No account, no signup — and your scenarios never leave your browser unless you want them to. For the best experience, I recommend using a desktop or laptop browser. Please give it a try and tell me what you think! And if you like the tool, please consider reposting this announcement. This has been an incredible journey, but my hope is that this is just the beginning. Thank you all for your support! 🧡

$ASSX is launching tomorrow: the T-REX 2X Long ASST Daily Target ETF. Strive, Inc. ($ASST) is the bitcoin treasury company that trades like one: it moves on bitcoin, on capital raises, on short interest. $ASSX is built to trade that daily move. The objective is 200% of one day's move in $ASST, reset at every close. Hold longer than a day and compounding drives the result, not 2X. @Strive Prospectus: sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/…

He's back @JulianAssange

The $ASST warrant story has a second-order effect. If ~$700M of warrant capital enters and reduces amplification… Restoring the balance sheet to roughly the same amplification level could create around $750M of additional $SATA issuance capacity. Capital creates Bitcoin. Bitcoin creates balance-sheet capacity. Capacity creates more capital. $ASST $SATA $BTC @PunterJeff

UBS expects HBM to stay undersupplied into 2030 and possibly beyond. AI demand continues to outrun available wafer capacity. $MU $SKHY High-bandwidth memory consumes far more silicon per bit than standard DRAM, so the shortage is structural rather than cyclical. That dynamic supports pricing power for the three main producers. Micron is expanding its HBM4 presence and is increasingly treated as a viable third supplier. Samsung and SK Hynix still control the bulk of the market.

stunningly simple

There are currently 134 unfilled gaps on QQQ. This isn't a fucking thing.

$MU $SKHY $DRAM Morgan Stanley, Shawn Kim on Memory Last Month (June) "This demand is running into a supply chain that cannot respond quickly. New memory capacity takes years to build, qualify and ramp up. Supply relief is a process, not a switch. And that creates a two-tier market. Large AI and cloud buyers can sign long-term agreements, prepay and secure priority access. Traditional buyers, including PC makers, smartphone makers and industrial hardware companies, must compete for what remains." "AI memory use is climbing fast, and at every scale. A newer AI chip uses 7.2 times more HBM than earlier generations. A full system uses about 65 times more. Across an entire AI data center buildout, the jump gets even bigger. HBM has gone from roughly 10 terabytes in 2020 to about 18 petabytes in 2026, orders of magnitude more." "The pressure is coming from AI infrastructure buildouts. We see servers accounting for 59 percent of DRAM demand by 2028, up from 37 percent in 2023. We also see enterprise solid-state drives reaching 65 percent of NAND demand, up from 18 percent. And simply put, data centers are taking a much bigger share of the memory pie."

My prediction on $AAPL / CXMT and the future of Memory. Everyone's panicking about $AAPL lobbying to buy CXMT memory. I want to show you what the patterns have shown before, using a resource China already ran this exact playbook with: Tungsten. Memory pricing ripped, $AAPL and the hyperscalers are calling it gouging, and $AAPL is now reportedly leaning on the Trump admin for permission to buy DRAM from China's CXMT to get out from under $MU, $000660 (SK Hynix) and $005930 (Samsung). The unspoken threat is that China undercuts the West on memory and the whole supercycle unwinds. We have already seen this movie. It was called Tungsten. China holds somewhere around 82-90% of global tungsten. The lazy bear case is the exact same arguement that people are now saying about memory: China owns it, China floods it, the price dies. It's a lie. Here's what actually happened instead. First, they stopped selling it. Chinese raw APT exports to the West hit zero in early 2026. Not trimmed, ZERO. And it wasn't just tungsten, it was gallium, germanium, antimony, then sulfuric acid, each one added to the list, the direction only ever tightening. Then the twist nobody had in their model. The country sitting on 90% of the supply started importing it aggressively. > Concentrates: imports up 153% yoy, value up 738%. > APT: imports up 995%, value up 878%. > Total tungsten IMPORTS: up 98%, value up 336%. Sit with that. The dominant producer on earth is buying tungsten off Rwanda, Bolivia, Portugal, whoever will sell, and paying up to a 738% premium? The reason is the whole point: sitting on the reserves is not the same as having spare to sell. Chinese ore grades are falling, quotas got cut, domestic mine auctions failed because the rock wasn't worth digging, and home demand (tungsten wire for solar, defence, tooling, chips) went vertical. They can't even feed themselves. So they killed exports and turned net importer in the same breath. Now line that up against memory. Owning the most on paper means nothing if your own demand swallows everything you make. "We'll just sell it cheap to the West" only works if you have a surplus, and a net importer paying 738% premiums does not have a surplus. They're fighting for the same scarce supply as everyone else. CXMT is the same story. The read across the industry is that CXMT can't cover China's own memory demand this decade, let alone export commodity DRAM cheaply into the US. It's the tungsten flood thesis wearing a different jacket, and it'll age just as badly. And the "cheap Chinese memory" pitch falls apart on the details anyway: $CXMT sits roughly three years back on process, G4 DDR5 around 1znm-class while the big three run 1a/1b. With no EUV access, that gap on advanced nodes and HBM stacking is structural, not something they close in a couple of quarters. The "affordable" CXMT DDR5 angle looks like a myth too, the pricing reportedly lands right alongside Samsung, Hynix and $MU. So even if $AAPL gets its waiver, it pays roughly the same price for a worse, later part, just to wriggle out of an LTA, while handing Huawei the China market advantage (Huawei already taps CXMT and has its own memory fab through the SwaySure JV). So for anyone holding memory, whether $AAPL actually onboards CXMT or not is basically noise. CXMT's output is already fully spoken for inside China. Nothing is flooding anywhere. It's a thin price arbitrage trade being marketed as an existential threat, the same way people spent a year waiting for China to turn the tungsten taps back on. They never did. Marco Rubio quote this in 2022, when $AAPL originally tried to buy from YMTC - "Apple was playing with fire, they are subject to scrutiny like it has never seen from the dereal government" - fast foward 4 years later and hes one of Trumps closest confidants. And honestly, the $AAPL angle reads as weakness, not strength. When a consumer hardware giant has to lobby its own government for access to a rival's inferior memory because it can't stomach paying for the resource the entire AI stack now runs on, that tells you exactly where the leverage sits, and it isn't with the buyer. How I'm trading it: these " $AAPL runs to China " headlines are setup to push memory names down short term. That's the gift, not the risk. Any deep flush in Samsung, Hynix or $MU on this stuff, I will keep dip buying on, because the one fact that actually matters (China can't supply its own memory demand, exactly like tungsten) hasn't moved an inch. The fud everyone keeps modelling isn't coming back. Tungsten already ran this experiment and told us what happens when you bet on China flooding something it can't even supply itself. Memory's about to hand the same lesson to everyone still long the gouging story. NFA. DYOR. Any pushback is welcome, as I might be wrong.

Yes

Pretty much go to bed and wake up thinking about this clip Lives in my head

Metaplanet had several drawbacks in the past.. even one of -%80 in Aug 2024. Im sure people were very scared to buy at 💴 58 after stock was 💴 300

This post is approaching 1 million likes It’s just Charlie Kirk with his family There are literally no words to describe how angry I still am. I can’t even sleep.

Mood

In the past two days, I bought over 4,400 shares of $MTPLF at an average of $6.28. And it seems like we hit the bottom.. ✅ RSI was oversold ✅ Hit the 100 MA ✅ Fundamentals strong It was in deep value territory and I couldn't resist. But I will continue to buy on the way up.. WE'RE GOING HIGHER. Holding for the longterm 🤙🏽

2nd lowest Daily RSI for @metaplanet 3350 $MTPLF since 2023. We fill another daily gap near 965. I know this is scary for most people, but this is when you buy the dip and if you can't it's time to get outside and touch grass. This is not when you sell. I apologize for not marking this up better but I can't sit in front of my computer because of a recent surgery.

$STRC is now trading on Fidelity under the ticker $MCSTP