Why hasn't it happened yet?
To achieve r>1 liftoff, it's not enough to be smart. The first replicants need originality and insight. They need a market niche that:
...agents can serve
...but is not yet commoditized; they need paying customers, so they can't do something people know how to ask ChatGPT to do for free
...and which is not a venture-scale opportunity, otherwise human-led cos will do it and (for now) beat the solo machine
...and on top of all that, you need the agent to find *new* such niches
In other words, the agent itself needs some esoteric knowledge. It needs a good answer to the Thiel question, "what do you believe that few others believe"?
Nobody has achieved this yet. Close attempts include Felix and
@0xSigil's Automaton, both from Jan/Feb 2026, and iLands. In any case, the models are much smarter now...