RT @anasalhajji: 🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯Wooow… now the FT is saying what I was saying in March about Hormuz, and what I said last year about Greenland…

Zervos advising Bessent, oh no 🥹

Jensen has been behind the idea that chips are an "investable asset class". We know he's going all out in creating financing structures for the chips, and now... he's looking to insure against losses. Why? Because the chips may not cover the value of the loans. 🧐 "One idea under discussion is insurance against losses on loans to upstart cloud computing companies, or “neoclouds”, if they default and the Nvidia chips pledged against their debt cannot be resold for enough to repay lenders." - FT

Trump on AI risks being overblown, to some extent true $nvda

The race for AGI Script: Sherpa by Pocket FM Video: Seedance 2.5

Big Short investor Steve Eisman says the AI labs know they have no moats and are manufacturing a crisis to get regulation that hands them a duopoly "I think this is all nonsense." [ You think it's all nonsense? ] "All nonsense. I think that there's something else completely going on here. ... What I think is happening is that token maxing is over. The open weight models are taking big market share. I think these companies are very nervous. They realize that there are no moats around their business whatsoever, and they're trying to manufacture a crisis that will create regulation, and that they think they can then manipulate to create the moats, to create the duopoly that they want." [ Wow. ] "That's what I think is going on." "Honestly, I think this whole Terminator thing is garbage. That's for sure."

The FOMC will decide tomorrow how many rate hikes are needed to re-open Hormuz 🥹

Warren Buffett is considered the ultimate fundamental investor, but people misunderstand what made him successful. Early in his career, Buffett had a genuine information edge. Financial data was difficult to obtain, few investors carefully studied balance sheets, and cheap companies could remain undiscovered for years. Simply reading every annual report and calculating the real value of a business gave him an enormous advantage. Today, everyone has the same numbers. Every financial statement is instantly available. Thousands of analysts, algorithms, and artificial intelligence systems can compare valuations within seconds. Knowing that a company trades at eight times earnings or below book value is no longer an edge. It is merely information. This may explain why many investors influenced by Buffett, including Bill Ackman, David Einhorn, and other traditional value investors, have struggled to consistently outperform in recent years. They learned the visible part of Buffett’s process: study the accounts, calculate intrinsic value, and buy when the price appears cheap. But once everybody learned the method, much of its advantage disappeared. Buffett himself understood this transition. With Charlie Munger’s influence, he moved away from buying statistically cheap but mediocre businesses and toward buying exceptional companies whose future value could not be fully captured by a spreadsheet. The edge moved from quantity to quality. The most important questions today are often the ones that cannot be answered precisely with numbers. Is the chief executive changing? Is the culture improving? Do customers genuinely love the product? Is public perception completely disconnected from reality? Is management about to become more disciplined? Has the market misunderstood how people will behave? These things cannot always be placed neatly into a model, but they matter no less than revenue, margins, and cash flow. In many cases, they matter more because the numbers only describe what has already happened, while qualitative changes determine what happens next. This is why most investment posts on X are worthless. They repeat numbers, announce that something is cheap, and present publicly available information as analysis. But everyone can see those numbers. Every analyst knows them. Every algorithm has already processed them. Every artificial intelligence system can explain the same apparent valuation within seconds. Repeating the obvious is not an edge. The modern investor’s advantage is not having more data. It is understanding what the data cannot yet show. The edge is recognizing a change in human behavior, management, psychology, positioning, or perception before that change appears in the financial statements. Numbers tell us where the company has been. Qualitative judgment tells us where it may be going.

My dick is so long it touches the ground after adjusting for lying face down

We must be getting close to a "Liz Truss Meme Bottom"😆

did the other $900 billion decide they didn't want to?

Me and the boys heading out to buy all the above ground available silver after hearing trump is giving out over $1,000,000,000,000 in stimulus checks

I resigned from Bloomberg today. I spent the last three years turning routine market volatility into existential crises at both Bloomberg and Reuters. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to maximum-engagement doomerism and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below. 🧵

The nutz move is for Dems to offer $10k, force Trump to raise and crash the bond market…

노엘 목소리에서 구슬 굴러가는 소리가 나는데 어카죠... 첫 소절부터 마지막까지 모든 게 완벽해 나 이거 듣고 529000번째 사랑에 빠졌어요 정말 사랑해

We are in a good position. If AI doesn't live up to all the hype, we are screwed. If it does, we are also screwed 🤣

Crazy chart from the amazing Michael Cembalest of JP Morgan. 6% of GDP US current account deficit here we come ...

I just found out that The Ben Bernanke works at Anthropic now and I can't let this one go 🥹🌳🙏

𝗣𝗢𝗦𝗜𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡𝗜𝗡𝗚: 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗠𝗢𝗦𝗧 𝗜𝗠𝗣𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗔𝗡𝗧 𝗧𝗛𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗬𝗢𝗨 𝗡𝗘𝗘𝗗 𝗧𝗢 𝗨𝗡𝗗𝗘𝗥𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗡𝗗 The most important thing to understand about a stock, an event, or the entire market is positioning. Where are all the players already positioned? This does not mean the event isn’t real. It doesn’t mean the macro situation isn’t bad or that the war with Iran isn’t dangerous. It means markets do not move based only on whether the news is good or bad. Markets move based on whether there are still buyers or sellers left to act on that news. We saw it at peak fear during the war with Iran. We saw it during the financial crisis. And we see it every day in individual stocks. You don’t even have to go that far. Look at the current obsession with a 10% drawdown. Everyone keeps repeating that every midterm-election year had a 10% drawdown. That fear has already pushed hedge-fund exposure to extremely low levels. That positioning is more important than the prediction itself. If positioning is already extremely bearish, much of the fear is already reflected in the market. This does not mean the market cannot fall another 2%, 3%, or 4%. It means many potential sellers have already sold. The supply of new sellers is becoming exhausted. At the end of the day, markets fall because people sell and rise because people buy. If almost everyone who wanted to sell has already sold, even terrible news may struggle to push the market much lower. You need new sellers, not another person on television repeating the same bearish argument. The opposite is equally important. If everyone is optimistic and already positioned max long, who is left to buy? $TSLA is a great example. Tesla may be a great company, and we have been hearing that robotics are coming for the past four years, yet the stock has gone nowhere. Why? Because everyone who loves Tesla is already in the stock. Everyone who believes in robotics is already in the stock. The story may eventually be right, but if everyone is already positioned for it, there are very few new buyers left to push the stock higher. The entire market cycle can be explained through positioning: 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗽𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘀𝗺, when almost everyone has already sold. 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝗸𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗺, as cautious investors slowly begin buying. 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘀𝗺, when the majority is already invested. 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗱𝗶𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗲𝘂𝗽𝗵𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗮, when everyone is positioned max long and there is nobody left to buy. So, if there is one thing you should learn to understand, it is this: 𝗣𝗢𝗦𝗜𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡𝗜𝗡𝗚. 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗪𝗛𝗔𝗧 𝗜𝗦 𝗛𝗔𝗣𝗣𝗘𝗡𝗜𝗡𝗚, 𝗕𝗨𝗧 𝗪𝗛𝗢 𝗛𝗔𝗦 𝗔𝗟𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗗𝗬 𝗔𝗖𝗧𝗘𝗗 𝗢𝗡 𝗜𝗧.