I am not Al Gore Climate change is not real Bush 2000 #StopTheStealButIts2000 I did not invent the internet I love Florida

WVU
Coming soon: The Happy Warrior. An electoral alternate history.
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Holy fuck he needs to be recalled as soon as he's sworn in
Xavier Becerra, the Democratic candidate for California governor, has taken substantial corporate funding from oil companies like Chevron. He assured us that he won’t take money from just any company, though. Watch the full interview: sf.news/3VVgRcN
Oh my god. This is so visceral. I feel so horrible for this woman.
Jesus Christ dude
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Only mustering a 3-point lead in an internal...😬
Inbox: Ken Paxton for Senate Releases New Internal Poll: Paxton Leads James Talarico by Three Points as Undecided Voters Break His Way "Paxton now leads Talarico 48% to 45% among likely voters, and his ballot share has climbed four points since the primary."
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This is incredible lmfao
A phenomenal moment in the Senate. Eric Schmitt, R-Mo., claims he has evidence Jack Smith went to a HAWKS game in Atlanta. Smith denies it. Schmitt declares he has busted Jack Smith for perjury. Smith, vexed, says he went to HAWKEYES game in Maryland. Watch the whole thing:
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Replying to @michigeese
The race would be Lean R if he was the Democratic nominee and a tossup if Bankhead had dropped out
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Was expecting a blue bias about this much with Marist. Is consistent with my thought that there's about a 2% delta between Brown and Acton.
OHIO POLL By NPR/Marist (A) SENATE 🟦 Sherrod Brown: 51% 🟥 Jon Husted (i): 43% —— GOVERNOR 🟦 Amy Acton: 50% 🟥 Vivek Ramaswamy: 44% 9/24-27| RV maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/…
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In the 2016 election, Texas was closer than Iowa and almost as close as Ohio
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In 2020, it was closer than both
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10/10 election nerd tweet but Peltola-Sullivan gonna be interesting in 2026.
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Here’s a fun little brain-breaker: Kamala Harris won non-college educated, non-Evangelical white voters by about 7 points in 2024.
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It's really crazy how every election would be a comfortable Democratic win if you take out Evangelicals
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Our SD-1 poll is going to close at 1PM tomorrow, our polling team has decided: we have a really good, large, reflective sample of the electorate. Currently, Senator Chapman (R) leads by 5.9%. That's pretty in line with our forecast, which puts her up 6.6%.
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Is there a reason (beyond population) why so few responses are from the southernmost county?
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Entirely population. Marshall County is just 8.6% of the district's population. It's very sparsely populated in the eastern part of the county.
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Rough predictions for the Senate elections by congressional district
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Mark Warner outruns Spanberger?
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Replying to @AlDefinitely
va 5 i would put as tilt r for now though honestly
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For House I have it at Lean R but I think Warner narrowly wins it
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We also asked Trump/Morrissey approval numbers here, which will be released when the full poll is ready, and duudeee....
WV SD-1 2024 Presidential: Trump +39 WV SD-1 poll right now (1 hour in): R +5 34 point swing to Democrats from 2024 presidential. But WV voters love splitting their tickets for state Democrats and Fluharty outran Harris by 27 points in WV HD-5 in 2024. Not surprised so far.
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Trump only barely above water and Morrisey significantly under?
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Absolutely not. Fuck off, don't give this guy money. He can't win.
UT-02 POLL - Crosby (Dem) internal 🟦 Peter Crosby: 35% 🟥 Blake Moore: 32% 9/21-23 | 657 LV petercrosbyforcongress.org/p…
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Underestimate Shawn Fluharty at your own peril. He's popular in Wheeling. Fluharty won by 15% in 2024 even as Trump won his district by 13%. He's a force to be reckoned with.
Replying to @ChazNuttycombe
The map stopped populating new responses at N=120, took us a bit to try and get it to populate the new responses as they came in. But this looks like a race.
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Side note but it's insane how sparsely populated eastern (and southern) Marshall County is. You leave Moundsville and it's just nothing.
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Replying to @AlDefinitely
That’s a very comfortable win for Republicans in Kansas. Don’t trust the polls or vibes?
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Kansas's congressional gerrymander means that that map could be anywhere from R+4 to D+D+4, but I think Marshall wins by about 3.
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Thinking about trying for my polisci doctorate at UVA in a couple years; @LarrySabato @JMilesColeman should I?
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You may not know that Hitler's "Final Solution" wasn't actually its full name. The full name was the "Final Solution to the Jewish Question".
This week, @christopherrufo tackle the Indian Question. Among other things, this episode cuts to the heart of longstanding foundational political disputes that are simply unreconcilable, but which can longer be brushed aside. Namely that some people (perhaps most people) prefer to live in a homogenous society, and as America tips toward a majority-minority country, that fundamental preference is under threat. For a long time, liberals, who have more cosmopolitan preferences, have been able to pathologize the desire for homogeneity and subdue any explicit political effort to maintain a white majority in the country. A great many conservatives are no longer willing to be silent on this question. They are going to actively assert their preferences, and Indians, while relatively small in total number are nonetheless the fasting growing foreign born demographic in the country and the most conspicuous element of the 21st century mass immigration regime, and are therefore the inevitable flashpoint for this debate. *This episode we also took input from our Indian/South Asian friends @balajis, @razibkhan, @Indian_Bronson, and a secret 4th Indian.
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Rahm Emanuel will be the Mike Bloomberg of 2028, guaranteed.
Underestimate @RahmEmanuel at your own risk. He knows how to win. He knows how to fight. And he knows how to message. And no one will out work him. Regardless of whether he wins the Democratic nomination in 2028 he will make an impact on the race. You can be sure of that. Don't take your eyes off of him. At the minimum, learn from him. Rahm Emanuel Makes His 2026 Play nytimes.com/2026/09/26/us/po…
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