The test for any regulatory change is this: do the long-term productivity gains outweigh the short-term adjustment costs?
The card surcharge ban fails that test.
Change comes at a direct cost - businesses pay for advice, compliance and new systems.
Reacting to change also takes focus away from building the business - uncertainty can be paralysing.
Do I also want simpler pricing? Absolutely.
Could businesses with stable costs, productivity growth and strong profits absorb the fees? Yes.
But we don’t have that economy at all - so this is shocking timing for this.
The challenges we face demand deregulation - and if we can’t do that, we should just constrain spending.
Because more rules without the productivity payoff just leads to more inflation - and that’s the last thing we need right now.
Our PM is financially illiterate.
Banning the surcharge doesn’t remove the cost.
Businesses still pay to accept cards - they just can’t show it as a line item.
Expect higher prices, minimum spends and cash discounts.
Lower prices come from lower taxes, lower input costs and higher productivity.
This change delivers none of those, so there will be unintended consequences.
Costs are likely to be simpler, but higher.