The gap between insane model capabilities and somewhat ho-hum real-world consequences of those capabilities continues to interest me.
The AI prophets seem to have nailed the rate of model improvement but overrated the near-term impact. The unemployment rate is low, financially or infrastructurally devastating cyber attacks seem blessedly rare, etc.
Maybe we’re in a kind of Engel’s Pause but for real-world consequences, or maybe the better theory is some kind of Messy World Hypothesis where it’s really really hard for new technology to leave its mark, bc the world as it exists is a museum of inertias and frictions.
After a brief but institution-eroding slop science era, it increasingly looks like we are going to have two revolutions from AI:
1) Everything ever published will be re-read and re-judged in ways that human scientists never anticipated
2) Novel discoveries will start to come fast