Rabbit of Caerbannog. Opinions well reasoned and indisputably correct. The joke is sometimes on me. Lawyer supporting short activists and whistleblowers.
North Shore of Boston
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People sometimes call me mean, but I'll never get within light years of Kevin Williamson. Hats off.
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Heck of a tippee chain in this insider trading case brought by the SEC. $YMAB Husband to wife to law partner to cousin. (Again, we're in the waning days of the SEC fiscal year so expect lots of stuff to get pushed out in the next week.) Link ⬇️
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And here is the kicker for you, the victim. When your Ponzi fraudster gets caught the government won't stop them from moving, spending, hiding, or burning the money they stole from you. A gross abrogation of the SEC's fundamental mission.
In a shameless plea, SEC Enforcement Director David Woodcock and Chair Paul Atkins argue that no one should read the SEC's Fiscal 2026 results. Not surprising. The SEC's 2026 stats are abysmal. No hitter batting .150 ever thought much of batting averages.
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This is as unsurprising as any news ever. Fucking awful, to be clear, but visible from the first days of the administration.
In a shameless plea, SEC Enforcement Director David Woodcock and Chair Paul Atkins argue that no one should read the SEC's Fiscal 2026 results. Not surprising. The SEC's 2026 stats are abysmal. No hitter batting .150 ever thought much of batting averages.
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The yellow highlights are pointing out - a good thing - NHJ's implicit criticism of teachers' unions. But what jumps out to me (in red) is the fundamental flaw that runs through all of this - abandoning your duty to your child out of ideological commitment.
It makes me sick to my stomach to see. Such a fundamental betrayal of our first and only job as parents.
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People are complicated. Meet the man who doesn’t like JD Vance because he tolerates antisemitism AND he married a Hindu.
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Know nothing about these companies, but if I were looking for a short, I might focus on companies that tout their stock in mobile gaming app ads.
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Others can comment on the strength of the report - market likes it, down about six percent right now. I want to focus on the "mini-disclaimer."
Glad to see shorts recognizing, in the wake of Left's disclaimer being ignored by the court, there is the need for SOME disclaimer in every version of publication.
I like this a lot because it focuses on the two most significant disclaimer issues: benefitting from a drop and risk management.
How you handle this depends heavily on how you present things on social media. Are you doing a thread? Then maybe a larger version at the end works well at low cost. Doing a long form single tweet like this? Excellent approach here. I do think a link to the report (even duplicative) would add value, but beyond that it's a good solution.
OUR NEW SHORT: $ASTH
We are short Astrana Health, a value-based care company that has grown rapidly through acquisitions and increasingly complex risk-bearing arrangements.
Below is just a summary of some of our opinions about the company; for the full short thesis, including our source work, expert interviews, and important disclaimer regarding our financial interests, please see the GlassHouse Research website.
Our forensic analysis concludes that Astrana’s headline growth dramatically overstates the growth of the underlying combined business. In Q2 2026, reported revenue grew 49% year-over-year, yet revenue declined roughly 1% against the company’s own pro forma combined-company base.
We believe Astrana’s Prospect acquisition created a highly subjective spring-loading reserve setup. In Q2, Astrana recorded approximately $38 million of gross favorable prior-period claims development—more than quarterly pre-tax income. Management says related offsets made the net impact immaterial, but investors are not given the reconciliation needed to independently verify that claim or determine Prospect’s contribution.
Astrana’s earnings depend on a web of estimates and related-party arrangements that we believe deserve far more scrutiny. These include a $545 million insider-linked loan structure, sharply higher expenses with a director-linked hospital system, growing risk-pool receivables, and non-GAAP adjustments that can materially reshape reported profitability.
Management was paid heavily on the same metrics we believe deserve the most scrutiny. In 2025, the CEO received a $2.06 million cash incentive award, with revenue and adjusted EBITDA components paying at 200% of target, even as the company reported a material weakness in internal control over financial reporting related to acquisition accounting.
We leave many of the more interesting findings, charts, expert commentary, and related-party details for readers of the full report.
Read the full thesis on our website listed on our profile. As always, please read our full disclaimer carefully. GlassHouse Research is short $ASTH and/or related derivatives and stands to benefit if the price declines. The reader should assume GlassHouse covers some or all of its position at time of publication.
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Disturbed Florida mom arrested after husband found video of her having sex with family dog: cops trib.al/jzt5HMC
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Another ridiculous but awesome item - a Russian nesting doll featuring Hillary Clinton inside Linda Tripp inside Monica Lewinsky inside Bill Clinton. Also comes with a Yeltsin/Gorbachev/Brezhnev/Stalin/Lenin.
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An auction item just for @HMSReepicheep - an English Prattware pitcher featuring Admiral Lord Horatio Nelson and his Flag Captain on the Victory at Trafalgar - Thomas Hardy.
A pretty common motif for these pitchers, but still a very cool survivor.
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Yet another of my sometime collecting obsessions is shells. There's a new book, out in October from Princeton, that already has me itching for my copy. If you're a sheller, even occasional, this can keep you dreaming through the winter ahead. Link 🔽
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Absolute UNIT auction time!
English folk art pig/CEO painting. BIG in subject and on your wall at two feet by three. And absolutely awesome.
Estimate is $800-$1200. I don't have the wall space, but if you do this rocks. Listing ⬇️
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A prior restraint for everyone!
In my quarter-century as a lawyer, I've never been involved in a case with a more egregious violation of the First Amendment than this New Jersey case. I'm proud @GoldwaterInst is standing up for the rights of parents and the protection of free speech: goldwaterinstitute.org/new-j…
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You've put your finger on one of the major issues. What you're talking about is really just speculation from the SEC's perspective. For a good TCR you need more. That more can include evidence of connection to and payment from the company, evidence of coordinated "other way" trading by the pumpers, and similar items. It really varies and I don't want to limit it but it must be both clear AND original. You want to avoid what I call "Leo Pointing" TCRs, where you're just putting a bunch of public information out there and saying "see!"
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