Economics and history of government in one nice package.
Musk, Milei and Macron – A Café in Paris
Saint-Germain. Three coffees. One chainsaw.
MACRON: Javier, you cannot bring that in here.
MILEI: It is not switched on.
MACRON: That is not the reassurance you think it is.
MUSK: Let him keep it. It’s the only visual aid that ever worked.
MACRON: Very well. So – you both wanted to explain the economy to me. I should say that I worked at Rothschild, I ran the finance ministry, and I have been President for nine years.
MILEI: Yes. That is the problem we are here to discuss.
MUSK: Let’s start simple. Where does money come from?
MACRON: From the economy. Value created, taxed, redistributed.
MUSK: Close. Where does value come from?
MACRON: Labour. Capital. Innovation. The social contract that organizes them.
MUSK: Someone makes a thing that didn’t exist. That’s it. Everything else is moving it around. A country gets rich in exactly one way – more people making more things. And it gets poor in exactly one way: making it harder to make things.
MACRON: That is a caricature. There is regulation, protection, standards, a European framework…
MILEI: In your country, to open a factory, you ask. To hire, you ask. To fire, you ask, and then you pay for three years. To build a reactor, you ask for seventeen years. What happens if nobody answers?
MACRON: The procedure continues.
MILEI: No. The answer is no. Silence is no. You have made no the default setting of an entire civilization.
MACRON: We built Ariane. We built the TGV. We built the nuclear fleet.
MUSK: In the seventies. Under rules that no longer exist. You could not build your own nuclear fleet today – you’d be in year nine of the consultation.
MACRON: (pause) Flamanville took seventeen years.
MUSK: There it is.
MACRON: So what would you do? Abolish the state?
MILEI: No. I am not an anarchist on Tuesdays. The state does four things. Courts. Police. Borders. Contracts. Everything else it touches, it makes worse and more expensive – and it charges you for the privilege in advance.
MACRON: And the social model? The pensions, the healthcare, the…
MUSK: You can only keep the social model if you produce enough to pay for it. You do not. So you are not defending the model. You are defending the speeches about the model, while the young people who would have funded it move to Austin.
MACRON: Two hundred thousand a year.
MUSK: You know the number.
MACRON: Of course I know the number. I know all the numbers. (He stirs his coffee.) You must understand that I am not unsympathetic. I have read Bastiat.
MUSK: Then what didn’t you understand?
MACRON: I am French. Privately, I agree with a great deal of what you say.
MILEI: Then why do you not say it?
MACRON: Because it would not be useful.
MILEI: To whom?
MACRON: (pause) To the process.
MUSK: To you.
MACRON: These are not different things, at this level. That is something people outside government never grasp.
MILEI: Then why?
MACRON: Because the numbers are not the constraint. (He looks up.) The constraint is that every one of those regulations has a constituency, a ministry, and a union. The pension reform cost me the streets for six months. Six months, for two years of retirement age. You are asking me to do forty such reforms simultaneously, in a country that is the world champion of not moving.
MILEI: No. I am asking why you find that constraint so comfortable.
MACRON: I beg your pardon.
MILEI: Every one of those constituencies is also a lever. The ministry that blocks the factory is a ministry you appoint. The subsidy that saves the failing firm is a subsidy you grant. You describe that as an obstacle to your power, while that is the substance of it – that is what you do. A president in a country where everything is permitted has almost nothing left to distribute.
MACRON: That is a very cynical reading.
MILEI: It is the only one that fits the evidence. Everything else requires you to be incompetent, and you are not incompetent.
MACRON: (after a moment) No. I am not.
MUSK: And here’s the part I don’t think you’ve considered. You keep asking how to make France competitive. Wrong question. Ask instead what happens if you do nothing.
MACRON: We decline slowly.
MUSK: No. You decline until the decline itself becomes the constituency – until more people depend on the managing of the problem than on solving it. Then it’s structural. You’re close.
MILEI: Two hundred thousand young French people leave every year.
MACRON: A European mobility question. And they are replaced.
MUSK: Not by engineers.
MACRON: We have programmes.
MILEI: Emmanuel. I inherited two hundred percent inflation and nine defaults. Every economist in Buenos Aires told me it was politically impossible. I killed the rent control. The housing supply in Buenos Aires tripled. Prices fell. Because I stopped forbidding the supply.
MACRON: Argentina is not France.
MILEI: Correct. Argentina was worse. That was the advantage. When the patient is dying, even the doctors stop arguing. Your patient is merely declining, so everyone can keep their position while it happens.
MACRON: You describe decline. I would call it stability.
MUSK: Same thing at a different speed.
MACRON: (lightly) Not to those of us who must be re-elected inside the timeframe.
MILEI: There it is. You gave the whole answer and did not notice.
MACRON: And suppose I did what you ask. Suppose tomorrow I abolish the permission – activity free, punishment after real harm, silence means yes.
MILEI: Six months of war. The street, the press, your own administration. Then the electricity price starts falling, the first permits clear in thirty days, and somebody opens a factory. And then it is no longer an argument. It is a fact, and facts recruit faster than speeches.
MACRON: And during those six months I lose everything I hold.
MILEI: Yes.
MACRON: You make it sound like a technical matter.
MUSK: It is a technical matter. That’s what nobody wants to hear. There’s no mystery here. Cheap energy, fast permits, real consequences for actual harm, and freedom to hire. Every country that does those four things gets rich. Every country that doesn’t, doesn’t. It isn’t culture. It isn’t destiny.
MACRON: It is arithmetic, and I have a Republic that has beheaded people for less.
MILEI: They did not behead the ones who built things. They beheaded the ones who administered a system nobody could afford any more. You may want to check which chair you are sitting in.
MACRON: (signalling for the bill) And what exactly did you two come here to achieve?
MUSK: Nothing. We came to say it out loud, in front of you, so nobody can pretend later that you didn’t know.
MACRON: (reaching for his wallet) Let me. The state can afford three coffees.
MILEI: (stopping him) The state cannot afford three coffees. That is the entire conversation we have just had.