There are two competing hypotheses about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The first hypothesis is that the invasion was unprovoked, as Russia is another "Hitler" pursuing expansionism, and that the logical response of NATO is therefore to stop Russia and raise the costs. From this perspective, even diplomacy can be viewed as "appeasement." The second, competing hypothesis is that Russia responded to 30 years of NATO expansion, which it considers an existential threat, and thus considers itself to be fighting a defensive war. If the second hypothesis is correct, then NATO deepening its direct involvement and rejecting negotiations will only result in the destruction of Ukraine while taking further steps toward nuclear war. George Beebe, the former Director of Russia Analysis at the CIA, argues that the second hypothesis is clearly correct: Russia sees this as a war for its survival and therefore cannot back down. One does not need to agree with the analysis of Beebe, but this should really be at the center of the debate in the West, as our survival depends on it. My great concern is that we are not even permitted to discuss or debate these two competing hypotheses, because the narrative must be protected and all dissent is smeared as repeating Russian propaganda. youtu.be/HrgVTdBvSpI

Oct 5, 2026 · 8:09 AM UTC

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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
There are no “competing hypotheses.” Russia’s invasion and attempted conquest of Ukraine is a fact. Your attempted justification for this monstrous act of mass murder is a fascist lie.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
George Kennan predicted conflict on this very basis in the 90s. All planned, narrative is utter BS You need to be brain-dead to believe 'Unprovoked Full Scale Illegal Invasion of Ukraine' Especially when millions of a Russian speaking Ukrainians disenfranchised by Coup.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Whoever is still standing after World War 3 will get to write the narrative.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Gorbatsjov 02-04-2009: Gorbatschow: "..Kohl, US-Außenminister James Baker und andere sicherten mir zu, dass die Nato sich keinen Zentimeter nach Osten bewegen würde. Daran haben sich die Amerikaner nicht gehalten, und den Deutschen war es gleichgültig.." m.bild.de/politik/2009/bild-…
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
One should take on the premise that the west is fighting for survival of its dominance and expansionism as the freedom of BRICS is offered to the world . So the aggression against Russia is a fight by the rich to keep its riches flowing
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Hypothesis? Come on Glenn.. Putin warned about NATO expansion as far back as 2014. He threaten there would be consequences if Ukraine was considered for NATO. NATO said F' off we'll add whoever we want.. so Putin did what he said he would do, consequences.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Notwithstanding the fact that he makes some valid points, I wouldn't trust this "ex"-CIA person as far as I could throw him. His statements almost exclusively put the blame for continuation of hostilities on the Europeans, while ignoring that this has always been a US proxy war.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Zbigniew Kazimierz Brzeziński had already described the second scenario in his 1997 book, *The Global Chessboard*. It was U.S. strategy to expand NATO and exert military-strategic pressure on Russia. Ukraine played a key role in this due to its strategic location.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Elites go fight your war, send you own children. We white civilians will never fight your wars.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Watching from the woods of Oregon as the Ukraine "situation" developed, it was clear that Beebe is correct. Russia built up troops when NATO pushed hard to bring the country in. McCain gave speaches supporting the idea. Then, of course, the NGOs were pushed into action to take advantage for US business, the bidens jumped in as well, and the riches from many war mngering countries gave Zelensky a big head. Plain and simple. Russia did not start this and has shown self destructive restraint the US never would have. Russia offered an excellent deal to the US to end this, but that was scuttled by Zelensky and EU/Uk interference. The US should bow out of this fight, out of NATO, and cut ties with our "allies" EU, UK, and Israel, come to cooperation agreements with Russia, together deal with Iran, and each rebuild their economies.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Any analysis, especially from anyone claiming expertise, that fails to incorporate Russia's quasi-religious goal of a Greater Russia, a goal that goes back to the 19th Century, is just Russian propaganda. But "Russia is the victim" messaging seems to be this morning's Russian bot farm instructions. x.com/OldTankerPhil/status/2…
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
I don’t see how Russia refusing to let Ukraine join NATO is any different from JFK threatening to invade Cuba to remove Soviet missles.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Who said in 1997 "“lots of luck in your senior year” and then "... they need to look West, and the question is, well, this is designed to completely shut them out".? All this had been in preparation for a long time—not in 2022, not in 2014, not even in 1997.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
The second "hypothesis" is reality, and so is your sense that all who dissent from the first hypothesis must be silenced or vilified.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Kiew was increasing shelling and signalled a military offensive. Donetsk and Luhansk asked Russia for help.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
We are very lucky to have brave, intelligent and articulate people like you in the public arena. Thank you for bothering when it is so punishing, a real service to the public good.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
@bundeskanzler #Merz kam in seiner NATO-Laudatio nicht drum herum die zweite These zu berücksichtige, aber nur um sie als Täter-Opfer Umkehr für jegliche Verhandlungen auszuschließen.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Alternative 2 has been confirmed directly and indirectly by several western politicians and so-called leading figures. But they claim adamantly it is alternative 1. Sickening!
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Both NATO and the EU are the enemies of Russia as well as the EU-countries. However, we are not in control of ourselves. We are trapped
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
The western fixation, by the old warmongers, will not work in the long run. Our young people are well aware of this. They are just waiting for the inevitable death of these people so they can all live in peace.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Putin's bad regime aside, NATO wants Russia. Approach since 1840s is "destroy, dismantle Russia". They did the best job themselves with communism.Russian GDP/c PPP grew over 400% since 1990. They endured what they had to. Ukraine is the end. Wanted to compromise, were told "no".
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
There are not "two competing hypotheses". There's one bogus propaganda narrative and the other is reality. Reality is what you call the second hypothesis.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Hitler tried endlesly to make peace with the west, but was rejected as with Russia now...
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
How can you fight a defensive war on another countries territory ?? Why is NATO an issue since Russia has bordered with NATO countries for decades (Alaska and Norway ).
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The Ukraine was built by Russia then the USSR, and apart from bits stolen from Poland, Romania, Hungary, etc, it is essentially Russian borderlands. It must remain neutral. That it chose not to indicates the second hypothesis is correct and Russia has the right to defend itself.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
While NATO membership is a major concern for Russia, it didnt play a role in the invasion. There was nothing happening in Feb 2022 that would trigger escalating from diplomacy to war over NAT. What triggered the invasion was the escalation by ukraine against donbass.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Even if Russia invaded for expansionist reasons, that doesn’t mean diplomacy can’t work. To the contrary, given the huge costs for Russia of the war and the disappointing results, they’ll probably be open to diplomacy in order to end the fiasco!
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Invites real opponents in talk shows and pay equal attention to different opinions!!!!
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
A truly stupid and ignorant theory that crashs upon the rocky shoals of the question that isn't asked. WHY is NATO expanding? The answer supports the first theory and not the second. The countries that were formerly in the Warsaw Pact or the Soviet Union feel threatened by....
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
A third, more likely option is “Blut und Boden” (Blood and Soil). What Putin is doing is incorporating areas with a majority ethnic Russian population into Russia.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Britain, the U.S., and Europe scoffed at peace with Russia before this war started and they are still doing the same. Their plans before the war started are the same as they are now... A HELLBENT "strategic defeat of Russia" - "for as long as it takes".
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Fake 'academic' posting Russian propaganda deguised as debate. Ignore.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Problem is that the second hypothesis is fundamentally at odds with the right for self-determination. Sure, the west has meddled incessantly/illegally but that can be said of Russia as well. In any way, there always seems to be a great majority leaning towards the West, no?
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Nobody can believe that an invasion of a non NATO country that immediately resulted in 2 additional NATO members (Finland and Sweden) is because of fear of NATO.
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Replying to @Glenn_Diesen
Its really simple. Russia invaded Ukraine and can stop the war immediately, if, they wanted to.
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