The Saudi offensive is only just beginning.
Today, hundreds of drones, dozens of helicopters and a large combat aviation force were used against Houthi positions, which lost ground in open terrain along the coast.
Anyone expecting the Saudis to act as they did in the Yemeni civil war, where they were defeated, is mistaken. This will be an extremely hard war for the Houthis, who will retaliate against the Saudi and Emirati oil industries.
The central question comes down to two points:
1How far are the Saudi and Emirati industries willing to overlook the economic damage? Yes, the bill will reach the Emirates as well before long, since their proxies are already fully engaged and moving into the front lines.
2Inevitably, Iran will have to act more decisively. Once the Saudis and Emiratis are ignoring the damage to their own economies, in a not-so-distant scenario Trump could resume the war and likewise overlook Iranian retaliation against the GCC’s industry.
That is the picture taking shape if the war in Yemen continues to escalate.
A more brutal resumption of Yemen’s civil war will be far more consequential than it was years ago.
There is a bet that Iran, in its current economic situation, has limited capacity to finance the Houthis, and that this is therefore a golden opportunity.
The problem is that the Yemenis still hold an arsenal that will certainly last for months of fighting, even with the massive support of Saudi allies.
This conflict will quickly evolve into one fought mainly with drones and 4x4s on the front, with missiles flying from both sides aimed at the economy and logistics.
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