Thrilled my paper with @namalhotra is out at @apsrjournal! Have you always been captivated by the impacts of trade policy on political behavior, applications of causal machine learning, and shocks to soybean prices? Ok well regardless this is still the paper for you! A thread 🧵

This pic isn't a warning to us. It's a warning to other countries. We will take your smartest, hardest-working citizens and turn them into Americans. We're a machine and you can't stop us. Look upon our soft power and despair.

Impressive @ThadKousser @namalhotra et al. field experiment had few effects on election attitudes of TX conservatives despite exposure to "an average of 20 online videos, 18.5 cable TV videos, 23.9 display ads, 3 text messages & 3 postcards" - high-quality content crafted by pros

Jesus loves you you stupid idiot

BREAKING: Over 10,000 two-way fixed effects analyses recalled due to contamination with heterogeneous treatment effects.

Elizabeth Warren comes out strongly against happy hour

We don't need to buy Immanuel Kant's books, we have Immanuel Kant at home Immanuel Kant at home:

narrowing it down

Really admirable scholarship on display. Sorry about the (somewhat) failed manipulation, but thanks for setting an example for scientific honesty / transparency. (And maybe the failure itself is substantive re how tightly bound people view income / status / working conditions!)

New paper w/ @hannohilbig : we examine how local exposure to the Great Recession affected politics over the long run. Counties where unemployment rose more in 2007–09 moved toward Democrats, not the populist right. The shift remained visible in 2022.

Why is it always communist coffee shops. Has anyone tried a communist regional beverage distributor? What about a communist B2B software startup

I find political scientists' lack of attention to effect sizes/substantive significance deeply troubling.

using the term as it was devised (a luxury belief being a thing wealthy people say to signal status while not being something they actually do and has big cost to poorer people), a left-wing luxury belief might be something like "abolish prisons" and a right-luxury belief might be something like "teen pregnancy is good" or "don't go to college"

me, begging, crying, on my knees: "Please just use plain english, I don't understand what you're saying." Claude: "The right fix, and the book's lesson applies: the tutorial rotted as a front door because a front door full of claims always rots. So the new root holds only what's timeless — the thesis and three doors — and every claim lives behind it in the thing that goes red when stale."

To be rich without a 4 year college degree usually involves being a small business owner. In this article, we do one of the most in-depth surveys of the political preferences of small business owner and why they lean right: cambridge.org/core/journals/…

Crazy number of people on my timeline acting as if they’ve ever heard of the Jacobian conjecture before

The first paper from my dissertation is now out in Political Science Research and Methods. A short thread 👇

Anyone else who studies climate change getting their Claude Fable 5 conversations flagged as a security risk? I don't see what's so dangerous about soil moisture and heat trends, unless they suspect I'm some kind of cartoon movie villain who is trying to blot out the sun.

Many people think business influence pushes policy to the right, in favor of smaller government. But when it comes to *local* governments, businesses and business associations often support well-funded, competent government. My new @PoPpublicsphere article explains why.

Pretty good.

What explains the dramatic rise and fall of corporate commitments to DEI? In a new paper, co-authored with @Nolan_Mc, we analyze the text of 1,694,664 securities disclosures for 15,105 publicly traded companies to understand the political forces behind these developments.