A gift from the market 🎁 $APP

Edgewater says AppLovin $APP is entering a “show-me” phase as growth normalizes. The firm says MAX is nearing a functional ceiling, market share growth is less consistent, and “competition is impacting APP’s net spreads at the margin.” 4Q26/2027 estimates are moving lower.

$APP AXON Pixel installs up 3.27% WoW 12,020 → 12,467 HUGE increase from last week

🚨 Lead Gen Advertisers: We want to hear from you. We’re exploring how we can make AppLovin a much bigger channel for lead generation, and our engineering team wants your input. If you run paid lead gen, we want to understand what you optimize for, your goals, and what you’d need from AppLovin to scale. The more demand we see, the more we can prioritize building for lead gen. Survey below 👇

Citi and BTIG both out this morning with positive notes on $APP Another reminder that $APP is trading below 16x NTM EPS... and I believe they're going to grow revenues by at least 10-12% QoQ in Q3 and Q4 which means there's a chance $APP gets to $8.3B revenues this year versus sell side currently at $8.1B ... fwiw, $8.3B revenues would be up +51.5% YoY for the full year... which means ebitda for the full year would be around $6.95B which is up +54% YoY and means the stock is trading today at 15.5x CY2026 ebitda and less than 12x CY2027 ebitda which is way too cheap if $APP grows ebitda next year by at least 30% which I believe is very possible. Based on my full year estimates, this year $APP will average 11% QoQ revenue growth... I think that slows down to 7-8% QoQ in CY2027 which gets them to 30-35% growth next year... which is a step down from growth this year but also means the stock is undervalued at 14x CY2027 EPS. There could be upside to my numbers depending on what ecommerce adds. NFA. DYOR.