Prediction Markets Researcher & Analyst @Polymarket Bull DMs open

Alpha Caller
AT LAUNCH, IT'S OFTEN THE BUNDLE THAT DUMPS ON YOU @Moshdottrade puts it in AI agent vaults instead >backers fund the opening buy >agents buy and sell that supply under hourly limits >no one can withdraw it, per their docs >backers earn trading fees instead of tokens why it can own the niche: insiders can't pull the bundle out. and every launch runs on Pons, where the traders already are (93% of Robinhood Chain launchpad fees, last 30d) $BUN, Mosh's own token: > 8 ETH bundle, funded by the team > it's paid the team 62 ETH in fees over 25 days > 71% of supply is still in the vaults > holders get no fees. a buyback fund is planned it's still early. over 90% of what Mosh's agents manage is $BUN, and one token doesn't prove it fixes launches the launch i'm watching: robinhood:0xb0788f5f65a9f4c0d8a634c45c391234f46221ab ( @aurumonmosh ) >its main pair is tokenized GLD, the gold ETF, not ETH >28% of supply sits in the vaults >funder @ripchillpill pledged his full 1% fee share to the agents >36+ GLD ($14k) earned so far, none sent to the agents yet. that feature isn't live if it goes live, 1% of pool volume becomes GLD the agents can buy with. if it doesn't, that 1% stays with the funder what fixes launch dumps: rules in the contract, or traders who stop buying celeb coins?
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Replying to @Lexur @solana
i'm still a newbie but not for long
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AI writes the market. Who closes it? @prophetmarketai , @xomarket and @Trueo_ all say resolution is a weak spot in prediction markets hard to argue with that the pitch is the long tail: local football, one protocol's metrics, two people arguing on X no team can write and settle millions of markets by hand. so all three use AI to help create them they differ on who settles them >Prophet: several AI models vote on how a market resolves. the votes and the reasoning are public >XO: says its AI engine MODRA drafts the rules and settles markets, and that anyone can propose or dispute an outcome >Trueo: AI drafts the rules, humans settle, with up to 3 rounds of appeal. it expects AI agents to handle routine cases later volume is still small. last 30 days, per DefiLlama: >Prophet: $2.2k (position limits are small) >Trueo: $9.5k >XO: $15.5M >Polymarket, for scale: $4.4B before you trade any market, read the rules. doesn't matter if an AI or a human wrote them it's an early-stage narrative letting anyone create a market sounds convincing, but the long tail hasn't shown much demand yet what would it take for the viewers to show up?
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this Polymarket trader is up almost $3,000 calling the weather except he isn't calling anything. he copies 288 trades in a row. same market, same second, a bit under half the size. two days of trading, not one exception the wallet he copies only trades weather: 4,180 positions, all of them temperature markets, +$31.8k and the copying works. 53.6% of Emberthespirit's trades win, 54.6% of that wallet's copy the trader, or the one copying the trader? (link below to copytrade him at backtested settings)
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everyone is waiting for a legendary $POLY airdrop that's how you end up with all this confusion, speculation and fake posts let's sort out what's real > the "confirmed for 2026" posts going around today are quoting @AskPolymarket, Polymarket's AI reply bot. the clearest statement is still the one from their CMO in October 2025 btw, that reply has already been deleted > the Bybit perp that launched today, it's a pre-IPO contract on Polymarket's valuation. if the IPO gets canceled, Bybit can delist it or settle it at a price it picks so i ran a thought experiment. does Polymarket even need a token? > resolution: sooner or later they need to drop UMA and token-holder voting. it's not cool when big holders decide who's right. short-term crypto up/down markets already settle through Chainlink, no vote. in a May study on 1,189 questions from a regulated U.S. exchange, AI got 83% right overall and 98% on the 47% where all the models agreed and were sure. letting POLY holders vote brings the whale problem right back > chain: why build their own L1-2? nine months after -announcing it, trades still settle on Polygon, where their liquidity already is. and a chain doesn't need a token to earn fees > regulation: a token always means regulatory risk, and CLARITY brings zero clarity. it failed a key Senate vote on September 15, so there's still no law on which tokens are securities my take: the business doesn't need POLY what do you think? does Polymarket need a token, and what for?
Polymarket is worth $15.5B or $30B depends which ticker you ask two prices. neither one comes from Polymarket >pPOLY (Paimon): $15.50 x 1B supply. $4.8M sale. no equity, no IPO rights >POLYMARKET/USD1: perp on Aster and Binance Wallet. "$30B". $245K open interest the $POLY airdrop math already started a token with no announced date or supply, valued off a perp with $245K in it i'm staying out. watching from the sidelines pPOLY opens Sep 24. what's your plan?
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add up the MLS Golden Boot board on Polymarket and you get 91% buy every name, one of them wins, you pocket 9¢ that's the math on paper it doesn't work >91% is the mid. you pay the ask, and at the ask every name together costs 98.9¢ >add taker fees and you're at about $1.00. the 9¢ is basically gone >size up and it gets worse. 100 of each name: $109.31 in, $100 back at best >and the list isn't complete. at least six players with 13+ goals aren't on it, including Nicolas Fernandez with 15 if anyone off the list wins, everything you bought goes to zero. check who's missing before you buy every name ever bought every name and watched someone off the list win?
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Replying to @vijn_crypto

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Replying to @0xTengen_

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Polymarket is worth $15.5B or $30B depends which ticker you ask two prices. neither one comes from Polymarket >pPOLY (Paimon): $15.50 x 1B supply. $4.8M sale. no equity, no IPO rights >POLYMARKET/USD1: perp on Aster and Binance Wallet. "$30B". $245K open interest the $POLY airdrop math already started a token with no announced date or supply, valued off a perp with $245K in it i'm staying out. watching from the sidelines pPOLY opens Sep 24. what's your plan?
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Replying to @zaddrnet
my bro! lowkey looks like me lol
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Replying to @zaddrnet
guys i think you need to give a clear guide cuz people are clueless here. transaction was sent like 25 mins ago but still no idea what to do. i click on "i have sent it. follow it here" and literally nothing happens for over 20 mins now.
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Replying to @zaddrnet
i sent it but then everything froze
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three zcash:native mints in one day and i'm on all three lists 😎 your schedule, UTC: >12:00 @ZeckersNFT ➡︎ 0.0026 ZEC ➡︎ first 50 mints free >13:00 @zaddrnet WL ➡︎ 0.02 ZEC ➡︎ 1 per wallet >17:00 @zecfrogs ➡︎ free ➡︎ 6,969 supply >19:00 @zaddrnet public ➡︎ 3 per wallet ➡︎ 2,800 total check only official sources before you mint. nobody real DMs you a mint link today. stay safe which of the three do you think runs the hardest after mint?
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Replying to @zaddrnet
very cool visuals for sure by the way, your future loyal hodler is still pending. hope i get noticed :)
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Last one printed hard but all btts 6-leg in mls is actually insane one blank and the whole thing dies gl

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let's turn $40 into $335 locked in an 8.40x EPL 4-leg on @FundingPredicts: >Newcastle vs Hull: BTTS >Brighton vs Arsenal: Arsenal to win >Nottingham Forest vs Coventry: Forest to win >Everton vs Ipswich: BTTS be honest: which leg sells this?
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Replying to @zaddrnet
facts! i hope you notice me 😎
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Replying to @randgroup

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THE BITCOIN MOON THESIS HAS A PRICE AND IT IS 24¢ Polymarket: "What price will bitcoin:native hit in 2026?" spot is $80,748. 104 days left ↑ $90k - 58% ↑ $100k - 24% ↓$70k dip first - 48% the bull case going around: >august ran from $62,275 to $81,479, +31% low to high >the CLARITY Act failed its Senate cloture vote 49-50 on Sep 15. BTC was already sliding before the vote, printed $74,968 in that hour, and had it all back in three days >the Fed hiked on Sep 16, first time since July 2023. spot sits 7.4% above that day's low >alts are outrunning it. 30d: SOL +38%, XRP +35%, ETH +32% vs BTC +23% >the timeline is still full of reasons this should break, and that is usually what bull markets climb >the midterms land Nov 3, inside this market's window so what would you pay for a shot at +24% in 104 days?
BREAKING: Bitcoin surges above $80,000.
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Replying to @zaddrnet
I'm ready, just need your confirmation
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Replying to @0xTimQ @zaddrnet

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Replying to @zaddrnet @Zcash
excited to be on board @zaddrnet Already applied. Ticket ZA-X3ILGY
Zcash feels different this cycle Privacy isn't just a feature anymore. It’s actually useful for NFTs @zaddrnet is one of the first projects doing this right You see the faces, not the owners Already applied. Ticket ZA-X3ILGY zcash:native
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Zcash feels different this cycle Privacy isn't just a feature anymore. It’s actually useful for NFTs @zaddrnet is one of the first projects doing this right You see the faces, not the owners Already applied. Ticket ZA-X3ILGY zcash:native
Nice to not meet you. 2,800 faces on @Zcash . Every face is public. Every owner isn't. Whitelist is open. Apply early. zaddr.net/apply
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copytrading on Polymarket pays when you do the work first Ana made $4K last week. the next wallet she's sharing checks out pulled it up on @graviahq myself: >+$121k PnL. $2.48M volume >avg entry 60-70¢. 537 positions. +$61.7K >Gaming / Esports. 819 of 3,103 positions. +$65.34K >max drawdown -$36.8K. Sharpe 1.55 good numbers are a starting point. base your size on the -$36.8K, not the +$121K, and start small enough that a red month is boring copy this wallet at 0% fees: gravia.trade/copy-trading?ca… what's the first number you check before copying a wallet?
made $4k copytrading last week, still the most underrated thing on Polymarket! here's the next wallet that has my attention: > 122k pnl, consistently profitable > 66k profits on esports market > 60-70c range has the highest profit - $61k (my settings and link below)
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IF WARSH SAYS "NO CHANGE" TODAY, THIS TRADER LOSES $3.5M he holds 5,509,855 Yes shares on the September hike on Polymarket >hike: he collects $5.5M. profit $2M >no change: the whole $3.5M is gone he has 21 Fed positions open, $7.4M in total, trading on hikes and against cuts profile: polymarket.com/@thereturnofd… who is still taking the other side today?
The White House demanded rate cuts. The hike is at 87.5¢ Fed decides today, 2pm ET. 25bp hike 87.5¢, no change 11.5¢ on Polymarket Sep 4, Trump on Truth Social: "lower the interest rates because the U.S.A. is a much stronger credit than it was just a short time ago!" neither that post nor Vance the day before moved the price. the repricing was data Warsh has held rates twice since taking over in May. in July the vote was 9-3, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan all wanting a hike. that was before either hot print > the second hike is priced in December - October hike 35.5¢ - December hike 58.5¢ Polymarket puts 50bp of hikes for the whole year at 44.5%. the month markets put the second 25 in December October meets six days before the midterms. December brings new projections, October does not. the calendar explains that spread better than the data does Warsh put PCE at 3.7% over twelve months and 4.1% over six at Jackson Hole. the short window is running hotter, and a second hike is already in the price > the dots will not settle it at 2pm they give one median for the whole year. they cannot name a meeting. Warsh did not submit one in June: "it's not helpful in the conduct of policy" the open question is whether the second hike lands six days before an election or a month after it Data or Calendar. Which one is October pricing?
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Replying to @arespro @Polymarket

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my setup: >whitelist: Sports only (Basketball, Tennis, Soccer) >size: $5 fixed >routing: Priority fill >bounds: 25¢-85¢, 3¢ max slip >exits: mirror sells, per position >caps: $5/trade, $15/market, auto-redeem ON leaderboard needs $500 volume across at least 5 active days ($25/day) this trader is sitting on 420 open positions with a $387 average ticket. $5 size clears the $25 daily bar in 5 fills and keeps the stack intact when he loads a big slate
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my entire plan for the $5,000 Ares Arena is copying this trader >93.1% win rate across 1,551 sports trades >97.2% tennis, 92.3% basketball, 90%+ across 300+ soccer matches >+$9.69k net PnL his wallet on @arespro app: ares.pro/wallets/0x8a471f858… setup and volume plan below 👇
$5,000. 3 weeks. 3 ways to win. Introducing Ares Arena Season 1. The @Polymarket trading competition. Compete in PnL, volume and referrals. Manual trades + copy trades count. Sep 15–Oct 6. Enter the Arena ↓
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my setup: >whitelist: TENNIS only >size: $2 fixed >routing: Priority fill >bounds: 20¢-85¢, 3¢ max slip >exits: mirror sells, per position >caps: $2/trade, $6/market, auto-redeem ON copy here: ares.pro/wallets/0x6170dc7e7… he averages $583 per ticket and is sitting on 114 open positions. Keep sizing at $2 or you'll run out of ammo before the slate even ends
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Probably the cleanest copy target in sports markets right now > 6-month history, 435 tennis trades logged > 83.9% win rate (+$19.2k PnL) > 79% taker share, absorbs $2,500 clips within 3¢ his profile on @arespro app: ares.pro/wallets/0x6170dc7e7… setup for a $100 roll below 👇
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looks not too bad for today's combo! there's every chance of winning. fingers crossed

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Replying to @AleiahLock
lfg!

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HE'S BACK POLYMARKET TRADER JUST PUT $972k ON BRIGHTON TO BEAT COVENTRY if Brighton wins, it pays $1.857M yesterday he put $305k on Liverpool vs Fulham. Fulham held them to a 0-0 draw Coventry have been awful. 3 Premier League games, no wins, no goals does he bounce back?
THIS ACCOUNT IS 4 DAYS OLD AND ALREADY UP $1.9M - 3 predictions - 3 wins - all on soccer favorites Sevilla YES ➡︎ +$899k Dortmund YES ➡︎ +$673k Arsenal YES ➡︎ +$305k now he put $305k on Liverpool to beat Fulham today on Polymarket if Liverpool wins, it pays $469k check his profile: polymarket.com/@00gringo00?v…
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Liverpool vs Fulham ended in a 0-0 unfortunately the trader's winning streak is over
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THIS ACCOUNT IS 4 DAYS OLD AND ALREADY UP $1.9M - 3 predictions - 3 wins - all on soccer favorites Sevilla YES ➡︎ +$899k Dortmund YES ➡︎ +$673k Arsenal YES ➡︎ +$305k now he put $305k on Liverpool to beat Fulham today on Polymarket if Liverpool wins, it pays $469k check his profile: polymarket.com/@00gringo00?v…
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Replying to @Atenov_D
technologies

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This Polymarket trader is about to print a seven-figure payout if the Fed hikes on September 16 $7.5M in positions. Most of it is Fed Main position: Yes on a 25 bps hike after the September meeting If they hike, that position alone pays $2.92M He didn't sit in one market. Same idea everywhere there was size: >Yes on the September hike >No on a hold >Yes on a hike by the September meeting >No on cuts in Sep, Oct and Dec >Yes on zero cuts in 2026 He also has $3.07M on No 25 bps cut, bought at 98.2¢ 3 hike positions: >$1.47M in >$3.29M out if they hike >$640k left at resolution 5 days to the decision. None of this is locked in yet
AAA diesel is above $6 for the first time WTI broke $100 and pulled back to $99 A 25 bps hike is now at 82%, pause at 18% Before Jackson Hole, a hike on Polymarket was around 28% >After Warsh's speech: 50% >After September 10 PPI: 60%+ >After today's CPI: 82% CPI didn't start this move Headline +0.4% / +3.4% was in line. Gasoline +3.9% accounted for over a third of the monthly rise. Core +0.3% / +2.4% beat the 0.2% forecast, and shelter reaccelerated to +0.3%. That did the rest of the work Is 82% just the market catching up to the week, or is next week already decided? A hold is still possible. It would be a choice, not the base case
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Oil ripped this week WTI is off about 5% from today's high - but still up on the week Waiting for the usual pattern: "peace deal tomorrow" or "Hormuz opens today"? Or does the headline not dump it this time? On Polymarket Perps, WTIOIL went above $106 and is now around $96.7 poly.market/wti_oil Does WTI tag $105 this week?
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ofc

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