Great to welcome @jakepaul to the Treasury Department today. Jake’s path from content creator to entrepreneur and professional boxer is a distinctly American story. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

Upon some deep reflection this week, I’m starting to feel a great sense of unease that I have never felt so underallocated to Bitcoin in my entire life

Not long ago, it was smart to realize that cutting rates on short end made the long end rise. Well now, raising rates will also make the long end rise as it will increase deficit. Only way to decrease deficit it to cut the short end low and stop issuing at the long end.

We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so. Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training. You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…

At 1.15x mNAV, 1.28x amplification, and 0% net leverage, I think $MSTR is becoming a very interesting relative value setup. The market lost confidence when Strategy depleted its cash reserve to retire the converts just as $BTC retraced toward the spring lows. $STRC subsequently traded into the low $70s. Over the following months, Strategy issued a significant amount of common and sold some BTC to rebuild the USD reserve/pay dividends. That process now looks largely complete. The reserve has been rebuilt, net leverage is at 0%, and the STRC buybacks showed preferred holders that management is willing to step up and support the credit. My view is that the balance sheet has improved faster than the valuation. With the USD reserve rebuilt (bigger than ever) and net leverage at zero, the need to use the common ATM as aggressively has receded. That removes a meaningful source of downward pressure on mNAV. The next piece is STRC. If BTC moves higher here, asset coverage improves further, and I think STRC goes to $100 as the market recognizes the real strength of the balance sheet (credit quality) and has renewed faith in management to keep cash reserves as a vol buffer. At par, preferred issuance becomes viable again. Strategy can then use preferred capital to meet dollar obligations and buy additional BTC, allowing amplification to increase again, which then justifies a higher mNAV. So the setup is potentially less common issuance at the same time that the preferred funding channel reopens and amplification begins moving higher. I think the recent expansion in MSTR/IBIT may be the market beginning to look around that corner. Just my view. NFA.

Tesla has introduced a new form that you can fill out if you are interested in purchasing a fleet of Cybercabs: Form: tesla.com/robotaxi/interest