The truth about the Palestinian “Nakba,” by the numbers:
The popular picture of the Nakba is hundreds of thousands of innocent people driven far from their homeland, never to return. The actual 1948 numbers tell a more complicated story for both Palestinians and Jews.
On the eve of the war, Mandatory Palestine had roughly 1.2–1.3 million Arabs and 600,000–650,000 Jews.
After the fighting:
• Approximately 150,000–160,000 Palestinians remained inside the 1949 armistice lines of the new State of Israel and later received Israeli citizenship (or residency that converted to citizenship).
• Roughly 400,000–460,000 Arabs already living in the West Bank and about 80,000 already living in the Gaza Strip remained in their original homes. These areas lay outside the Israeli armistice lines and came under Jordanian and Egyptian control.
• Roughly 270,000–280,000 who left what became Israel went to the West Bank.
• Roughly 160,000–200,000 who left what became Israel went to the Gaza Strip.
Most of those who left what became Israel therefore stayed inside historic Palestine. The farthest plausible relocation from a depopulated village in what became Israel to Gaza or the West Bank was only 120–140 miles.
Those who left historic Palestine entirely (beyond Israel + West Bank + Gaza) numbered on the order of 250,000–300,000. Principal destinations were Lebanon (~100,000), Syria (~75,000–90,000), and Transjordan/East Bank (~70,000–100,000), plus smaller numbers in Egypt and Iraq. This is a local relocation - still within the surrounding Levant area, many of which, their ancestors came from.
Jews were displaced too. Historians estimate 60,000–70,000 Jews became internally displaced within the territory that became Israel during the 1948 war (Jewish Quarter of Jerusalem’s Old City, Gush Etzion, and other isolated communities).
A much larger Jewish displacement followed. Rising hostility, riots, asset seizures, and official policies after the war led 800,000–850,000 Jews to leave or be expelled from Iraq, Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Syria, and elsewhere. The majority went to Israel, where they were granted citizenship and absorbed.
Two refugee populations emerged from the same war. One remained registered as refugees for generations. The other was absorbed by the new state that received them. The distances, destinations, and outcomes were not the same as the simplified picture often presented. And the distorted narrative does more harm towards the cause of peace than good.