Kevin Hassett questions why the Fed is raising rates, says it is due to an “unusually partisan Fed” and says the “market is worried, too,” about a Fed that is going to be “hiking unwisely”: “When I'm thinking about what future inflation is, then I look at the last three months of core.... When you annualize it, you know what the number is? 2%.... Right now I think that markets believe in future Fed credibility, but I think the argument that I would make if I were a governor is that if core is 2%, then why are we hiking?” “The other thing about the Fed, and you know how long I've been close friends with Kevin Warsh…, he's managing an unusually partisan Fed. That is a hard thing to do, but it can start with [Michael] Barr and Jay [Powell] not resigning. If you go back to 1913, when chairmen, when their term is up, they leave. The same has been true for vice chairs… So why are they sticking around if not to worry about what the future Fed is going to do?” “Geez, it seems like right now the data are saying we are heading in this forward direction and the Fed goes in the other direction, I'm worried about why they did that. I think the market is worried too because if you look today, then a lot of the people who weren't appointed by President Trump are giving speeches over the last couple of days saying we need a lot more hikes. And if they are going to be in control for two or three years, so if the short-term rate goes to 6% because they are hiking unwisely and then they keep it there for two or three years, the two-year rate, because of arbitrage conditions, it's going to be that. And so I think there is still some work to do to restore Fed independence. And I know that that is something that is high on the priority list for Kevin.” Source: Financial Markets Quality Conference at Georgetown's Psaros Center on 9/23: c-span.org/program/public-af…

the reason the administration is not doing anything about bond yields, in my opinion, is because the stock market is up. when did trump pivot policy in the past? - 2025, SPY down 30% (lol), trump pivots on reciprocal tariffs - 2026, SPY down 9.7%, trump gets a ceasefire with Iran the market is barely off from ATHs. if people were feeling it in their 401ks, like really feeling the pain, the admin would be doing something about it. that's what they use to judge themselves. bond yields keep going up and the market continuing to give trump the benefit of the doubt means he and besssent probably think they have more time and don't have to take action as quickly. if stocks were to really, really dump...then historical evidence shows us that Trump would pivot. if they don't, then the resiliency of the market will continue to fight the Fed and give Trump time to eventually end the war.

A história o justificará

didn't take long

The 10Y Note yield is now up nearly +30 basis points in 2 days. Prior to the last 48 hours, the last time we saw a move of this magnitude was during “Liberation Day” in April 2025. Prior to that, we had not seen a move like this since 2022. What the bond market is doing right now is remarkable.

He was up working before sunrise in DC. Got on the plane to New York at 6am. Addressed the world at the U.N. Singed America’s deal with Greenland. Negotiated for 3 hours with the Iranians. Hosted 10 Gulf countries for a peace summit. Met with Zelenskyy to end Ukraine war. Met with Venesuela’s President to ink largest oil and minerals deal in world history. Hosted Shield of the Americas meeting with 20 other nations. Dinner at the U.N. with 17 separate pull aside meetings. Fly back to DC at 1AM. Back at work today before sunrise. All this man does is work for America. I don’t care what the media or polls say — I’m proud Trump is my President 🇺🇸

US and Iran are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, per Reuters

END THE WAR

So many things making people hesitant to buy or fully deploy: war, hikes, 4 year cyclical bottom, weakening sp500 momentum, Ukraine war, etc etc All future buy catalysts once resolved

INTEL: KYC should collect less personal data and use zero-knowledge proofs to verify compliance without revealing names, income or addresses, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce says

*US AND IRAN DISCUSS DEAL TO REOPEN HORMUZ AND END US BLOCKADE: REUTERS Good enough… Send it.🚀

Everything choice comes with risk. It's also risky to not do anything at all. Better to act independent of any perceived calculated risks.

During the Spanish Civil War, Communists killed nuns then dug up their bodies and put them on public display for mockery, chopped off the hands of priests and murdered thousands priests, nuns and monks. They also burned down hundreds of churches.

If Bolsonaro wins the election, the Brazilian Real should quickly go to $/BRL 4.80. It was in the first half of 2022 that $/BRL almost went to my long-standing fair value of 4.50. That faded in H2 2022 as the odds of a Lula victory became insurmountable... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…

RT @Geiger_Capital: Crazy to think about how Trump could’ve had one of the most successful and popular presidential terms in modern America…

*TRUMP: THE BOND MARKET CALLED AND WANTS TO MAKE A DEAL

BREAKING: US M2 money supply jumped +$124.9 billion in August, to a record $23.34 trillion. This marks the 28th consecutive monthly increase, totaling +$2.61 trillion. YoY, M2 grew +5.7%, its largest YoY increase since June 2022. This marks a sharp acceleration from +2.0% YoY growth seen in August 2024. Meanwhile, since the 2020 pandemic, M2 money supply has surged +$7.85 trillion, equivalent to +$1.21 trillion on average per year, or +6.5% annualized growth. US money creation is picking up speed.

yeah so basically trump got cocky after succeeding with venezuela and had a hot hand and decided to double down and strike iran in february thinking they could take over the country in a couple of weeks despite everyone telling him it was a bad idea and would drag on nothing really happened and then Iran learned that they can actually close the strait of hormuz and were unsure if it would even work but now its become obvious they can do it and feel empowered. the iranians have a longer history as a culture and are slow walking trump as much as possible as they know that higher oil prices are going to ruin his odds in the midterms and weaken him not only that but now higher energy prices are putting upward pressure on inflation and bond yields which has made the job of his new fed chair warsh who came in under a premise of potential rate cute but because of the iran war were entering a rate hiking cycle the only person in the room who was trying to juggle all of this was scott bessent but after trying to juggle everything for so long he decided he was going to try and fight the bond vigilantes to lower bond yields and declared himself as the house. but he showed up to the bond fight with hardly any ammunition and now the bond market is calling his bluff and now the bond auctions are going terrible and he looks like a fool now so now bond yields are surging export bans on diesel are being put in place as an act of desparation midterms are a total write off and the trump admin is about to spend the next two years probably fighting impeachment hearings while things continue to detoriorate and the funny thing about all of this is he won the presidency off the idea of no more foreign wars but its his own foreign war with iran that started this whole mess and now the free market is testing them all

The economy is absolutely ripping