Lots of questions on the restatement of the Chinese lithium inventory series by SMM. This chart shows the growth that SMM's been tracking in lithium output from slag sources - it's gone from nothing in 2024 to c.4Kt/mth over the past few months, that's c.3.5% of Chinese lithium unit production. As you can see from the chart, new sources come from practically nowhere and become really significant (ie lepidolite, recycling), so as an analyst I'm pretty happy that SMM are tracking this rather than finding a hole in my S/D numbers that I don't understand...

Just wanted to make the point that lithium carbonate inventories in China have now been declining for the past 20 consecutive weeks - whichever series you look at...

The accelerated decline in #lithium prices early in the week was a continuation and intensification of the previous week's "weak expectations" logic, and Friday's renewed pullback indicates bearish sentiment has not fundamentally reversed. Full story: 👉mysteel.net/analysis/5142144…

#Albemarle validates its #DLE tech reaching a recovery rate of 94%. chilepaisminero.com/albemarl… #Lithium

Look what happened to the Big Four Lithium companies, following the small increase in #lithium carbonate spot prices and the hike in futures prices. 1. At the closing of the stock market today, their shares increased. 2. But they reacted somewhat differently. $SQM started in red territory but quickly turned green. $ALB showed a clear green path, throughout the day. #Ganfeng and #Tianqi followed a similar trend as SQM. Note, however, that the last two's increase was also significantly lower. 3. SQM's behavior is a puzzle. Tianqi and Ganfeng's reaction can be explained by a cautionary behavior by investors at the beginning of the trading day considering that futures had been falling consecutively for the last 11 days. 4. What happened to spot prices is even more intriguing. Given the recent negative trend, no one was expecting a spot price rebound today. Here the timing of the events is key to understand what is going on. Although spot prices usually react to futures prices after one-day lag, I have observed that from time to time the reaction can be instantaneous. This occurs at the end of trading in spot and the beginnning of it in futures.

China has exported 3.1M EVs (BEV+PHEV) through August 2026 — already surpassing the 2.2M exported in all of 2025. At the current run-rate (~500k/month), full-year 2026 exports could hit ~5M units — more than 2x last year. Slowing domestic EV sales growth in China is pushing OEMs to push harder overseas.

Lithium carbonate futures in China fell more than 14% over three days after SMM changed how it estimates inventories. SMM's revised data put stockpiles at 175,000 tons, against 78,800 tons previously. The new method draws on a larger sample of manufacturers and showed stockpiling at downstream cathode-material plants, while upstream smelters and battery plants were destocking. The revision has left traders and analysts questioning the reliability of lithium inventory data, Bloomberg reported.

Shocking numbers, not widely publicized. China car sales fell 24% in August. It's the 11th straight month of decline in world's largest market. China Car Market Sales YTD 2026 by Select Makers Tesla down 12% Toyota down 18% VW down 26% Mercedes down 29% BYD down 33% Honda down 37% Chevy (discontinued China sales in August 2026, after selling only 36 vehicles all year). In a market of 25 million units, a 24% decline represents a collapse of almost 6 million cars on an annual basis. That's the size of the entire Japan car market. Sources: Marklines, Reuters, CPCA, Company reports. marklines.com/en/news/350561

This is no mystery. Even 中国 major @GanfengOfficial confirmed the very questionable nature of China data in a recent interview. “Demanding an investigation” is a comical phrase in this context. SMM is “Shanghai Messaging Management.” They do the bidding of Team China. @business should stop parroting @CnMetals & do some real reporting rather than normally quoting SMM as gospel. Confounding indeed.

It seems the Sigma #Lithium case is not the only problem on the horizon in South America. lnkd.in/p/dx9zQ8HJ

.@benchmarkmin's 2027 lithium balance has moved from surplus to deficit. The key change is not a vanished supply response. It is stronger demand. @RhoMoIola and @DrCamPerksBMI explain what moved - and what could still break the forecast. YT → piped.video/6F-1-ir_sUk

Brazilian court suspends licenses for Sigma Lithium mine miningweekly.com/article/bra… For months, market participants have anticipated the resumption of production at CATL’s Jianxiawo lithium mine, driving temporary downward pressure on futures prices. Despite recent confirmation that the mine's environmental permit was revoked, price forecasts from certain Price Reporting Agencies (PRAs) continue to rely on outdated resumption assumptions. Meanwhile, real supply disruptions are emerging elsewhere. The recent suspension of #Sigma #Lithium’s mining licenses in Brazil directly impacts global hard-rock feed, cutting off an annual production of 270,000 tonnes of lithium oxide concentrate—equivalent to roughly 38,000 to 40,000 tonnes of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE). Given China's reliance on imported spodumene for conversion, this tangible loss in physical supply should exert immediate upward pressure on Chinese spot and futures prices, helping re-anchor market fundamentals.

Is it time to stop using GFEX as a guide for lithium? I put a comment on X on Friday about how GFEX lithium is trading and suggested that I don’t think the price is being manipulated. I got a lot of push back on that! I’d just like to explain why I think that China isn’t very positive on lithium, even though many lithium specialists ex-China (including me) are. First thing to bear in mind is that this has been a bad year for Chinese domestic battery demand. Chinese EV sales are down 17% y/y YTD July and, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, Chinese ESS installations are down 7% y/y YTD. While, last year, China dominated global EV sales, being 64% of global sales, so far this year it’s only 50%. And while, last year, it was about 60% of global ESS installations, this year it’s only about 47%. So China has been less important for battery demand this year, but most Chinese commentators are very domestically focused and perhaps don’t fully understand how fast world ex-China is growing and how much more relevant it is becoming. Some of that is down to lack of internet access, which means they literally can’t access foreign viewpoints. On top of that, most Chinese analysts I know are forecasting between 120Kt and 180Kt of new LCE supply in China next year. Mostly from DLE, lepidolite and recycling. So, from the Chinese point of view, we have a substantial growth in lithium supply into a shrinking demand environment. It’s easy to see why they might be bearish on the outlook for the industry, even as inventories are falling – looking into 2027 they don’t see growth. But – if we look outside China, we see concerns about Zimbabwe spodumene exports, a reasonable amount of lithium supply coming on elsewhere and very strong demand ex-China in EVs and ESS. Ex-China EV sales up 37% y/y YTD and ESS installs up 65% y/y YTD. That’s why a lot of ex-China analysts are excited. But most China analysts don’t really see that. And GFEX is primarily a domestic exchange. So maybe the weakness in GFEX is understandable from a Chinese perspective. But maybe – this time – the traders on GFEX are just wrong? It wouldn’t be the first time. Or maybe ex-China lithium analysts (including me) are just wrong? That also wouldn’t be the first time! But I know the fundamentals I’m seeing, and I think that they’re positive. So that’s why I’m still constructive on lithium prices.