Professional data analyst bringing mathematical thinking to all things Seattle Seahawks and the NFL. seahawknerd.substack.com
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New article: A 3,000-word love letter to the 2025 Super Bowl Champions, and the case for a budding NFL dynasty in the Pacific Northwest
seahawknerd.substack.com/p/c…
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Seahawk Nerd retweeted
"When we talk about Julian Love being one of the most under-appreciated studs in the league, that stands to reason you're gonna feel it when he's not out there." 👀
@MoveTheSticks breaks down the #Seahawks week 3️⃣ loss to the Commanders w/ @BrockHuard & @TheMikeSalk.
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Seahawk Nerd retweeted
The Jadarian Price fumbling thing is unfortunate because he's clearly the RB in Seattle's room with the most juice. If the ball security comes around, he's more than likely gonna give the run game life.
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Week 4: Rams at Eagles, Lions at Panthers, Jets at Bears, Broncos at 49ers, and Chargers at Seahawks
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The top of the NFC is anyone's guess, the top of the AFC is once again Chiefs vs Bills, the NFC South has 3 combined wins, and the AFC North is in a four-way tie for 1st.
If the Raiders weren't undefeated I might think we all hopped in a time machine.
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Seahawk Nerd retweeted
Quiet as kept. Over the past 3 years QB has progressively become more fungible but the legacy of the position is still too strong. With pure dropback pass rates in the gutter and everyone playing Jared Goff ball aka under center PA, it's just point and shoot to open players
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You can form a legitimate argument based off of 3 weeks of NFL games this year that RB is a more valuable position than QB.
How many offenses have picked up right where they left off when backup QBs came in? How many RBs have been difference makers aside from the top ~7 guys?
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That's the difference between last season and this one. Seahawks go from playing with house money to being the opponent every team circles on their calendar.
Plus, I liked much of the Commanders off-season moves. Younger, faster, more dynamic... aggresive with nothing to lose.
Yup, I’ll eat that. Trap game. Hella overconfident and Commanders came in hot - respect.
After a Super Bowl, and 12 wins straight, I forgot it’s any given Sunday.
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Seahawk Nerd retweeted
And yet, the Seahawks came out focused on trying to run the ball the first three possessions.
They pivoted, but they averaged nearly -2 EPA/play on those first three possessions in a game they lost by 2 points.
It is okay to just do the obvious and spam JSN from the start.
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The Seahawks had 3 turnovers, failed to score in the low red zone, gifted a TD to the defense, and only lost by 2 points.
At the same time, they were saved from a big explosive run via flag, allowed several 3rd & longs to convert, and couldn't establish an early down run game.
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Poit is, Seattle needed every single one of those Murphy's law comedy of errors to lose that game and they are unlikely to all happen again in the same game. But, there is a real signal underneath it all.
OL needs to be better, and the absences of Charbonnet/Love/Okada are felt.
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Since 2024:
M. Mariota
358 snaps
0.18 EPA/play
51% success rate
5.4 CPOE
J. Daniels
978 snaps
0.14 EPA/play
47% success rate
0.7 CPOE
Since 2025:
M. Mariota
317 snaps
0.13 EPA/play
50% success rate
4.3 CPOE
J. Daniels
320 snaps
0.03 EPA/play
44% success rate
-4.4 CPOE
Mariota played great yesterday but let’s be real, we lost almost every game last year with Mariota starting. JD5 is way better and the score would have been worse had he played I have no doubt. Most of our TD drives came on a short field because Sonny Styles is a menace.
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Ironically, the Seahawks may have won on Sunday if they still had their backup QB and the Commanders still had their starting QB.
The difference between Darnold and Lock has been mostly unnoticeable. Mariota looks like a noticeably better QB than Daniels.
Catchable Throw Rate when Facing Pressure vs. In a Clean Pocket (per @FantasyPtsData)
- Brock Purdy is the MVP front-runner right now for me (and many others)
- Geno Smith is playing great?
- Marcus Mariota may be Terry McLaurin's savior?
- The Bryce Young is elite train may have ended early
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Jadarian Price is a good back. He needs better blocking and more attempts. Of course, he also needs to hold onto the ball, but that should come with better blocking. Fumbles are mostly random. If it becomes a weekly occurrence, I'd start to be concerned.
Yards After Contact per Attempt vs. Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt (per @FantasyPtsData)
Is Kenneth Walker the greatest RB of all time?
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Seahawk Nerd retweeted
Jaxon Smith-Njigba becomes just the second receiver in NFL history to have 400+ receiving yards and 6+ TDs in the first 3 games of the season.
Marvin Harrison is the only other player to hit those numbers that quickly.
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