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As AI transitions to SI-Super Intelligence- @RevShark discusses the S-Curve framework around innovation and where to invest. Thanks Rev for the awesome background info as we start the 3rd curve. $META $CRCL
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The Monterey Collector Car Auctions Set Records, But Not All Cars Performed Equally #montereycarweek #collectorcars pro.thestreet.com/market-com…
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Selling SoFi After $25 Billion Stablecoin Update #MarketRecon . pro.thestreet.com/trade-idea…
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Amid a Lack of Market Leadership, I’m Eyeing These 2 Stocks
I’m adding to this oil play and biopharma stock as the market sees some strange and broad-but-shallow action Tuesday.
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Muse Ignites Meta’s Parabolic Rally, But I’m Taking the Other Side #MarketRecon . pro.thestreet.com/trade-idea…
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@TheStreetPro
Feeling Like It’s 2007 All Over Again pro.thestreet.com/trade-idea…
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They say money goes where it's treated best. Right now, that's anywhere but the US. #investing #stockmarket #etfs
pro.thestreet.com/trade-idea…
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The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remains elevated. Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.
There is the quarter-point hike, and the dot plot indicates another is coming this year. Initial reaction is negative
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Our newest contributor, @neilsethinew on the drop on U.S. Homebuilder Sentiment. Neil is a must follow on TheStreet Pro. pro.thestreet.com/market-com…
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MARKET RECON: Why I Bought Nvidia Into Monday’s AI Panic #MarketRecon . pro.thestreet.com/trade-idea…
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@TheStreetPro
Remembering 9/11 and a Great Man
* On this day, as has been the case for the past 25 years, my eyes remain full of tears.
* The losses are still surreal, those wounds remains fresh and, especially today, it doesn't get easier as time goes by.
In the last few years we've seen:
- The plot to kidnap Gretchen Whitmer
- The storming of the Capitol and pipe bombs left at the RNC and DNC
- The break-in to kidnap Nancy Pelosi and the brutal attack on Paul Pelosi
- Multiple assassination attempts on President Trump
- the assassination of Minnesota's House Speaker Melissa Horman and her husband
- The shooting of State Senator John Hoffman and his wife
- Luigi Mangione's assassination of Brian Thompson
- The assassination of Charlie Kirk
"Political violence is contagious. It is spreading. It is not confined to one side or belief system. It should terrify us all. The foundation of a free society is the ability to participate in it without fear of violence. Political violence is always an attack against us all. You have to be blind not to see that."
- Ezra Klein
I repost this opening missive annually with a heavy heart...
Death leaves a heartache that no one can heal but love leaves a memory no one can steal.
"What do you want me to do,
To watch for you while you're sleeping?
Well, please don't be surprised when you find me dreaming too;
It's just a box of rain,
I don't know who put it there.
Believe it if you need it,
Or leave it if you dare;
But it's just a box of rain
Or a ribbon for your hair;
Such a long, long time to be gone,
And a short time to be there."
- Grateful Dead, Box of Rain
As many are aware, on every anniversary of the World Trade Center tragedy on Sept. 11, I honor my closest friend who was lost 25 years ago — Chuck "Brown Bear" Zion — as well as the other victims of the terrorist attacks that day.
After 2 1/2 decades, it doesn't get easier... (Go To @thestreetpro for the rest of the column)
@squawkbox @cnbcfastmoney @cnbchalftime @business @andrewrsorkin @saraeisen @BeckyQuick @SullyCNBC @guyadami @WhitneyTilson @Convertbond @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1 @ferrotv @annmarie @peterboockvar @KeithMcCullough @Hedgeye_HGRO @Hedgeye_HGRO @Hedgeye_HELS @HedgeyeDJ @LanceRoberts @gnoble79 @carlquintanilla @TheJudgeCNBC
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Thinking about buying Oracle $ORCL? Skip it says @Sarge986 . Here's why. pro.thestreet.com/trade-idea…
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Every other week, we join @TipRanksJulie to discuss what's happening in the markets. Here's our discussion on $NVDA and $META pro.thestreet.com/posts/vide…
#stockmarket #stocktrading
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TheStreet Pro retweeted
Warsh will say his primary focus is on price stability.
That it is important to gauge aspects of cap ex and corporate earnings.
And that he needs clear market signals - as unfiltered as positive.
He will express concern about inflation trend, while indicating for a "quieter" central bank.
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Those looking for a hawkish tone from Warsh got their wish (link to speech below). While his overall messaging is very similar to the majority as disclosed in the July minutes: “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do,” he overall tilts more in the direction of the hawks.
Warsh deviates from the position of the doves/centrists who believe that current rates are "mildly (or modestly) restrictive" instead saying “on balance, I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.”
In addition he says he takes little comfort from the recent inflation readings. While "better than expected,” Warsh said “they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.”
In that regard he specifically points out that "Over the past 12 months, 54 percent of goods and services in the PCE basket showed price increases above 3 percent. This is well below the post-pandemic highs of about 77 percent, but it remains well above the level of 32 percent in the two decades that preceded the pandemic. Looking over just the past six months, the conclusion is similar: Of goods and services in the PCE basket, 49 percent showed annualized price increases above 3 percent."
And on inflation expectations he says "The thing about market measures of inflation expectations in economic history is that they tend to look strong and durable until they don't... There is one signal nobody can miss: The responsibility for 65 months of sustained, elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank. And that is where it belongs."
He also downplays any concerns about the labor market and economy saying "For my part, today I am impressed by the overall performance of the economy, which appears to have strengthened.... Labor markets are quite stable. The jobless rate, at 4.1 percent, remains low by historical standards and has not changed much for a couple of years. Unemployment claims, on a four-week average—an empirically robust real-time indicator—are near their lowest level in decades."
In explaining why the Fed didn't hike in July he says "A good majority of my colleagues and I thought the wiser course was to await new information in the intermeeting period—especially given possible developments in supply chains, investment flows, and geopolitics—before deciding whether a change in interest rate policy was advisable. And we expressed our joint readiness to act as circumstances might require."
federalreserve.gov/newsevent…
Fed watchers at JPMorgan, Apollo Global, and Morgan Stanley are among a number of analysts calling for a hawkish Warsh.
-If he can convince the market that managing inflation is his priority, then “some of the angst on Fed credibility will reduce,” said Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Investment Management. Misra said a clear condemnation of high inflation from Warsh would result in lower term premium.
-“If the Fed is focused on inflation, term premium should get crushed because now the Fed is a lot more credible,” said Vishal Khanduja, head of broad markets fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
-If Warsh walks back some of his comments from his press conference following the central bank’s July meeting on Friday, “this would likely bearishly flatten the Treasury curve,” which happens when short-term rates rise faster than long-term ones, according to Jay Barry, JPMorgan’s head of global rates strategy.
-“He will have to deliver something that is clearer than the July press conference,” Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. While Warsh doesn’t need to telegraph the Fed’s next move on interest rates, Slok said the Chairman should offer his view on the state of inflation and the job market to make his priorities clear. “If he does not give any framework guidance, the risk is that that it will involve a much higher move in long rates,” Slok said. “The whole yield curve is at risk of moving higher,” he added.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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TheStreet Pro retweeted
My bunny had a good nose, see tweet below...
Warsh will say his primary focus is on price stability.
That it is important to gauge aspects of cap ex and corporate earnings.
And that he needs clear market signals - as unfiltered as positive.
He will express concern about inflation trend, while indicating for a "quieter" central bank.
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TheStreet Pro retweeted
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Will Tackle Inflation $EVLV $ALTO $SOFI #MarketRecon . pro.thestreet.com/posts/fed-…
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TheStreet Pro retweeted
TSM Revenue Surges Higher: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Monday
Trump “low-keying” it with Iran, Meta’s new AI model and other headlines moving stocks this morning.
$TSM $META $AAPL $KLAR $AMZN $META $GOOGL @TheStreetPro @TSProPortfolio @TipRanks
tsp-wa.azurewebsites.net/pos…
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