Here’s my take. I suspect the bottom side moves have been bought up by the shorts to cover. If we see the amount of shorts dwindle I would expect the bottom side moves could become more in line with MSTR. Until then strong upside with not much downside.
🔥STRIVE BITCOIN MACHINE DOMINATION🔥
ASST is trading at a 2.03x mNAV, roughly a 103% premium to CEBE NAV today.
That sounds insane until you ask the question that actually matters:
What am I paying that premium FOR?
You aren't paying a premium for Bitcoin, because with ASST you don't own Bitcoin. You own a slice of a corporation that has a capital markets machine that is accreting an increasing residual value that you are exposed to.
At ~$24.28 ASST and ~$77K Bitcoin, CEBE NAV is roughly $11.97/share.
If Strive raises zero additional capital, Bitcoin has to reach roughly $127K for CEBE NAV/share to grow into today’s $24.28 stock price.
That's interesting. We almost saw $127k BTC last October.
So in the static-balance-sheet case, buying ASST today is basically pre-paying for ~$127K Bitcoin.
But Strive does not have a static balance sheet.
Its recent capital-raising pace has been roughly:
$129M/month of common equity
$96M/month of SATA preferred equity
~$225M/month combined
~$2.7 BILLION annualized
That changes the math.
Common stock sold while ASST trades materially above CEBE NAV can be accretive to existing shareholders.
SATA raises capital to acquire additional Bitcoin without issuing additional common shares, although it comes with a preferred claim and dividend cost.
If Strive can sustain something resembling that recent ~$2.7B annualized capital-raising pace, my model estimates that after 12 months the Bitcoin price required for CEBE NAV/share to equal today’s $24.28 falls from roughly:
$127K → ~$116K
Push the time horizon farther and continued accretive capital formation can lower that hurdle further.
This is why saying:
“ASST trades at 2x CEBE, therefore it is overpriced”
is incomplete analysis.
A premium can absolutely make economic sense depending on:
1. Your time horizon
2. Your Bitcoin price assumption
3. How much capital Strive can raise
4. How accretively that capital can be raised
5. How much Bitcoin exposure they can build per common share
If you think Bitcoin stays around $77K and Strive’s capital markets machine stalls, paying a 103% premium looks terrible.
If you think Bitcoin is headed toward $120K–$150K over the next couple years AND Strive continues raising billions of dollars of capital at attractive terms, the premium can be “paid off” by the growth of the underlying CEBE.
That’s the bet.
You’re buying the future CEBE/share that you believe Strive can manufacture before your investment horizon ends.
And the higher your Bitcoin assumption and the longer your time horizon, the more rational paying a premium today can become: