The recent trends in Uganda’s exchange rate have left both economists and the public concerned. Yet Dr. Atingi Ego, the Governor of the Bank of Uganda, whose communications carry official weight, emphasized that the Bank’s intervention is intended to smooth out excess volatility. He added that if the shilling has been depreciating, it hasn’t been erratic enough to warrant intervention yet. Of course, in a system where Uganda seeks to maintain fixed exchange rates between the UGX and the currencies of most other countries, especially the USD, without using foreign exchange controls or their equivalent, you would agree with the Governor that there is little allowable margin of freedom with respect to internal monetary policy. I don’t think that is enough for the Bank of Uganda to wash its hands of the sin of the recent exchange rate struggles. With respect to internal policies, the stock of money, broadly defined, is a critical tool for maintaining external equilibrium. Domestic monetary conditions are, on several occasions, the result of internal policies and events affecting the demand for and supply of exchange rates, and therefore the behavior of the stock of money required to maintain external equilibrium. This now warrants a review of recent trends in broad money growth in Uganda, which the Bank of Uganda has exclusive authority over. I have consistently warned (month on month) about the consequences of excess money supply since November 2025. Money supply has grown at an annual rate just above 18% through July 2026. This rate of growth is well above Uganda's productive capacity. This growth in money has produced a buoyant capital market and increased exchange balances for both businesses and households. This has increased net wealth, which has shown up in higher imports, given that Uganda is not highly industrialized. It is the faster money growth, not imports, that is causing the recent exchange rate depreciation. Now that the shilling has reached 4000 or higher, as I accurately predicted in 2024, many reasons are being cited to explain the recent trends in the exchange rate, including the sovereignty bill, rising fuel prices, and so on, all of which may be consequences or symptoms of the main problem. If you forget everything written above, remember these two: First, there is no other way to sustainably maintain a stable exchange rate in a floating exchange rate system than by properly managing the money supply, and second, exchange rate instability is simply a symptom of underlying economic conditions, and we may deny that, but not for too long.

The Applied Economics Association has rolled out the Economic Hub Fellowship Program and is now accepting applications for its first inagural cohort 2026/2027 aeaug.org/2026/10/01/the…

My Principal, @MakCoBAMS , Prof. @EdBbaale , has made a presentation of our co-authored paper titled "The Role of Noonomy in Addressing Development Challenges in East Africa" in Rome, Italy. He made a compelling case for aligning economic growth with social welfare needs at the Global Congress of the World Association of Noonomy, taking place from September 16 to 19, 2026. Also in attendance at the global event is the Deputy Vice Chancellor for Academic Affairs at @Makerere , Prof. @SsaliSarah , who presided over Makerere's inaugural conference on the Theory of Noonomy held recently. @EPRC_Official @centre4policy @NPA_UG @mofpedU

Earlier today the @newsUMA Economic and Business Policy Committee met with the East African Business Council @EABCjumuiya to strengthen regional collaborations, address trade barriers, and advance a more competitive East African business environment. The engagement also marked the launch of the East Africa Review Magazine, a platform that will promote regional trade, investment, and private sector voices across the EAC. #RegionalIntegration

I believe agriculture remains the foundation of Uganda's economy. If we get value addition and resilience right, agriculture can be the biggest job and wealth creator for the rural population. What's the single biggest thing holding back agricultural transformation in your view? #UgandaAgriculture #ValueAddition #OperationWealthCreation #EconomicTransformation #AEAUganda

Lastly! WHAT SHOULD BE THE PRIORITY? 1. Prudent fiscal rules for oil money 2. Accelerating non-oil sectors (manufacturing & agriculture) Investing in human capital What's your view? Are we ready for double-digit growth? @aea_uganda #UgandanEconomy #OilProduction #EconomicGrowth #PolicyAnalysis

The idea that Uganda can rapidly expand its manufacturing sector through grand national development plans, subsidies, industrial parks, or declarations of “years of mass industrialization” is wishful thinking rather than serious economic analysis. okwareemmanuel.blogspot.com/…

Embrace reading and acquire knowledge no one will tell you! Download full article through the Link aeaug.org/2026/06/23/who-wil…

The uncomfortable truth is that Uganda will not “manufacture more” in any transformative sense merely by wishing it or issuing decrees. Sustainable industrial growth stems from a stable monetary order, prudent public finances, and the gradual accumulation of human and physical capital. Until policymakers internalize these realities rather than chasing fashionable slogans about structural transformation, manufacturing output will fall short of aspirations. Over the medium term, the data will continue to bear this out.

The National Women’s Council of Uganda @NWC_Ug @NWCUganda as an HIV Response Partner of the Uganda AIDS Commission is taking it to schools. #Bakery of Leaders #HIV_AIDS #Behavioral_Change #Mentorship_Strong. Thank you @aidscommission for the service over the years, we are proud Associates. Collective efforts @UgandaMediaCent @GovUganda @Mglsd_UG @millybabalanda @NationalSIGUg 🌸 The President of the Mother’s Union of Uganda is one of a kind, thanking her @MothersUnionCOU

The @newsUMA Annual Financial Symposium is here! Join us as we forge a path towards a sustainable, affordable and long term financing for the manufacturing sector! Register via link below 👇 forms.gle/cnFriuTEgCgQcbJH7

Click on the link to access the full article via @aea_uganda Website and don't forget to share your feedback! aeaug.org/2026/06/23/who-wil… @SarahKagingo @nbstv @ubctvuganda @ntvuganda

My friends, followers and fellow economists, I will join @afrieconomist X-Space this Thursday, June 25, 2026. We will be discussing the recently announced Uganda National Budget FY 2026/27, focusing on its bearing on the ordinary Ugandans in terms of taxes, prices and daily living costs. Do join us. #KnowYourBudget26

#Article Release in the next few hours! Industrialization is not merely a collection of factories, It is a symphony of production and finance! #4Questions, #5answers @ProfNuwagaba @SarahKagingo @DailyMonitor @ntvuganda @newvisionwire @UgandaMediaCent @Ssenyondwa49801

🔔Set a reminder for my upcoming 𝕏 Space: x.com/i/spaces/1wxWjjDbWXpJQ 🎙️Panelist: Mr. @emmanuelokware_ - Monetary Economist. 📌Topic: What the National Budget FY2026/27 Means for an Ordinary Ugandan: Taxes, Prices & Daily Costs. 🗓️Date: Thursday, 25th June, 2026 ⏰Time: 8:00 PM – 10:00 PM E.A.T 🔊Platform: 𝕏 Spaces See you then 👍

Today I was honored to represent @newsUMA at the Stanbic Business Forum, panel under the theme, "From Farm to Shelf". I shared 3 practical levers for SME growth: lower cost of capital, revivie the cooperative model, and patient financing for manufacturers. #StanbicForum

Interesting summary for FY 2026/27, my key figures are follows: 1. 84.39 trillion, an overall total significantly increasing from the previous 72 trillions. This portrays the spending levels required to grow the economy nominally to USD 500 billion by 2040. 2. 40.16 trillion, of tax contribution. This will be mobilized (evidently) by raising some existing taxes and by introducing new taxes. This reflects increase in the tax burden on Ugandans and business. Projections for the coming few financial years indicate a similar trend. 3. 11.97 trillions and 11.27 trillions, for domestic borrowing and external project financing to finance the budget deficit. These together will add a net stock of new debt of over 23 trillion. 4. 33.4 trillion, nearly 40% of that will be spent on debt servicing, not service delivery. 5. Out of 7.17 trillion for local government, 58.8%, the larger percent will be received to cater for wages. The smaller percent will be devoted to service delivery. You are welcome. #KnowYourBudget26 @ACODE_Uganda @centre4policy @CSBAGUGANDA @nbstv @HakiimsWampamba @ChrisHigenyi @nextradio_ug @CanaryMugume @SamsonMKasumba @aea_uganda @AyellaKanda @pwatchug

.@emmanuelokware_: Having government introduce programs that help people get out of poverty is very handy. #NextBigTalk #NextRadioUg

.@emmanuelokware_: For the past three years, Uganda’s inflation rate has been under 5%, which the Central Bank has been aiming for. Our money supply over time has been well managed by the Central Bank, which is key in controlling inflation. #NextBigTalk #NextRadioUg

.@emmanuelokware_: There are already economists studying the PDM, and the results around Kampala are actually amazing, showing that it is working to reduce poverty levels. #NextBigTalk #NextRadioUg