A very commendable job, keeping inflation below the 5%/yr medium target of the @BOU_Official in the past three years. The recent upturn in inflation is still below the target, but could worsen with a monetary overhang from excess money growth since late 2025. #UgandaInflation

The recent trends in Uganda’s exchange rate have left both economists and the public concerned. Yet Dr. Atingi Ego, the Governor of the Bank of Uganda, whose communications carry official weight, emphasized that the Bank’s intervention is intended to smooth out excess volatility. He added that if the shilling has been depreciating, it hasn’t been erratic enough to warrant intervention yet. Of course, in a system where Uganda seeks to maintain fixed exchange rates between the UGX and the currencies of most other countries, especially the USD, without using foreign exchange controls or their equivalent, you would agree with the Governor that there is little allowable margin of freedom with respect to internal monetary policy. I don’t think that is enough for the Bank of Uganda to wash its hands of the sin of the recent exchange rate struggles. With respect to internal policies, the stock of money, broadly defined, is a critical tool for maintaining external equilibrium. Domestic monetary conditions are, on several occasions, the result of internal policies and events affecting the demand for and supply of exchange rates, and therefore the behavior of the stock of money required to maintain external equilibrium. This now warrants a review of recent trends in broad money growth in Uganda, which the Bank of Uganda has exclusive authority over. I have consistently warned (month on month) about the consequences of excess money supply since November 2025. Money supply has grown at an annual rate just above 18% through July 2026. This rate of growth is well above Uganda's productive capacity. This growth in money has produced a buoyant capital market and increased exchange balances for both businesses and households. This has increased net wealth, which has shown up in higher imports, given that Uganda is not highly industrialized. It is the faster money growth, not imports, that is causing the recent exchange rate depreciation. Now that the shilling has reached 4000 or higher, as I accurately predicted in 2024, many reasons are being cited to explain the recent trends in the exchange rate, including the sovereignty bill, rising fuel prices, and so on, all of which may be consequences or symptoms of the main problem. If you forget everything written above, remember these two: First, there is no other way to sustainably maintain a stable exchange rate in a floating exchange rate system than by properly managing the money supply, and second, exchange rate instability is simply a symptom of underlying economic conditions, and we may deny that, but not for too long.

The recent trends in Uganda’s exchange rate have left both economists and the public concerned. Yet Dr. Atingi Ego, the Governor of the Bank of Uganda, whose communications carry official weight, emphasized that the Bank’s intervention is intended to smooth out excess volatility. He added that if the shilling has been depreciating, it hasn’t been erratic enough to warrant intervention yet. Of course, in a system where Uganda seeks to maintain fixed exchange rates between the UGX and the currencies of most other countries, especially the USD, without using foreign exchange controls or their equivalent, you would agree with the Governor that there is little allowable margin of freedom with respect to internal monetary policy. I don’t think that is enough for the Bank of Uganda to wash its hands of the sin of the recent exchange rate struggles. With respect to internal policies, the stock of money, broadly defined, is a critical tool for maintaining external equilibrium. Domestic monetary conditions are, on several occasions, the result of internal policies and events affecting the demand for and supply of exchange rates, and therefore the behavior of the stock of money required to maintain external equilibrium. This now warrants a review of recent trends in broad money growth in Uganda, which the Bank of Uganda has exclusive authority over. I have consistently warned (month on month) about the consequences of excess money supply since November 2025. Money supply has grown at an annual rate just above 18% through July 2026. This rate of growth is well above Uganda's productive capacity. This growth in money has produced a buoyant capital market and increased exchange balances for both businesses and households. This has increased net wealth, which has shown up in higher imports, given that Uganda is not highly industrialized. It is the faster money growth, not imports, that is causing the recent exchange rate depreciation. Now that the shilling has reached 4000 or higher, as I accurately predicted in 2024, many reasons are being cited to explain the recent trends in the exchange rate, including the sovereignty bill, rising fuel prices, and so on, all of which may be consequences or symptoms of the main problem. If you forget everything written above, remember these two: First, there is no other way to sustainably maintain a stable exchange rate in a floating exchange rate system than by properly managing the money supply, and second, exchange rate instability is simply a symptom of underlying economic conditions, and we may deny that, but not for too long.

You have won my follow

Using @WorldBank Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average) data for Uganda from 1960 to 2022, my model forecasts Uganda’s exchange rate to continue increasing with absolute casts for 2024 at 3871 with upper and lower bounds upto 4293.758 and 3449.686 with a 95% Confidence Internal. Note: the forecast also predicts Exchange rate to continue to increase in the period of 2025, 2026 and 2027 with absolute forecasts at 3960.354, 4048.746 & 4137.068 respectively with upper and lower bounds reaching 4951.991 & 3322.145 respectively by 2027. The Central Bank, @BOU_Official has raised the CBR up from 9.5% to 10% this month and hopes this will increase the returns, create demand and consequently appreciate the shilling. Model Accuracy using MAPE = 11.42%

The wise man once said it back in 2024 @emmanuelokware_ much respect my brother @BOU_Official

Using @WorldBank Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average) data for Uganda from 1960 to 2022, my model forecasts Uganda’s exchange rate to continue increasing with absolute casts for 2024 at 3871 with upper and lower bounds upto 4293.758 and 3449.686 with a 95% Confidence Internal. Note: the forecast also predicts Exchange rate to continue to increase in the period of 2025, 2026 and 2027 with absolute forecasts at 3960.354, 4048.746 & 4137.068 respectively with upper and lower bounds reaching 4951.991 & 3322.145 respectively by 2027. The Central Bank, @BOU_Official has raised the CBR up from 9.5% to 10% this month and hopes this will increase the returns, create demand and consequently appreciate the shilling. Model Accuracy using MAPE = 11.42%

While speaking to the @iimr_buckingham’s Monetary Club Podcast recorded in January and published in February, I warned that the then growth in the quantity of money risked Uganda losing its inflation stability post COVID-19. That I must say, was well before the Middle East crisis took shape. Half a year after later, the @BOU_Official projects inflation to step out of their 5%/yr medium target, an average between 5.2-6.5% in the State of the Economy report for June 2026. #InflationUganda

The perfect example of an emotional breakdown. Those who are limited to theoretical economics tend to follow this pattern. Forecasts from 2024 to 2026 which has not ended contradict your model. I used Xe to compare with rates FYI not AI understand the diffrence. The UGX even appreciated in 2025 did not know how unstable again you are not capital. Sit aside whilst we also add oil revenue to your governments income. You are deeply insecure unstable if there is medicine go have it. The dashes illustrates who uses AI. Not worth my time Quote that

Your model is flat wrong AI is not needed to determine that. You take offence to basic findings and claim I use AI when your contradiction is so clear. I dont debate with people who have tantrums when are flat wrong. Ignore T bills what an absolute moron

the model projects continued depreciation, while the narrative says the CBR hike will appreciate the shilling. The shilling mostly moves on flows (coffee and gold receipts, FDI, offshore T-bill demand, donor dollars, BoU intervention You cant have it both ways hence glaring contradiction