The recent trends in Uganda’s exchange rate have left both economists and the public concerned. Yet Dr. Atingi Ego, the Governor of the Bank of Uganda, whose communications carry official weight, emphasized that the Bank’s intervention is intended to smooth out excess volatility. He added that if the shilling has been depreciating, it hasn’t been erratic enough to warrant intervention yet. Of course, in a system where Uganda seeks to maintain fixed exchange rates between the UGX and the currencies of most other countries, especially the USD, without using foreign exchange controls or their equivalent, you would agree with the Governor that there is little allowable margin of freedom with respect to internal monetary policy. I don’t think that is enough for the Bank of Uganda to wash its hands of the sin of the recent exchange rate struggles. With respect to internal policies, the stock of money, broadly defined, is a critical tool for maintaining external equilibrium. Domestic monetary conditions are, on several occasions, the result of internal policies and events affecting the demand for and supply of exchange rates, and therefore the behavior of the stock of money required to maintain external equilibrium. This now warrants a review of recent trends in broad money growth in Uganda, which the Bank of Uganda has exclusive authority over. I have consistently warned (month on month) about the consequences of excess money supply since November 2025. Money supply has grown at an annual rate just above 18% through July 2026. This rate of growth is well above Uganda's productive capacity. This growth in money has produced a buoyant capital market and increased exchange balances for both businesses and households. This has increased net wealth, which has shown up in higher imports, given that Uganda is not highly industrialized. It is the faster money growth, not imports, that is causing the recent exchange rate depreciation. Now that the shilling has reached 4000 or higher, as I accurately predicted in 2024, many reasons are being cited to explain the recent trends in the exchange rate, including the sovereignty bill, rising fuel prices, and so on, all of which may be consequences or symptoms of the main problem. If you forget everything written above, remember these two: First, there is no other way to sustainably maintain a stable exchange rate in a floating exchange rate system than by properly managing the money supply, and second, exchange rate instability is simply a symptom of underlying economic conditions, and we may deny that, but not for too long.

I predicted it in 2024, long before many reasons that are being used to loosely explain the current depreciation, such as the Middle East crisis. The main point is that the exchange rate is simply an indicator of underlying economic conditions — and this current one points to underlying economic problems. I attribute this recent trend to money supply mismanagement since late 2025.

Using @WorldBank Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average) data for Uganda from 1960 to 2022, my model forecasts Uganda’s exchange rate to continue increasing with absolute casts for 2024 at 3871 with upper and lower bounds upto 4293.758 and 3449.686 with a 95% Confidence Internal. Note: the forecast also predicts Exchange rate to continue to increase in the period of 2025, 2026 and 2027 with absolute forecasts at 3960.354, 4048.746 & 4137.068 respectively with upper and lower bounds reaching 4951.991 & 3322.145 respectively by 2027. The Central Bank, @BOU_Official has raised the CBR up from 9.5% to 10% this month and hopes this will increase the returns, create demand and consequently appreciate the shilling. Model Accuracy using MAPE = 11.42%

A few days ago in Berlin, I met a Muslim colleague whom I first met in Canada in the winter of 2013. At the time, she had recently left Saudi Arabia and migrated to North America and got ballooned. She celebrated her departure with the enthusiasm of a freed Ugandan political prisoner. She spoke passionately about escaping the conservative religious and cultural restrictions in which she said she had been encapsulated. She became a radical feminist, liberated her mouth from compulsory silence, and developed the confidence of an evangelist who had recently discovered a new gospel called liberalism. She embraced her new freedom comprehensively. There were no half-measures. She drank alcohol, wore whatever pleased her, and allowed her glistening thighs and juicy cleavage to participate freely in public life without seeking permission from any religious committee. Pork, previously treated almost as an edible criminal offence, found its way onto her plate and into her stomach. She occasionally smoked weed. She debated liberalism on panels and spoke about individual autonomy with the conviction of someone who had personally crossed the Red Sea and left Pharaoh shouting from the opposite bank. She called all this freedom, and anybody who questioned it risked receiving a free postgraduate seminar on patriarchy. Thirteen years later, in 2026, we spoke again. Time had performed one of its favourite practical jokes, ie, the revolutionary was now the mother of three teenagers, twin daughters and a son, and suddenly liberalism had developed complications. She complained that the children had become troublesome. They were too independent. They challenged her rules. They apparently possessed opinions in quantities their mother considered medically excessive. Then came the sentence that has probably been uttered by every former rebel since human reproduction began.....'I was not raised like that'. Here was the woman who had spent years explaining precisely why she was delighted not to have been raised differently now invoking the manner in which she had been raised as evidence for the prosecution. Then she disclosed the remedy. She had sent the children back to Saudi Arabia for cultural sensitisation, acclimatisation and communal haranguing. I laughed. My dear, I reminded her, when we met in Canada thirteen years ago, you were celebrating your escape from the very cultural factory to which you have now returned your children for refurbishment. You escaped Saudi conservatism, arrived in North America, removed the cultural speed governor, and drove happily down the motorway of personal liberty. Now your children have inherited the vehicle, discovered the accelerator, and you are screaming from the passenger seat that everybody should respect the speed limit. Apparently, freedom is a magnificent philosophy until your own children read the footnotes of it. This is one of the great comedies of adulthood. When your father prohibited something, he was a patriarchal dinosaur obstructing human progress. When your daughter does the same thing you once fought for the right to do, you suddenly remember that your grandfather was a remarkably wise man. The rules you escaped become the rules you retrieve. Rukirabachwezi

My niece in P5 provides loans to her classmates at a 10% rate. So, I must visit her school next week to speak with a boy named Mukisa. His loan is long overdue 😂😂😂🤦🏽‍♂️

This too, applied in high school especially single schools, as a non candidate never fight a candidate.

Experience the @ebusxpress free of charge from 28 August to 6 September on routes within Kira Municipality. #OpenGovUg

There's a story behind the eclipse monument here in mbarara city about bunyoro and Ankole, I really would want to see that happen today😎😂

This relates to what's happening in mbarara city currently.

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40 years ago, Uganda had a sizable population of sober illiterates but today, we have a worrying number of educated stupid people.

Eh! 🙌🫢

Weekend well spent!

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I have an issue with how the Male gender is handled, this is an incident where a young boy was found with a young girl in a lodge in Masaka and the two are said to be students The incident was covered by NBS , and my question is one, why would the girl’s face be covered and the boy is not I think the Male Gender is being mishandled and treated unfairly in the name of being fair to the Female Gender This should stop, Men’s rights matter just like women’s, if you believe us to be equal, let’s entirely be equal

Naye mwe abakazi bemukolera ssente okubasanyusa , ani yabanyiiza😆

WHAT MAKES A CURRENCY STRONG? There has been a lot of debate in regard to what makes a currency potent. Is it the exchange rate against the United States Dollar (USD)?; the size of the notes in your wallet?; or something else?

The truth is; a strong currency starts with a strong and productive economy. Take the Ugandan shilling for example. You feel its strength in very simple things: what Shs10,000 can buy today compared to what it bought a year ago.

If prices keep surging, your money buys less of a given commodity or service. That is a sign of eroded purchasing power.