Science Lead @temple. Biomed Scientist in #longevity. Mentor & Investor in Health startups. Past CTO @BioVivaScience, Researcher @CASMIORG, Founders Health.

Oxford, England
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A weekly jab in the belly is generating more revenue than the entire AI industry. Ozempic + Mounjaro: $71B in 2025. OpenAI + Anthropic: $29B. And they've barely started. ~2% of the 800 million eligible patients can currently access them. h/t @DrSamuelBHume
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By 75, your kidneys may still look nearly normal on a scan, even though they have lost nearly half their filtering units. Researchers at @MayoClinic and @ClevelandClinic studied 1,638 living kidney donors, all of them screened as healthy enough to give one away. From CT scans and a small biopsy, they counted the filtering units, called glomeruli, in each kidney. Donors aged 18 to 29 had about 990,000. Donors aged 70 to 75 had about 520,000, which is 48% fewer, while the kidney's outer layer had shrunk by only 16%. Adults cannot grow new filters. What you have left is what you finish with, which is why doctors cut so many drug doses as people age and why the same dose of a common painkiller lands differently at 75 than at 35. Two drug classes now slow that decline once kidney disease has started. SGLT2 inhibitors, first sold for diabetes, cut the combined risk of major kidney decline, kidney failure, or death from kidney or heart causes by 39% in DAPA-CKD, in people with and without diabetes. Semaglutide cut major kidney events by 24% in FLOW. These were different people at different ages, each measured once, so this is a snapshot of a population rather than a life history of a single kidney.
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Sources and notes 1. The study. Aleksandar Denic, Andrew Rule and colleagues at Mayo Clinic, with Cleveland Clinic, "evaluated 1,638 living kidney donors." Filters (glomeruli) per kidney were estimated from CT cortical volume multiplied by glomerular density on a biopsy. JASN, 2017. Open access. doi.org/10.1681/ASN.20160201… pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/article… 2. The numbers. "Donors 18 to 29 years old had a mean 990,661 nonsclerotic glomeruli" per kidney, which "progressively decreased to 520,410 nonsclerotic glomeruli per kidney... in donors 70 to 75 years old. Between the youngest and oldest age groups, the number of nonsclerotic glomeruli decreased by 48%, whereas cortical volume decreased by only 16%." Nonsclerotic means not scarred, so still working. The paper puts the loss at 7.3% per decade. 3. Function. GFR fell along with filter number, but these donors were healthy enough to donate. The authors: "Loss of nephrons with aging is grossly underappreciated by both the degree of glomerulosclerosis on biopsy and the cortical volume decline on imaging." 4. Limits. Different people at different ages, not the same people followed. Donors are healthier than average. 5. Slowing decline. DAPA-CKD enrolled 4,304 people with CKD, with or without type 2 diabetes. The HR was 0.61 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.72) for a composite of sustained 50% or greater eGFR decline, end-stage kidney disease, or death from renal or cardiovascular causes (Heerspink et al., NEJM, 2020). doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa202481… EMPA-KIDNEY: HR 0.72 (0.64 to 0.82) (NEJM, 2023). doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa220423… FLOW enrolled 3,533 people with type 2 diabetes and CKD. The HR for major kidney disease events was 0.76 (0.66 to 0.88) (Perkovic et al., NEJM, 2024). doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa240334… 6. Neither class has been tested for slowing normal age-related filter loss in healthy people. The 16% figure is cortical volume, the kidney's outer layer.
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Avi Roy retweeted
Does @temple really monitor blood flow to the brain, or just the scalp? In our second validation study, we tested Temple BrainFlow against time-domain NIRS, one of the few technologies that can separate brain blood volume changes from scalp blood volume changes. We had 60 participants go through three physiological challenges: head-down tilt, stand-to-squat, stand-to-supine. Across all three challenges, Temple BrainFlow tracked brain blood volume at r=0.84-0.91, significantly more than scalp blood volume. The most significant result came from head-down tilt, where Temple's correlation with the brain was 0.91, and scalp correlation was just 0.49. Key takeaway: Temple tracks the brain, much more than the scalp. Why this matters: Cerebral Blood Flow responds to almost everything longevity-oriented people already do. It rises with aerobic exercise, and VO2max correlates directly with it. It rises with cold exposure. It rises with meditation. Better sleep sustains it. It drops when you sit for too long. It drops when you are dehydrated. It is one of the most responsive and integrative biomarkers of how well your body is actually running, and aging. Until now, you could only measure it in a clinical setting, in a single snapshot. Temple measures it continuously, in real time, while you live your life. And Temple is, as of today, the only wearable in the world with validations against brain blood volume, and not just scalp. This study was guided by our Scientific Advisor, Prof. David Boas, Director of Boston University's Neurophotonics Center, and the mind behind several new, high-impact, biomedical optical technologies in neuroscience, including NIRS. This is the second modality Temple BrainFlow is now validated against, after Transcranial Doppler. More coming soon. Link: biorxiv.org/content/10.64898… The paper is posted as a preprint and submitted for peer review. We encourage researchers to replicate this. We'll happily loan Temples to any qualified researcher who wants to pressure-test any of our metrics independently. Cc @agingroy
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The Book of AI Doomerism: A Musical
A Flock of Altruists - Hit The Breaks Except For Me
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If metformin really slowed aging, you would expect it to change the one outcome that matters most: who dies. Somebody finally tested that in older people without diabetes, and the result was a flop. Metformin has been in pharmacies since the 1950s and is the most-cited candidate anti-aging drug on the internet. The case for it is not nothing. In the 1998 UKPDS trial, overweight people with diabetes on metformin had 36% fewer deaths over about 10 years than people managed on diet alone. @NirBarzilaiMD's TAME trial has aimed to test it properly in more than 3,000 healthy adults aged 65 to 79 for years, and is still raising the money to launch. Met-HeFT, run from Aarhus in Denmark (@AUHdk), got partway there. It enrolled 940 people with weak hearts, average age 70, with only about 10% carrying a diabetes diagnosis and the rest running high blood sugar or obesity, then gave them metformin or placebo and followed them for 3.7 years. Death, worsening heart failure, heart attack or stroke hit 25.1% on metformin and 23.4% on placebo. Metformin also failed to cut new diabetes, and it caused no harm. So the takeaway is simple: in a real-world test outside diabetes, metformin did not deliver a longevity win. One disease group, one country, and a heart endpoint rather than an aging one. The bigger test outside diabetes is the VA's IMPACT trial in 7,410 people with prediabetes and artery disease, reporting around 2029.
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Sources and notes 1. The trial. Met-HeFT, part of DANHEART, run from Aarhus University Hospital in Denmark. n=940 with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction, average age 70, only about 10% with diabetes (the rest had raised blood sugar or obesity). Metformin vs placebo, mean 3.7 years. Presented at ESC Congress, August 30, 2026. escardio.org/news/press/pres… clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT… 2. The result. Death, worsening heart failure, heart attack or stroke hit 25.1% on metformin and 23.4% on placebo (HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.42, p=0.48). No cut in new diabetes. No associated harm. 3. Why it matters for aging. The anti-aging case for metformin leans partly on heart protection seen in people with diabetes. This is one of the few randomized tests of hard outcomes in people mostly without diabetes. 4. The original signal. UKPDS 34 (Lancet 1998): overweight people with diabetes on metformin had 36% fewer deaths over a median 10.7 years than those on diet alone. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9742… 5. TAME. The proposed metformin trial for aging wants more than 3,000 adults aged 65 to 79 without diabetes, and it's still raising money to launch. afar.org/tame-trial 6. Next. The larger randomized test of metformin's heart claim outside diabetes is the VA's IMPACT trial (n=7,410, prediabetes plus artery disease), due around 2029. clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT… 7. Limits. One disease group (weak hearts), a modest sample, and a symptom-plus-events endpoint rather than a pure aging outcome.
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What if CAR-T could be made inside the body instead of in a factory? Since 2025, Big Pharma has bet up to $3.4 billion on that possibility. A three-patient trial in Shanghai just offered an early glimpse of what that could look like. Traditional CAR-T is powerful but cumbersome. Doctors remove a patient’s T cells, engineer them in a lab to kill B cells, then return them after chemotherapy. In a German series of 15 people with lupus, myositis, or scleroderma, every patient came off immune drugs. But treatment takes weeks, and this summer Novartis halted eight autoimmune CAR-T trials after three deaths from a severe immune reaction. Researchers at Ruijin Hospital and Abogen skipped the cell factory. They gave patients an injection. ABO2203 packages mRNA in tiny fat particles. Once injected, the mRNA instructs the body to make a protein that binds a T cell at one end and a B cell at the other. In three patients with lupus, Sjogren's, or antiphospholipid syndrome whose immune systems were destroying their platelets, B cells vanished, platelet counts recovered over six months, and side effects remained mild to moderate. There was no cytokine storm. When B cells returned, they were young, naive cells. It is only three patients at one hospital. But it helps explain why AbbVie, AstraZeneca, and Gilead are betting on reprogramming immune cells inside the body. If the approach holds up, the body itself could become the cell factory.
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Sources and notes 1. The paper. Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University (Qiongyi Hu, Chengde Yang) and Abogen (Bo Ying), Cell, September 18, 2026. ABO2203 is "a lipid nanoparticle-formulated messenger RNA (mRNA) encoding a CD19-targeting TCE" (T-cell engager). In "three patients with refractory secondary immune thrombocytopenia," it "achieved rapid and complete peripheral B cell depletion, with sustained depletion in bone marrow," with "durable platelet recovery, improved serology, and reduced disease activity through 6 months," and "only grade 1 and 2 adverse events without cytokine release syndrome." B cells that came back were mostly transitional and naive. doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2026.… 2. Patients. Three women aged 35, 46 and 48, with lupus, Sjogren's syndrome and antiphospholipid syndrome. This detail is from VCBeat, not the abstract. vcbeathealth.com/article/629… 3. Disclosure. Abogen developed ABO2203 and co-authored the paper. The drug is given under the skin in Abogen's separate lymphoma study; the route in this study isn't in the abstract. 4. The CAR-T comparison. In Germany, 15 patients with lupus, myositis or systemic sclerosis got CD19 CAR-T, and immunosuppressive therapy "was completely stopped in all the patients" (Muller et al., NEJM, 2024). doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa230891… The first lupus series was 5 patients (Mackensen et al., Nature Medicine, 2022). doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-0… 5. Why it matters. The approved protein version of this idea, blinatumomab, runs as a continuous IV infusion for 28 days per cycle and carries a boxed warning for cytokine release syndrome (FDA label). accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfd… 6. Limits. Three patients, open label, six months, and a different disease from the CAR-T series. 7. The industry bet. AbbVie agreed to buy Capstan Therapeutics for up to $2.1 billion (June 30, 2025). AstraZeneca bought EsoBiotec for up to $1 billion (March 17, 2025). Kite (Gilead) bought Interius for $350 million (August 21, 2025). All three are building in vivo CAR-T. prnewswire.com/news-releases… astrazeneca.com/media-centre… gilead.com/news/news-details… 8. The safety break. Novartis halted autoimmune trials of rapcabtagene autoleucel after three fatal cases of immune effector cell-associated hemophagocytic syndrome, and BMS paused zola-cel enrollment. This was reported by Fierce Biotech; I found no primary Novartis release. fiercebiotech.com/biotech/no… 9. Corrections in this version. No primary source confirms the patients' sex, so this version says "three patients." The side effects were grade 1 and 2, meaning mild to moderate. The route is under the skin, per Abogen's AACR 2026 release on the same drug.
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Stanford found 29,959 unknown forms of life in human mouths and guts. They are loops of RNA that replicate inside gut bacteria and encode a protein family found nowhere else in biology. About half of mouth samples contain them. The team named them obelisks because they had nothing else to call them. No one knows what they do. No disease is linked to them, which is the only reason you have not heard of them.
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Sources and notes: Zheludev et al., "Viroid-like colonists of human microbiomes," Cell, 30 October 2024, 187(23):6521-6536.e18. Andrew Fire's group at Stanford. 29,959 distinct obelisks identified from human metatranscriptome data. Present in roughly 50% of human oral metatranscriptomes examined (17 of 32) and roughly 7% of stool (29 of 440). They are circular RNA elements that replicate within gut bacteria, form their own phylogenetic group with no detectable sequence similarity to any known biological agent, and encode a novel protein superfamily the authors named Oblin. The authors report that they appear dispensable for host bacterial growth. No disease association has been established, and none is claimed here. doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2024.…
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A negative cancer blood test does not mean you are cancer-free. The company behind the $949 @GrailBio test says a negative result “does not rule out cancer,” and its largest trial missed most cancers diagnosed within a year. The test looks for bits of DNA tumors shed into the blood. In England, 142,000 people aged 50 to 77 were split so half were offered it yearly for three years. A positive result was cancer about half the time. The rest had hospital checks that found no cancer at the time. The trials were built for people 50 and over, so nobody knows how well it works at 30 or 40. Most cancers it found were types with no routine screening, and more were caught early. But the trial missed its main goal, fewer people being diagnosed late, and nobody knows yet if it saves lives. @FDA advisers vote today on whether to approve it for adults 50 and older, alongside mammograms and colonoscopies.
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Sources and notes: 1. What a negative result means. GRAIL's patient page says a "No Cancer Signal Detected" result "does not rule out cancer" and that the test "should be used in addition to routine cancer screening tests." galleri.com/patient/the-gall… In the trial, the test caught 37% of the cancers diagnosed within 12 months of the first blood draw, and 27% in each of the next two rounds (all cancers). For the 12 cancers that cause most cancer deaths, it caught 48% to 63%. About 99% of negative results were correct, because most people tested don't have cancer. The problem is the cancers it doesn't see. Test performance paper, Nature Medicine: doi.org/10.1038/s41591-026-0… 2. The trial. NHS-Galleri, New England Journal of Medicine, Sept 22, 2026. 142,250 people aged 50 to 77 in England were randomly split. Half had their blood tested at up to three yearly visits. The other half had their blood stored and not tested. GRAIL funded the trial; Queen Mary University of London analyzed the data independently. doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa250572… clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT… 3. What a positive result means. 1,801 people had a positive result, and 937 of them (52%) were diagnosed with cancer (58%, 50% and 46% in rounds one, two and three). A positive result led to an NHS urgent cancer referral, with tests chosen by the organ the result pointed to. The test's top guess at the organ was right for 87% of the cancers found. Of the first-round positives where no cancer was found at the time, 18% (54 of 303) were diagnosed with cancer in a later round. 4. Age. NHS-Galleri enrolled people aged 50 to 77. PATHFINDER 2, the large US study, enrolled people 50 and over. GRAIL recommends the test for "adults with an elevated risk for cancer, such as those age 50 or older" and advises against it for people 21 or younger. No trial has tested it in people in their 20s, 30s or 40s. Within the trial, the share of positives that turned out to be cancer was similar from the 50s to the 70s. clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT… 5. Where it helps. 72.8% of the cancers the test found were not breast, cervical or bowel cancer, the cancers England screens everyone for (58.7% with lung excluded too). Compared with the untested group, the tested group had: - more cancers found at stage I or II (647 vs 559) - 21% fewer diagnosed as an emergency (225 vs 286) - fewer stage IV cancers (341 vs 394). This is a rate ratio of 0.86 (95% CI 0.74 to 1.00), a secondary result the trial's plan didn't allow it to test formally. 6. The main goal. Fewer stage III or IV cancers among 12 cancer types that cause more than 60% of cancer deaths. The designers projected about 20% fewer. The result was 706 people in the tested group vs 688 in the untested group (rate ratio 1.03, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.14, P=0.63). Stage IV fell, but stage III rose (360 vs 287). 7. Deaths. The trial wasn't designed to measure deaths. Cancer deaths will be analyzed 3 and 6 years after the final trial visit. The closest precedent is the UKCTOCS ovarian screening trial of 202,562 women: it cut stage IV ovarian cancer by 24.5% and didn't reduce ovarian cancer deaths after 16 years. doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(2… 8. FDA and price. The FDA's Molecular and Clinical Genetics Panel reviews Galleri on Sept 23, 2026, and GRAIL is seeking approval for adults 50 and over. The panel advises; the FDA decides. The US list price is $949. fda.gov/advisory-committees/… galleri.com/cost
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People love to treat body temperature like it’s just one number. This study says the shape matters way more. In 114 brain-injured ICU patients, being hot or cold by itself didn’t predict anything. What did? Whether the temperature kept its normal 24-hour rise-and-fall cycle. Losing that rhythm, the odds of death were 21x higher (p=0.016).
Daily Rhythm in Brain Temperature is a sign of Resilient Brain. In ICU patients monitored for brain injury, those who lost their daily brain temperature rhythm had 21-fold higher odds of death (P=0.016). Absolute temperature extremes didn't predict outcome — the rhythm did. Rhythmicity may be a marker of intact brain physiology. academic.oup.com/brain/artic…
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What if you could stay sharp on less sleep without paying for it later? That is the promise of a new class of wakefulness drugs. Old stimulants make you push harder. Adderall and Ritalin sit in the same legal tier as oxycodone, and modafinil still carries a rare skin-reaction warning. Orexin drugs work differently. Your brain stays awake on a signal called orexin. Narcolepsy happens when the cells that make it die. Oveporexton gives that signal back, and the FDA approved it in August. The early head-to-head data looks promising. In sleep-deprived men, oveporexton and modafinil both held up for four hours. By hour eight, modafinil had faded to 20 minutes on a 40-minute test, while the orexin drug held at 37. It is not free. The approved pill gives most patients insomnia and makes them pee more. But it restores a missing signal instead of whipping what is left. And the pipeline is growing. Other orexin pills are now in trials for ADHD, idiopathic hypersomnia, and the fatigue of Parkinson's.
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Sources and notes. Every number links to a primary record. 1. The head-to-head. IV danavorexton (TAK-925, an orexin-2 receptor agonist) vs modafinil 300 mg vs placebo, four-way crossover in sleep-deprived healthy men, 40-minute Maintenance of Wakefulness Test. Least-squares mean minutes awake, modafinil then orexin 112 mg: 2 h 35.6 vs 40.0; 4 h 35.6 vs 40.1; 6 h 31.9 vs 38.4; 8 h 20.4 vs 36.9. Registry results: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT… Paper: Evans et al, Journal of Sleep Research 2023, doi.org/10.1111/jsr.13878 2. Oveporexton (Orzeyful, Takeda), the first orexin-2 receptor agonist, FDA-approved Aug 5 2026 for narcolepsy type 1: fda.gov/news-events/press-an… Phase 3 (273 patients): MWT +14.3 to +19.8 min vs -0.4 to -0.8 on placebo. NEJM, Sep 9 2026, doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa260159… 3. Side effects, from the approved label: insomnia 60% and increased urinary frequency 58% (2 mg twice daily) vs 1% and 5% on placebo. The label also states abuse potential; DEA scheduling is pending. Label: content.takeda.com/?contentt… 4. Modafinil carries an FDA-label warning for serious rash including Stevens-Johnson syndrome. Adderall (amphetamine) and Ritalin (methylphenidate) are DEA Schedule II, the same schedule as oxycodone: dailymed.nlm.nih.gov/dailyme… 5. The pipeline beyond narcolepsy. ADHD: ALKS 7290 (Alkermes), Phase 2 NCT07755410, recruiting. Idiopathic hypersomnia: alixorexton/ALKS 2680 (Alkermes), Phase 2 NCT06843590, recruiting. Fatigue in Parkinson's and MS: ALKS 4510 (Alkermes), Phase 1, alkermes.com/research-and-de… Note: the head-to-head used an intravenous drug that clears fast, so an hour after the drip stopped the orexin men fell asleep in under 2.5 minutes while modafinil still held them at 21. The oral pills have not been tested head-to-head against modafinil. No orexin agonist is proven safe for healthy people to sleep less. Hat tip @therealRYC for flagging the phase 3 gap against modafinil.
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Correction on the head-to-head: the 37 vs 20 at hour eight was for danavorexton, given IV at its top 112 mg dose in sleep-deprived healthy men. Oveporexton, the approved pill, has not been run against modafinil that way. My source’s reply has it right; the post does not.
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Tumor cells are literally handing their mitochondria to the T cells meant to kill them. The T cells can't digest them, so the cancer's mitochondria take over, the T cells go senescent, and killing stops. Researchers spotted it because the T cells carried mitochondrial DNA mutations identical to those of the tumor. Patients whose tumors had those mutations did worse on immunotherapy.
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Sources and notes: Ikeda et al., "Immune evasion through mitochondrial transfer in the tumour microenvironment," Nature, 22 January 2025, from Togashi's group at Chiba Cancer Center. Open access. Tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes were found carrying mitochondrial DNA mutations identical to those in the patient's cancer cells, which is how the transfer was detected in the first place. The transferred mitochondria resist the recipient cell's mitophagy, partly because inhibitory molecules including USP30 travel with them, and then undergo homoplasmic replacement, meaning they displace the T cell's own mitochondrial population completely rather than mixing with it. The recipient T cells become senescent and functionally impaired. In melanoma and non-small-cell lung cancer, tumour mtDNA mutation was associated with worse response to checkpoint inhibitors. That association is correlative. Human specimens plus mouse and in vitro work. doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-0…
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A woman with type 1 diabetes stopped needing insulin 75 days after a transplant, and a year later, she still does not. Type 1 diabetes happens because the immune system destroys the islet cells in the pancreas that make insulin. Transplanting islets from a dead donor has worked since 2000, but donors are scarce and the recipient has to take immunosuppressants for life. The obvious fix is to grow islets from the patient's own cells. The obvious problem is that the standard method uses Yamanaka factors, delivered by a virus, including one that is a cancer gene. This team skipped all of that. They reprogrammed her own cells back into stem cells with small molecules alone, with no virus and no Yamanaka factors, and then turned them into islets. The surgeon placed them under the sheath of muscle in her abdomen instead of in the liver, where islets usually go, because a graft you can see on a scan is a graft you can cut out if it misbehaves. Her time in the healthy glucose range went from 43% to over 98%. One patient, published in @CellCellPress. She was already on immunosuppressants for a previous liver transplant, so this does not yet tell us whether autologous islets can escape the autoimmune attack that caused the disease in the first place. This is an impressive proof of concept, but the real test is whether it works in patients who are not already immunosuppressed.
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Sources and notes: Wang et al., "Transplantation of chemically induced pluripotent stem-cell-derived islets under abdominal anterior rectus sheath in a type 1 diabetes patient," Cell, 25 September 2024. Trial ChiCTR2300072200, Deng Hongkui's group. One patient. Her own cells were reprogrammed to pluripotency using small molecules only, with no Yamanaka transcription factors and no viral vector, then differentiated into islets and transplanted under the abdominal anterior rectus sheath rather than into the hepatic portal vein. The site choice matters: it is imageable and the graft is retrievable. Time in target glycaemic range rose from 43.18% at baseline to 96.21% by month 4, then stayed above 98%. Insulin independence from day 75, HbA1c around 5% at one year, no transplant-related abnormalities reported. This is a first-in-human phase 1 in a single person. It doesn't establish safety or efficacy in anyone else. doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2024.…
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