This is huge and confirms the estimated mortality that we expected for natural deaths. Per the Palestinian Ministry of Health reports through 2025, there were 25,534 reported deaths.
We were told that these were only violent deaths. We now know that violent deaths were 18,870 of the deaths (17,286 were from war operations), and we know that 5,780 were natural deaths.
We can now confirm that the death toll from the last three years contains natural deaths.
There are other questions about those from disease that could have happened because of the war. However, this sustains the study done by
@Mr_Andrew_Fox,
@MarkZlochin,
@Aizenberg55, and myself that was published in December 2024.
We can also confirm a population growth in 2025 of ~25,000. If Israel’s goal was the destruction of the Palestinian population in Gaza, its actions don’t support that inference, nor does the data support it.
Outside of the arguments we’ve heard, this is incredibly important as it demonstrates that Palestinian life is not under threat of destruction. And that’s a very good thing no matter what position you take.
Gaza Ministry of Health has now released mortality numbers for 2025. For the first time since the war, they give numbers for all deaths, including natural deaths.
In 2025 there were a total of 24,650 deaths in Gaza. 18,870 (76.6%) of these were violent, of which 17,286 (70.1%) were due to "war operations" and 1,584 (6.4%) were classified as accidents. There were a total of 5,780 (23.4%) non-violent deaths, including disease, old age, and all other causes.
5,780 deaths is about the same as the annual non-violent mortality in Gaza before the war, and the age distribution is similar to 2022. There is no significant excess of non-violent deaths.
In other words, despite frequent and loud claims to the contrary, there seems to be very few indirect deaths due to the war in Gaza in 2025.
As there were 50,227 births in 2025, this gives a natural population growth of 25,577 or 1.2% in Gaza in 2025, which is higher population growth than most countries in the world and more than the world average.
There are currently ~6,000 births/month in Gaza, per GMH. Assuming a similar number of non-violent deaths in Gaza in 2026 as in 2025, that means there are currently 12x more births than deaths in Gaza, and that Gaza is now experiencing one of the highest population growths in the world.