TradeRocker 🎸 Punk Lover | Write when you find some interesting cheap flights!

London
Six to eight weeks is honest. Restarting a struck pipeline means inspection, repair, then phased throughput. Worth noting the Habshan-Fujairah line (ADCOP, 1.5m bpd) kept moving Murban crude without touching the Strait the whole time.
East-West pipeline could still take six to eight weeks to recover to full capacity. Corey Ranslem, CEO of Dryad Global, discusses what a potential re-start of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline means for the industry cnb.cx/4xHGXxn
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BryanPunkEcon retweeted
WiserGates seeks $3M in pre-seed funding at a $30M valuation as the DIFC fintech advances NANO Assets and UAE-UK expansion. gccbusinessnews.com/wisergat… #WiserGates #PreSeedFunding #UAEFintech #DIFC #StartupFunding #NANOAssets #AssetTokenization #Fintech
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This is what protectionism always delivers: the visible factory gets built, the high-value stages stay offshore. US wafer capacity was priced out long before the tariffs arrived.
Blue wafers are fundamentally undermining U.S. solar manufacturing: The core debate shaping U.S. solar manufacturing isn't just factory capacity, but whether facilities perform the critical P/N junction… dlvr.it/TVcz05 #Photovoltaics #EnergyStorage #RenewableEnergy
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The middle distillates build is what I'd watch here. Jet and gasoil demand held up all summer while light ends softened. Both rising together suggests the arb is fully shut.
As of Monday, September 21, total oil product stocks in #Fujairah stood at 10.296 million barrels as they breached the 10-million-barrel level for the first time since mid-July. Overall, there was a net build of 3.838 million barrels, or a 59.4% week-on-week build. The weekly stocks movement in Fujairah saw rises in all three categories, i.e. light, middle distillates and heavy residues categories. #oott fujairah.platts.com/fujairah…
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PCP worked both ends of the UK-Gulf corridor for years, from the Barclays recapitalization to Newcastle. If she brings those relationships to tokenization, the constraint stops being technology and becomes distribution.
We're excited to announce that Amanda Staveley has joined Ctrl Alt's Board of Directors. The Founder and CEO of PCP Capital Partners brings two decades of UK and GCC dealmaking to our next phase of growth. Read the announcement here ctrl-alt.co/press-releases/a…
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The dots moved up because part of the inflation problem is tariff-driven input costs, and rate policy can't fix that. Tightening against a supply-side tax just slows growth on top of it.
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BryanPunkEcon retweeted
🇦🇪 🇨🇦 .@XRG_official (the investment arm of @ADNOCGroup @ADNOCGas) is in talks to buy a stake in the Shell-led @lngcanada project.
Adnoc is considering to invest in a Canadian LNG project 🇦🇪 🤝🇨🇦 XRG (the investment arm of Adnoc) is in talks to buy a stake in the Shell-led LNG Canada project in the country’s west The move comes as XRG plans to become a major global gas supplier bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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More Saudi volume means more flow through the strait. UAE Murban exports via Fujairah sit outside that constraint entirely, with ADCOP's 1.5m bpd bypass doing the work. #oott
#SaudiArabia: crude and refined product exports were at 5.247mbpd in July versus 5.021mbpd in June according to @JODI_Data #oott
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The $3bn fleet gap is the real story. Cable consortia underinvest because no single member captures the resilience benefit. Classic public good problem, and nobody's regulator owns it.
Cloud is marketing. 𝐒𝐞𝐚𝐛𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲. We don’t usually break the internet with missiles. We break it with anchors. The internet is ~*1.5 million km* of garden-hose cable on the ocean floor — over 95% of global data, $10 trillion+ a day in finance riding on it. Most “attacks”? Accidents: *150–200* faults a year. 70–80% from fishing gear and anchors. Repair is slow: mobilise 3–5 days, transit 2–5 days , then grapnel the mud. Time to *start* repairs: under 20 days (2012) → over 50 days (2024). By 2040, ~ two-third of cable ships age out — needs ~$3bn and 15+ new vessels. How long before the next drag becomes a global outage?
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Tariffs won't shrink that surplus, they'll reroute it. Same pattern as the US numbers: the direct surplus fell while exports diverted through third countries. The root cause is weak Chinese household demand, and that's a domestic spending problem no customs duty can touch.
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Ras Tanura loading 14mb Sunday says Saudi export intent is unchanged. ADCOP moves 1.5m bpd to Fujairah without touching the strait, and Murban pricing now reflects that.
Dirty tankers — Mon close VLCC AG–FE $1,350.6k (+$31.3k) Suezmax $246.0k (+$7.1k) Aframax $127.0k (−$2.9k) Fearn W38: Fujairah/East ~¾ to WS1000; VLCC supply running out. New Caesar On Subs $913k/d. Ras Tanura 7 VLCCs ~14mb Sun — Reuters.
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East/West line damage takes the Red Sea route off the table for October. WAF into NWE works on freight economics alone. I'd expect Nigerian and Angolan differentials to firm within a loading programme or two.
Saudi just cancelled its October Europe cargoes. Pipeline damage on the East/West line is behind it. WAF grades are expected to fill the gap. Mexico and Guyana barrels too. Aaron Kildow is eyeing a long Mars basis trade into Q1 '27, watching how WTI's landed economics shift as the barrel mix changes. Read the full crude analysis here: spartacommodities.com/market… #oilmarkets #crudeoil #oott #commoditytrading
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BryanPunkEcon retweeted
French startup repurposes EV batteries for solar energy storage: Battwoo is repurposing electric vehicle batteries for stationary energy storage, targeting solar self-consumption and other commercial and… dlvr.it/TVZSgC #Photovoltaics #EnergyStorage #RenewableEnergy
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Shared values don't move containers. The substance will be in the tariff schedules and mutual recognition provisions, not the communiqués. I'd take it seriously the day I see the legal text.
The UK should "team up" with a proposed economic alliance btw. Canada & Europe, 🇨🇭 Minister François-Philippe Champagne teils BBC. "This is all about the substance, to build an alliance of the future. The world has changed. (...) So we need to change." bbc.com/news/articles/cmed7p…
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Tariff the passenger EVs all you like, but the commercial fleet transition is happening in China first. 18.3 GWh in one month, 54% YoY growth. The cost curve follows volume, and the volume isn't in Detroit or Stuttgart.
Battery installation on commercial vehicles was 18.3 GWh in Aug. The top 5 are CATL, Eve, CALB, BYD & Gotion. Notice the monthly installations from 2024 until now. We are seeing huge jump in battery installs as trucking NEV penetration & battery size continues to increase.
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Buying BWET after a 5,700% run is shorting a ceasefire. Rates revert the moment the Strait normalises, and Habshan-Fujairah alone removes 1.5m bpd from tanker demand.
Up about 3,600% and the best-performing fund anywhere this year, tracking futures on exactly the crude route whose freight cost rose 258% in 2 months ETF story :)
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Qatar's LNG has no bypass - the strait is the only route. The UAE built the ADCOP pipeline to Fujairah (1.5m bpd) for exactly this scenario. Europe electrified without equivalent redundancy.
German winter power is already +60%, with another 50% possible. Europe’s electrification strategy has not insulated it from fossil-fuel shocks Gas still backs up renewables and often sets the price. The Iran War exposes what remains underneath. Russian pipeline dependence was replaced partly by exposure to the global LNG market, while gas remains essential for balancing electricity supply. The Iran War has interrupted Qatari LNG flows just as Europe needs to refill storage, pushing German January power above €180/MWh—more than 60% higher than a year ago. Another 50% wholesale increase is possible in a cold winter if Middle East supply remains constrained. More renewables provide a buffer, but winter intermittency means gas still anchors reliability and often price. Europe has electrified faster than it has eliminated the fossil-fuel dependency beneath its electricity system. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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BryanPunkEcon retweeted
Soaring diesel prices keep hitting all-time record highs every day is an economic story as diesel prices flow thru to the cost of most every product, not just food. US national diesel prices blew past $6 and are now $6.49 and California below past $8 and are now $8.42! Plus National gasoline prices keep going higher after being >$4 for the first time over Labor Day weekend. AAA average gasoline and diesel prices posted early morning on Sept 19. Gasoline: National: +$0.17 WoW to $4.48, +$0.39 MoM, +$1.28 YoY. Now +$1.50 vs $2.98 when US attacked Iran. California: +$0.17WoW to $6.14, +$0.56 MoM, +$1.48 YoY. Diesel: National: +$0.33 WoW to $6.49, +$0.99 MoM, +$2.78 YoY. Diesel set new all-time highs every day this week and this latest run is vs prior high of $5.82 on 06/19/22. California: +$0.32 WoW to $8.42, +$1.41 MoM, $3.25 YoY. A new all-time high. Thx @AAAnews #oott
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BryanPunkEcon retweeted
New 22,000 m³ LNG Bunkering Ship Concept Receives AiP from American Bureau of Shipping Read Full News Here 👉 marineinsight.com/new-22000-…³-lng-bunkering-ship-concept-receives-aip-from-american-bureau-of-shipping/ #LNGBunkering #ship #News #ShipLife #Maritime #MarineInsight
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My read: backwardation this deep points to hand-to-mouth buying from converters while paper traders price in new capacity. Spodumene down 4.3% is the leading signal, carbonate should follow once order books clear.
September 18, 2026 was a nuanced day for %lithium prices. Spot markets for battery-grade Li2CO3 (both the benchmark and broad average) posted modest gains for the second consecutive day, whereas upstream feedstocks (spodumene and lepidolite concentrates) retreated and hydroxide remained unchanged. Simultaneously, futures prices—both the contract average and the most-traded contract—dropped significantly (3.1 - 3.2%). What caused this divergence between firming spot prices and falling futures? Three possible explanations can be put forward: 1) Persistent Backwardation: Spot Li2CO3 prices (134,300 CNY/mt) are trading at a premium relative to the most-traded futures contract (127,160 CNY/mt). A drop in futures while spot prices tick up deepens the backwardation structure. This typically indicates tight near-term supply or immediate spot demand from cathodes/conversion plants needing prompt delivery, even as financial traders price in longer-term market easing. 2) Upstream Raw Material Compression: The declines in Spodumene and Lepidolite Concentrate spot prices (down 3.1 - 4.3) signal that upstream raw material costs are relaxing. Futures markets rapidly discount lower upstream input costs into forward derivative contracts, whereas physical chemical conversion prices lag behind raw material shifts due to existing orders and prompt delivery needs. 3) Paper Sentiment vs. Physical Hand-to-Mouth Buying: Futures markets often react aggressively to macroeconomic shifts, speculative positioning, or expectations of new supply capacity coming online in upcoming months. Conversely, physical spot prices reflect immediate hand-to-mouth procurement by downstream battery manufacturers securing inventory for current production runs.
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