ref. proliferation of robotaxis, waymos and zooxes; can be done wisely - eg V2V comms, routing and dispatch, infra designed for AVs along fewer personal cars to crowd streets. think how you never see a waymo parked, just occupying space.
Imagine Uber could supply as many cars as people wanted and charge 70% less for every ride. Would you expect traffic in a typical American city to improve? I would expect it to get worse as trips greatly increase. That is why I suspect robotaxis will increase congestion, even after the transition to autonomous driving is complete.
People would make journeys they currently skip. Someone who stays home because they don’t want to drink and drive would go out. Parents could send a car to collect their children. Older people who no longer drive could afford to travel more often in Cybercabs. Making transportation cheaper and easier would create additional demand, not simply replace existing car trips.
Then there is Musk’s proposal for owners to earn money by putting their cars into Tesla’s shared fleet, effectively an Airbnb for cars. I expect some people would buy vehicles specifically to rent them out, expanding the supply of rides.
My bet is that robotaxis will give us more mobility but more congestion. I welcome the freedom they offer, particularly to people who cannot drive but unless they are shared or have a congestion charge traffic in NYC, LA, Miami will get worse.