The dilemma: If the Fed hikes it will worsen the interest expense problem (since so much borrowing is at the short end). If the Fed cuts it will worsen the inflation problem.

Someone asked if I was ready for the fall and it took me a second to realize they meant autumn and not the total collapse of society.

Adults who put children first are incredibly cool.

Most Americans believe influencers like the Paul brothers gained fame through the internet, leading to their connection to powerful people. In actuality, the Logans and Tates of the world are created by powerful people to influence young men. Not the other way around.

⚡That’s why no one will remember your name. Everyone wants the move after the fear is gone. The edge was moving while the fear was still real.

- You: "My stocks went up 10%." - Government: "Congratulations! That's taxable." - You: "But inflation was 8%. I only really gained 2%." - Government: "We tax the full 10%." - You: "You tax the inflation you created?" - Government: "Capital gains are capital gains." - You: "So you profit from debasing my money twice?" - Government: "You're not an economist."

Good evening. Remember, it’s not a debasement “trade”, it’s a debasement regime. Have a great night.

The Road to the Big Print (and an ode to @LawrenceLepard) There once was a Fed in a bind, with forty-odd trillion behind. They hiked and they swore, till the bond market roared — then printed, as Larry divined. Sitting on my bookshelf, is the book Larry wrote on how this ends. This roadmap is my attempt at translating his thesis, expressed as a checklist. The milestones won't land in exact order and the timeline will surely bend, but I find it useful to track a general guideline, so nothing comes as a surprise. Thought to share it here in case others find it useful, and I’ll post updates as things progress. Of course this could all be wrong and we teleport to $500K BTC. Already happened: ☑ First Fed hike in 3 years — 25bp to 3.75–4.00%, with 16 of 18 officials projecting more ☑ 10-year at 5%, highest since 2007 — driven by debt supply, not inflation expectations ☑ Treasury buybacks deployed to manage the long end ☑ Gold ran to a $5,600 ATH on the fiscal math, corrected 23% when the Fed turned hawkish — central banks buying the entire dip ☑ Bitcoin's correction bottomed at $57.5K, down 55% from the $126.5K high. The September retest held $75K on the most hawkish Fed outcome available — a higher low, made on bad news, and it rallied off the announcement Phase 1 — The Squeeze (now → December): ☐ BTC relief rally through $83K resistance ☐ BTC reaches the $84–92K zone (the levels: 83.9K, 86.7K, 92K), marking the first higher high since bear market ☐ Fed hikes a second time (October or December — the dots demand it) ☐ 10-year breaks above 5.25% ☐ BTC corrects to the $70–76K region on the second hike. Buyable. ☐ Consumer credit keeps deteriorating: card delinquencies and auto defaults pushing toward GFC-era levels Between the phases: expect a 72–88K range lasting one to three months that convinces everyone bitcoin lost to gold. Rallies fade below the prior high, volume dries up, the feed is filled with "dead money." That boredom is the setup. Phase 2 — The Strain (Q1–Q2 2027): ☐ A Treasury auction tails badly; bond volatility (MOVE) spikes ☐ 30-year through 5.5% (possibly to 6.0%) — the "invoice," as Druckenmiller calls it, arrives ☐ Equities enter a proper bear; something in credit breaks publicly ☐ QT formally ends; first "temporary market-functioning" facility launched ☐ The hiking cycle is abandoned ☐ BTC's last great dip: violent, into $65–75K, with the deep tail at the $62K base that held all summer. Gold turns up first Phase 3 — The Big Print (H2 2027): ☐ First rate cut, framed as victory over inflation ☐ The Fed's balance sheet expands again under any name but QE ☐ Yield-curve control in function if not in name ☐ Gold reclaims $5,600 ☐ BTC breaks its all-time high ($126.5K) ☐ BTC $150–180K — the first leg of the print Phase 4 — The Repricing (beyond this roadmap, into 2028): Once monetization is standing policy rather than emergency response, bitcoin stops trading as a risk asset and reprices as a reserve asset — against a gold market the same policy is inflating toward $7–8K. Fifteen percent of that gold market is $300–550K per coin. The gauge that arbitrates everything is the BTC/gold ratio. A government rolling $40 trillion of debt at 5% has two options: default or debase. Position for the choice they always make. They'll hike, and they'll posture, and squint — then do what they do: the Big Print. bitcoin:native $MSTR

After losing 20 lbs on retatrutide, I regained 100% of it and more in 8 months. Not in the way you think. I came back leaner and eating 1000+ more calories than when I started. Here's the mechanism that decides whether it's muscle or fat, and the 3 things that get you out.

- You: “Is inflation bad?” - Government: “Very bad. We fight it every day.” - You: “So the goal is 0%?” - Government: “No, the goal is 2%.” - You: “So the goal is… inflation?” - Government: “The goal is stable inflation.” - You: “Stable loss of my money?” - Government: “You’re not an economist.”

Why Diamond Prices Have Collapsed To Their Lowest Levels This Century The collapse in natural diamond prices is not simply another luxury downturn. The deeper problem is structural. Lab grown diamonds have weakened the scarcity premium that supported mainstream natural diamond prices for generations, while China’s slowdown, excess inventories, high financing costs and changing consumer preferences have intensified the pressure. Lab Grown Diamonds Changed The Economics This is the most important force. Consumers still want engagement rings and diamonds. What changed is how much they are willing to pay simply because a stone came from the ground. Lab grown diamonds offer nearly identical physical and optical characteristics at a fraction of the price. As production scaled in China and India, prices collapsed while quality improved. Consumers can now spend dramatically more for natural origin or buy a larger comparable stone and keep thousands of dollars. Natural diamonds remain geologically scarce, but economic scarcity depends on substitutes. Lab production effectively created another supply curve that mining companies cannot control. China Removed A Major Buyer China became one of the most important marginal buyers of diamonds and luxury goods. Then the property downturn damaged household confidence, wealth expectations and discretionary spending. Diamond demand weakened while consumers increasingly favored cash, gold and other assets with clearer liquidity. That hit an industry already carrying too much inventory from the pandemic boom. The Pandemic Created an Inventory Hangover During 2020 through 2022, stimulus, limited travel and recovering weddings pushed spending toward jewellery and luxury goods. Diamond prices surged and the industry treated too much of that demand as permanent. Then travel returned, inflation squeezed consumers and lab grown adoption accelerated. Demand normalized while inventories remained. Dealers bought less. Polishers reduced rough purchases. Wholesalers discounted stock. Miners cut prices and production. Falling prices then reduced the value of inventory already sitting on balance sheets, making buyers even more cautious. High Rates Made It Worse Diamonds are expensive inventory that generates no yield. When rates were near zero, holding millions of dollars of stones was relatively inexpensive. At higher rates, working capital becomes more expensive while the collateral itself is losing value. That forces dealers to demand larger discounts and makes lenders more cautious about financing the trade. The Store of Value Story Is Breaking Ordinary diamonds were often marketed as heirlooms and stores of value. But they have never had gold like liquidity. Each stone differs by size, color, clarity and cut. Retail markups are large, resale markets are fragmented and consumers often discover that secondary market value is far below the original purchase price. Falling prices make that weakness impossible to ignore. Lab grown diamonds reinforce the shift by separating the beauty of a diamond from the belief that beauty must also represent financial scarcity. My Take The old price floor has broken even while producers cut output and Russian supply remains constrained. That suggests the dominant problem is not simply excessive mining. It is a changed demand curve. Exceptional large natural stones may retain genuine scarcity value. Ordinary commercial natural diamonds increasingly compete against an industrially scalable substitute. Consumers have not stopped wanting jewellery or diamonds. They have stopped automatically accepting the historic premium attached to the word natural.

A can of PAM olive oil spray says 0 calories and 0 grams of fat. The ingredients are extra virgin olive oil, soy lecithin and dimethyl silicone. It's a can of oil. The serving size is a quarter second spray, or 0.25 grams. Under FDA rules anything under 5 calories a serving can say 0, and anything under half a gram of fat can say 0 grams. A quarter gram of olive oil comes in under both. The can says about 665 servings. Nobody sprays for a quarter second. Count how long you hold the button down next time you grease a pan. 2 seconds is 8 servings. There's an asterisk next to the olive oil in the ingredient list. It says adds a trivial amount of fat.

Google searches for Bitcoin are still very low. Normies are still asleep.

Your quant might wreck you Bitcoin doesn't care about anything other than supply and demand The tourists saw $40K on the charts True Bitcoiners saw the wall of institutional money

People think we just “got lucky” with Bitcoin. It will gradually break their brains as they watch us continue “getting lucky” over the decades to come.