I listened to your recent podcast on this and you mentioned bank lending being what could invalidate the thesis. But my main thought listening to it is that the thesis depends on the war not resolving and seemingly on the Fed kind of getting jerked around by energy prices and making a policy mistake. I feel like those are the much bigger potential problems with the thesis?

yeah so if energy + rates are enough to significantly slow lending in ex-AI sectors, or AI financing slows for a number of reasons, overall bank lending falls. which is my thought. but if either policy is not that restrictive or AI continues at breakneck pace, credit creation should remain robust and markets continue chugging