I write macroeconomic and strategy assessments for the institutional investment community. My posts here are things that I find interesting, thoughtful, or merely just entertaining. Although some of my posts may reflect strongly-held views on the investment landscape, that doesn't mean those views won't change as facts change and it certainly doesn't mean those things are right for YOU! Proper investment advice involves a deep understanding of your goals, needs, and risk-tolerances. Nobody should consider anything here investment advice, but rather, merely informative. I'd probably offer the same level of caution about getting medical advice here too, by the way. Have a health issue? See a doctor. Want to devise a financial plan? Well, see a financial advisor. Twitter ain't going to cure you in either instance.

Pretty standard stuff at the Jersey Shore. Sometimes you see this after a normal rain storm. Wake me when there are swells and white caps going down Long Beach Blvd. PS - Baker’s Port Hole is still open and serving drinks despite this

Hmm.

Fannie Mae reported decline in multi family delinquencies. Single family ticked up tiny but still very low level. In other news, Already did my Costco run ahead of this storm. Concur with the below …

And the denial: SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIAL SAYS HORMUZ WILL REMAIN CLOSED, NO NUCLEAR TALKS WITH US UNTIL IRAN'S CONDITIONS ARE MET: RTRS

Atlanta Fed GDPNow holding at 5.0%. This is why rates are rising. atlantafed.org/research-and-…

The rise in interest rates could literally be explained this easily...

HOUTHIS PLEDGE NOT TO TARGET EUROPEAN OR U.S. SHIPS Iran-backed Houthis have told the EU they will not target European ships in the Red Sea, according to the FT. The group said its operations near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait are not intended to disrupt international shipping. The Houthis have reportedly given similar assurances to the U.S. and appear increasingly focused on Saudi Arabian interests.

BREAKING: The US Navy has completely withdrawn its warships from the blockade line around Iran after Iran’s first operational use of the advanced Qasem Basir “carrier killer” anti-ship ballistic missile, with satellite imagery showing no US carriers or destroyers in the Gulf of Oman or Arabian Sea since early September, per open-source intelligence and Sentinel-2 data. The Qasem Basir has a declared range of roughly 1,200 kilometers — enough to cover nearly the entire Gulf of Oman and the US fleet’s previous positions — and is reportedly equipped with electro-optical and thermal imaging seekers designed to track naval targets. SNSC Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said the missile “created hell for the Americans,” while CENTCOM acknowledged US vessels came under attack by hostile missiles but said they were defeated without damage. Satellite imagery shows the USS George Washington, USS George H.W. Bush, USS Tripoli and Arleigh Burke-class destroyers are no longer visible in the designated blockade zone, with the line reportedly pushed beyond the missile’s range. The USS Gerald R. Ford has also left the Middle East after a ten-month deployment, leaving the US with two carriers in the region as CENTCOM prepares “short and strong” strike options against Iran. The blockade remains in place on paper, but the warships enforcing it have reportedly moved beyond the range of Iran’s anti-ship missiles.

Moody’s warns investors that hyperscalers are no longer a “fortress of security” and face significant risks with $3 trillion of hidden debt that will start hitting balance sheets over the next 2 years that isn’t nearly covered by customer commitments, and warns nearly all of those commitments are likely among each-other purely anticipating future demand. Woes, did Burry just infiltrate Moody’s? 😳 $ORCL $META $GOOG $AMZN

The Reuters report is false and its goal is to control the price of oil. no negotiations are underway. #Iran's position remains unchanged: the U.S. must fulfill the stipulated conditions in a single step so that the Strait of #Hormuz can be opened under Iranian control. Period.

We can’t send you any of those magnets you need but how about some cuddly pandas ????

lol.

lol

Let’s talk about Oracle: Oracle’s credit selloff is increasingly becoming a fundamental financing story. 124.5bn of fixed-rate debt carries 6.1bn of annual coupons, but repricing the stack at today’s curve implies 9.0bn nearly 3bn higher. More realistically, if current funding costs persist, refinancing 2027–36 maturities could add 1.1bn to annual interest expense, compress net margin 130bp to 25.3% and reduce EBITDA/interest coverage from 6.8x to 5.7x. With elevated capex, negative FCF and Oracle’s curve now 100bp wide of BBB on a maturity-weighted basis, the risk is a feedback loop: weaker FCF, greater financing needs, higher interest expense, weaker coverage and profitability.

BREAKING: Yemen's Houthis announce they struck Saudi Aramco oil facilities at Yanbu and a sensitive site in Riyadh with ballistic and cruise missiles and drones. The Yanbu strike comes within hours of Macron announcing France will deploy soldiers, radars and air defence systems to protect that exact facility, and days after the UK promised limited military support to Saudi Arabia.

In a major move, France will deploy soldiers and air defense systems to Saudi Arabia to help protect Yanbu’s critical oil-export facilities from Houthi attacks -French President Macron Macron did not rule out an additional French Air Force fighter deployment as well.

What does voting to “call an end to the Iran war” even mean? No war was ever declared, and nobody is shooting at anyone at present. So what are we declaring and what does it accomplish? Yet another day wasted in Congress.

SOME 60 COMMERCIAL VESSELS TRANSITED THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ ON WEDNESDAY CARRYING THE HIGHEST DAILY VOLUME OF CRUDE SINCE EARLY JULY, US DEFENSE OFFICIAL TELLS REUTERS

So cool he provides a transcript of his videos now