"Stock Analysts" by @ishmam
People who analyze stocks and share insights.
I always invest with the intention of holding forever.
I actually hold until:
1) The thesis is busted
2) I want to use the capital for something else
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Quantum Momentum
Quantum startup funding rose 6.3x last year, Washington is taking equity stakes, Google's Quantum Echoes advantage claim still stands and AI is a tailwind.
Our latest note explores the breakthroughs and the challenges ahead 👇
alphatarget.com/insights/qua…
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P.S. Whatever stock you're looking at next, check its phase first.
It changes which metrics matter.
Free, any ticker:
stocksimplifier.com/x
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From Growth To Value retweeted
Congrats on the piece. The US launch is the part I'd flag most. Nu securing an ADGM headquarters in April alongside the Miami rollout shows the expansion is structured, not opportunistic. That distinction matters for durability.
I don't often feel proud of an article I've written, but I am of this one.
It's about $NU. Title: "Even The Pope Can't Get Good Banking In The US"
Almost 7K words, the most extensive earnings analysis I've ever written (and I'm doing this over a decade already). But no fillers, all killers.
And talking about killers: there's a killer offer (which I will never give again after this).
What you will learn:
* The Q2 results in all details (and there were many important details!)
* The main bear arguments and their context and weight.
* $NU's expansion in the USA 🇺🇸 and why it may surprise many.
* My Potential Multibaggers Quality Score update.
* The valuation of the stock.
* Is the stock a buy now?
Link: potentialmultibaggers.com/p/…
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P.S. Whatever stock you're looking at next, check its phase first.
It changes which metrics matter.
Free, any ticker:
stocksimplifier.com/x
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AlphaTarget’s Insights page publishes a new free thematic research note every month, with our entire archive available to explore.
Our thematic research notes cover the big trends shaping technology.
No subscription required. Explore below 👇
alphatarget.com/insights/
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I don't often feel proud of an article I've written, but I am of this one.
It's about $NU. Title: "Even The Pope Can't Get Good Banking In The US"
Almost 7K words, the most extensive earnings analysis I've ever written (and I'm doing this over a decade already). But no fillers, all killers.
And talking about killers: there's a killer offer (which I will never give again after this).
What you will learn:
* The Q2 results in all details (and there were many important details!)
* The main bear arguments and their context and weight.
* $NU's expansion in the USA 🇺🇸 and why it may surprise many.
* My Potential Multibaggers Quality Score update.
* The valuation of the stock.
* Is the stock a buy now?
Link: potentialmultibaggers.com/p/…
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This is called resulting.
Predicting one day moves for stocks is a fool’s game.
Last night, I predicted $META would be flat to down today following Meta Connect. The stock closed up 4.5%.
What I missed was the significance of Zuck’s comment that Muse will be the centerpiece of Meta. That comment reveals Zuckerberg is in wartime CEO mode, willing to throw out the existing architecture and rebuild the company as an agentic, AI-first business. That drive raises the probability of success and lays the foundation for a re-rating of shares.
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AOT Top Pick Strategy +71.31% YTD!
A New All Time High close!
Week 38: $MU +4.12%
(Trade details in link below)
2026 YTD: +71.31%
2025: +10.19%
2024: +37.46%
2023: +131.86%
2022: +115.74% (Bear market year)
artoftrading.net/post/aot-to…
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Is NVIDIA a buy at $225?
Great business, good valuation. I like it here.
Phase 4 of 5 · Business 4.3/5 · Valuation 4/5
Run this on any stock, free: stocksimplifier.com/x
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Ross Gerber retweeted
This guide breaks down the real-life money skills you need to feel confident with your cash-- from saving and spending to credit and investing.
No jargon, no judgment -- just the tools to help you take control and build freedom. Get the guide now 👇
getinvested.me/financial-sur…
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AI’s leading executives are divided over what the industry should do to advance its most capable models.
Anthropic’s CEO, Dario Amodei, proposed slowing the advances in AI so that safeguards can catch up. His proposal includes embedding independent evaluators in AI labs, with the cooperation and coordination of AI companies and governments. OpenAI’s CEO, Sam Altman, endorsed the idea of pacing the technology. Elon Musk agreed to some extent, particularly with the idea that companies should test each other’s models, but remains skeptical of more government oversight.
NVIDIA’s CEO, Jensen Huang, and Meta’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg both emphasized the responsibility of individual companies to develop safe products.
The disagreement seems to turn on whether company-level accountability is sufficient or collective oversight will be necessary.
As @downingARK wrote in this week's newsletter, we hope cool heads prevail, allowing the industry to address recent failures while continuing to deliver on the promise of AI’s benefits to humanity.
Read the full newsletter ⬇️
@CathieDWood teases an upcoming Letter on today's rate hike in 200+ years of context, @rhadiARK covers the SEC's and CFTC's new rules after the Clarity Act's failure, and @downingARK highlights AI leaders at odds over safety, all in this week's newsletter. nitter.net/i/article/210212595423…
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To increase your financial intelligence, study:
🔢Accounting
👨🦳Biographies
⚖️Budgeting
💸Financial Independence
📕History
📈Investing
⛵️Insurance
🧑⚖️Law
🤝Negotiating
💰Personal Finance
🧠Psychology
🏘️Real Estate
🧮Statistics
💲Taxes
⚖️Valuation
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ARK Invest retweeted
.@Uniswap settled 140 million trades in August, more than Cboe BZX and NYSE American combined.
NYSE American has been around since 1908. Uniswap launched in 2018.
Five years ago it was ~2 million trades a month.
Next rung up: NYSE Arca, at 232 million.
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Brian Feroldi retweeted
Warren Buffett:
How to tell the difference between a great, good, and gruesome business
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Federal AI regulation could lock in the biggest labs' market share. Here's why we think that matters.
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Accounts Receivable vs Accounts Payable
What's the difference?
ALT Accounts Receivable vs Accounts Payable
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Meta’s $META Muse reportedly recorded 1.8 million iOS downloads in the US and Canada during its first 12 days, compared with 1.3 million for ChatGPT over the same post-launch period, per Apptopia.
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P.S. Whatever stock you're looking at next, check its phase first.
It changes which metrics matter.
Free, any ticker:
stocksimplifier.com/x
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Cathie Wood retweeted
"Eventually we think all financial markets will be tokenized." ARK Invest just brought the ARK Venture Fund on-chain with @Securitize.
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The European problem. 😪
We own a French company that makes fighter jets. Demand right now is off the charts. They could probably have 10 to 15 years of orders.
We asked them why they wouldn't boost production. Did they not have the factory space?
They said they have plenty of space. But the second they hire more people, they can't lay them off. Because of that, they're not hiring more.
When every hire is a lifetime commitment, companies stay small, and new companies don't get started.
Look at the number of startups in Western Europe compared to the United States.
The protection of workers did not protect workers in the end, because you stop creating new jobs.
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Hyperscalers' bonds to fuel capex offer institutional investors an attractive 100-180+ basis point yield premium over Treasuries, meaning marginal balance sheet capacity is being funneled away from government debt auctions.
io-fund.com/broad-market/ai-…
$MSFT $AMZN $GOOG $ORCL
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I have a lifelong love for music.
It shares similarities with investing.
Some records I love from the first listen. Others you only understand over time.
With some records, I recognized their monumentality immediately, while the mainstream only saw it later.
One example is Jeff Buckley's Grace, which didn't sell much at first.
That's the musical equivalent of a Potential Multibagger stock. 🙂
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Rates continue to rise as there are plenty of places to put capital better than a government bond. Owners of bonds have lost a ton in the last year. Higher rates curb the bad behavior or create a crisis. America can’t afford a 5% treasury bond for long without creating a debt spiral…
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Fiscal deficits and our massive $40 trillion of debt has become a national security issue under this administration. We have no allies anymore, no foreign governments want our debt or will finance America due to errant policies on trade and basically crappy diplomacy.
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Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate jumped from $9 billion in December to $65 billion in July, more than Salesforce made in its first 25 years. What does that tell you about AI right now?
24%
It's a bubble
54%
Real demand, not hype
18%
Too early to tell
4%
Not sure
409 votes • 2 days
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Mark Minervini retweeted
A trilogy for traders. Everything you need to know about fundamentals, technicals and mindset to dramatically improve your performance. amazon.com/stores/Mark-Miner…
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Super excited for the Starship launch next week. A reminder at how big a jump in performance the V3 Starlink satellites are if they have 1 Tbps and are <2,000kg:
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Tokenizing the ARK Venture Fund puts our conviction in the evolution, if not revolution, of capital markets into practice. Based on our research, tokenization has the potential to reshape fundamentally the way that investors access and participate in both private and public financial markets. Making the ARK Venture Fund available on chain is a natural extension of our mission to democratize access to technologically enabled disruptive innovation. Because it has built the regulated infrastructure to help make that vision a reality, we are excited to partner with @Securitize in taking this important step forward.
Fund holdings and information: ark-funds.com/funds/arkvx
"Eventually we think all financial markets will be tokenized." ARK Invest just brought the ARK Venture Fund on-chain with @Securitize.
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New lows continue to outnumber new highs on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, while the NYSE advance-decline line has fallen to new lows—further evidence that participation beneath the surface remains weak. Small and mid-cap stocks continue to lag the major averages, and leadership is concentrated in a relatively narrow group of large-cap, capitalization-weighted names that appear to be benefiting from a flight to quality and perceived safety.
At the same time, the macro backdrop remains challenging. The 10-year Treasury yield is holding above 5%, crude oil pulled back, but remains near $100 a barrel, and the Federal Reserve’s latest projections suggest a continued upward trajectory for rates. At the very least, investors will likely have to contend with at least one additional rate increase before year-end.
Interestingly, some former high-growth stocks that underwent significant corrections are beginning to attract interest again—not necessarily because investors are embracing aggressive growth, but because lower prices have made their valuations more compelling relative to earnings and expected growth. In effect, some former momentum names are increasingly being viewed through a relative-value or PEG-ratio lens. As a result, many of these names have become extended and vulnerable to a pullback.
Bottom line: this remains a highly bifurcated and selective market. The major capitalization-weighted indexes can give the appearance of broad strength even while a significant portion of the market is behaving considerably worse underneath. Until breadth improves, new highs expand, and leadership broadens beyond a concentrated group of names, I would continue to treat the strength in the headline indexes with a degree of skepticism and caution.
We currently maintain a relatively light number of long positions. $TWLO, $DE, and $TEVA have held up well and continue to stand out as our strongest performers.
On the defensive side, we remain short $IWM. We reduced the size of what had been an overweight short position, but continue to maintain a hedge given the ongoing weakness in small caps and the broader deterioration beneath the surface.
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Every public company is in one of 5 phases.
The phase decides which numbers actually
matter.
Check any ticker for free:
stocksimplifier.com/x
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Every public company is in one of 5 phases.
The phase decides which numbers actually matter.
Check any ticker for free:
stocksimplifier.com/x
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I love engaging with brilliant entrepreneurs who are building and transforming the future. With thanks to @PeterDiamandis for bringing us all together, Moonshots LIVE will be out of this world!
Moonshots LIVE is offering a FREE livestream(Sept 25th). Join us for moonshot conversations with Palmer Luckey, Ben Lamm, Cathie Wood, Astro, teller and the awarding of two XPRIZEs. Register here: Moonshots.com/livestream
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P.S. Whatever stock you're looking at next, check its phase first.
It changes which metrics matter.
Free, any ticker:
stocksimplifier.com/x
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Austin Lieberman retweeted
This is the best account I’ve followed recently.
Go follow @FASTGraphs immediately.
They have the absolute best charts for seeing all the fundamentals you need in one view and they analyze stocks right here on X.
$XPEL is up 71,115% since December 2011 and most investors have never heard of it.
VALUATION (from @FASTGraphs):
Blended P/E: 21.85x
Normal P/E: 27.14x
Fair Value Ratio: 33.53x (P/E set equal to the 33.53% long term earnings growth rate)
EPS yield: 4.58%
Since December 2011 EPS is up 6,886%. So price outran earnings by about 10 to 1. The stock is currently still roughly 50% below its 2021 peak when the stock hit $103 and traded at a 90x P/E multiple. Everything since has been the multiple coming down while earnings kept growing.
THE BUSINESS:
XPEL sells paint protection film: a clear urethane layer installed over a car's paint that takes the rock chips and scratches instead of the paint, and heals light marks with heat. It also sells window tint, ceramic coatings and architectural window film.
Surprisingly, the company got its start in San Antonio in 1997 as a software company. The founders built a database of digital cutting patterns so installers could plot film to fit a specific vehicle instead of trimming it by hand on the paint with a razor. That software, DAP, is key to XPEL's success. It is the industry's largest pattern library, installers run their shops on it, and switching film brands means giving it up.
Ryan Pape became CEO in February 2009 with the stock at $0.04 and a market cap near $1 million, and put company debt on his personal credit cards to keep it alive. Revenue was roughly $3 million that year and under Pape's leadership, has grown to $476 million as of FY 25. Along the way XPEL bought its distributors in Canada, France, Australia and India, took a majority stake in its China distributor in 2025, and built its own installation centers. It now owns the software, the distribution and a growing share of the installs.
THE FUNDAMENTALS (2022 to 2025):
Revenue: $324M to $476M (13.69% CAGR)
Gross income: $128M to $201M (16.38% CAGR)
Net income: $41.4M to $51.2M (7.37% CAGR)
Operating cash flow: $12.1M to $66.9M (77.05% CAGR)
Operating margin: 16.65% to 13.03%
Return on equity: 38.05% to 19.69%
Return on invested capital: 28.23% to 17.58%
LT debt/capital: 22.85% to 5.51%
Over the last few years, Gross margin went up while Operating margin went down. The difference is operating expenses, which nearly doubled from $73.6M to $139.0M with revenue growing 47%. Net income grew at about half the rate of revenue. Cash is the bright spot. Operating cash flow went from less than a third of net income in 2022 to 1.3 times net income in 2025, and long term debt was cut to almost nothing.
EPS HISTORY:
2017: $0.04
2018: $0.32
2021: $1.14
2023: $1.91
2024: $1.65
2025: $1.85
2026 estimate: $2.22
2027 estimate: $2.89
2028 estimate: $4.10
$0.04 to $1.85 in eight years with one down year. In 2024 revenue growth slowed to 6% and EPS actually fell 14% as their Chinese distributor worked down inventory and high end car sales cooled. EPS Growth came back at 12% in 2025 and analysts model 20%, 30% and 42% in FY 26, 27, and 28.
THE CATCH:
The 33.53% growth rate behind the Fair Value Ratio covers the whole period back to 2012, when EPS was $0.05. The last three years net income grew at 7.37%. A 33.53x fair value multiple only means something if growth returns to something close to the old rate, and the estimates assume it does: 20% this year, 30% next year, 42% in 2028.
XPEL is currently at a cross roads. The company has never manufactured its own film. Historically, it has bought film from a supplier, and its edge was software, brand and distribution, which is how it earned a 28% return on invested capital with very little capital required.
In 2025 and 2026 management committed about $110 million to bring manufacturing in house: a 435,000 square foot site in San Antonio and a film plant in China. The San Antonio site alone cost $60.4 million. Management expects the margin benefit to start in mid 2027. Until then, the asset light company that earned the historical multiple is becoming a manufacturer.
At 21.85x against a 27.14x Normal P/E and a 4.58% earnings yield, XPEL screens as cheap relative to its own history, and the recent quarters hold up: Q2 revenue grew 14.7% with gross margin at 44.1%.
Two things to check before treating the discount as an opportunity. Whether operating margin turns back up from 13.03% now that the acquisitions are in the numbers. And the second half: first half 2026 EPS was $1.02, up 13%, so the $2.22 full year estimate needs about $1.20 in the second half, up 26% from the same period last year.
That acceleration either shows up in the Q3 report in November or the 20% estimate comes down.
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Kalshigate is going to make a great Netflix documentary
beyond just their volume, kalshi is inflating their user metrics
i noticed live chatter count only moves in increments of 5 so i took a look at their android app code
they literally have an amplifier called “boost_strength” that multiplies the actual number of people chatting
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Who actually pays for a wealth tax? @CathieDWood says the bill lands on US innovation, and the beneficiary is our biggest competitor, China.
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In our view, thanks to this Technology Revolution, the equity market will continue to climb a “wall of worry” as real GDP growth accelerates to 7-8% while inflation surprises significantly on the low side of expectations, interest rates rise, and the yield curve inverts.
Inflation. Deficits. Wars. Fears of an artificial intelligence bubble.
It feels like an unusually long list of reasons for investors to worry. Yet the headlines looked remarkably similar in the 1980s and 1990s, before the most durable equity bull market since the Roaring Twenties.
Today, interest rates are hitting higher highs for the first time in more than 40 years, even as equities approach record levels. Official inflation measures remain elevated, but real-time data tell a different story. Oil remains a wildcard. Meanwhile, the cost of artificial intelligence is collapsing.
These trends might seem contradictory. We believe they make more sense when viewed through 230 years of market history, not just the last 60.
Could falling inflation, accelerating real growth, and disruptive innovation be setting the stage for history to rhyme again?
Read @CathieDWood’s Investor Letter.
ark-invest.com/articles/mark…
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This analysis is pointing to an acceleration in long term real GDP growth well beyond 7-8%, the annual rate @ARKInvest is anticipating during the five years. Love this chart, @DMaguireARK!
AI Is The Most Powerful Joule In History
Economic activity transforms energy -> GDP.
Historically, technology has improved this conversion. AI represents humanity’s most profound conversion mechanism yet (~10x humans & growing).
Energy-rich, low-income countries don't exist!
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$META's Muse is great for AI.
The problem with new technology is that expectations are high, but the roll-out of the full capacity of the achievements takes time.
That's why new use cases must constantly be found, or else there is not sufficient time to fully implement the first efficiency gains.
Keep it coming!
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We are seeing a market that, on the surface, appears to be moving into a Confirmed Uptrend, with several major indexes breaking out or moving to new highs. However, the underlying evidence is far less convincing.
What is missing is a bona fide follow-through day—a strong advance of 1% or more on increased volume—accompanied by broad participation and a plentiful number of individual stocks breaking out and following through successfully. Without that confirmation, we view the action with a degree of suspicion.
The market remains severely bifurcated. Small caps, represented by the Russell 2000 (IWM), remain near their lows, while the Dow and many economically sensitive cyclical stocks continue to lag. The real strength is concentrated in the mega-cap stocks that dominate the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 and Nasdaq, along with heavily weighted indexes such as the QQQ and FNGS.
This kind of narrow leadership is more characteristic of a difficult, volatile, potentially late-stage environment than a healthy, broadly advancing market. Rising interest rates and elevated oil prices provide additional headwinds, and we are still in September, historically a challenging period for equities.
Sentiment isn't providing much clarity either. Some measures are registering meaningful fear and bearishness, while others are closer to elevated levels of bullishness. In other words, the mixed picture in the indexes is also being reflected in sentiment.
When the evidence is this conflicted, we drill down to what ultimately matters most: the individual stocks.
If quality stocks are breaking out, following through, and rewarding us for taking risk, we participate. If they aren't, we stay defensive. Right now, the evidence at the individual-stock level is also mixed and lacking and does not provide the type of confirmation that would justify aggressive exposure.
For now, we remain in a cautious, prove-it-to-me posture—taking selected opportunities where they present themselves, keeping risk tightly controlled, maintaining hedges, and allowing the market and our individual positions to earn our way into greater exposure.
Become a Minervini Private Access member today and get the Minervini Markets 360 platform included.
minervini.com
minerviniprivateaccess.com
4stocktraders.com
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