Autism incarnate Tweets are my own retarded thoughts and ramblings, not financial advice
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The biggest weakness to AI is it's only as useful as the operator can make it.
In the hands of someone with a 140 iq it can do a lot of things.
In the hands of someone with an 80 iq it's mostly just a glorified Google search.
This is why I'm not sure AI will be as revolutionary as people think it will be. The population of globally high IQ people (110+), is in rapid decline while the population of middle or low IQ (80 or lower) is rising fast.
To make AI useful you have to be able to understand your objective goal. Even if the model can do quantum physics, it takes a person with a high enough IQ to be able to work through the problem and ask good questions to the machine.
Someone with a 75 IQ doesn't likely even ponder what those questions might be. At best said person might be able to ask the questions of a few points higher than himself/herself.
AI will be useful, of course, but the TAM for it as a product will shrink into the future.
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What will be the word used for peasant class as we move back to the historical average of most people being poor?
WSJ: "Is it plausible that Americans will spend as much of their income on this one technology as they do on food? Roughly twice what the nation pays for all forms of energy or all computers and software? Seven times what consumers spend on phone, streaming, and internet services combined? You should be skeptical. Even the most transformative inventions eventually run into the law of diminishing returns: each additional dollar a user spends yields less additional productivity (or enjoyment) than the last. That imposes a natural ceiling. The question, of course, is where that ceiling is. Whether or not you think 9% of GDP is right, you have to care, because this figure isn’t some fever dream: it is implicit in the dollars that investors and companies are committing right now."
As I dissect in my report on "The AI Trade" (sageroadresearch.com/collect…), it's also important to recognize that consumers are unlikely to account for much of that "9% of GDP":
"The vast majority of consumers don’t spend money on AI, with only 3% of US households paying for an AI service as of March, according to Bank of America data. We’re doubtful that payment rate will increase significantly anytime soon. That’s in large part because AI is primarily used by consumers as a search engine and for the entire history of the internet, search engines have been accessible for free. According to McKinsey, 50% of US consumers now use AI search. AI platforms are now taking 15 to 20% of informational query volume, according to DigitalApplied. If anything, consumer AI use is a threat to search-driven revenue. AI search reduces ad interaction, with 20 to 50% of click-through traffic at risk as AI search results “capture decisions earlier in the journey,” according to McKinsey projections.
Enterprises, not consumers, are the great short- and long-term hope for AI profitability, or as Goldman Sachs’ equity research team summed up in May: “Successful enterprise AI adoption will drive the economics for the entire supply chain.”
The enterprise capital required to subsidize the AI buildout will have to come from savings generated via labor replacement or growth driven by increased productivity or a combination of both. Significant and persistent hurdles remain. To again quote the report:
"In December, we warned that market participants were overestimating GenAI’s strengths and trajectory of improvement and underestimating its persistent weaknesses, which would hold back enterprise adoption. We won’t retread all of the evidence we presented to support that conviction, but to sum up the basic concerns: Models remain error prone, which constrains utility. Their contextual understanding is limited and ivory-tower prognostications about job displacement to come neglect the contextual understanding required to execute even low-level tasks across sectors. Finally, most legacy companies will be unwilling or unprepared to tear down existing operations enough to mitigate these challenges and maximize AI’s potential."
WSJ link: wsj.com/tech/ai/will-america…
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People should stick to their areas of expertise and not step outside of it without doing their homework cause they're wrong waaaaay more than they're right if they don't.
In this case, he's wrong cause if a woman gets wealthy before marriage for whatever reason, her odds of reproducing plummet.
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The time for outsiders to leave is when you hear the majority say they don't want you there any longer.
If you don't, you tend to leave this life rather than the country.
When the immigration battles come to the U.S., it will include guns and bullets.
In France, this is civil unrest.
In America, it will be civil war.
This is why I keep saying that mass deportations are the moderate solution.
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Federally guaranteed loans for education cause this. Without it, no bank would be offering people credit that won't be able to pay off the debt.
The whole system has been fake and gay for decades. The breaking point is very soon and EVERYONE is going to be hurt because of it.
I know several women who became doctors. Many don’t work, or work half the hours of a male doctor, or wish they didn’t have to work.
The amount of female doctors and other professionals society has trained that don’t use their training at all or only a few hours/days per week, is staggering.
Men could have received that training and gotten breadwinner careers, but it was wasted on feminism-dazed women.
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Puerto Rico becomes much mroe attractive for the uber wealthy class.
The biggest thing to accept with South Florida is the hot weather most of the year.
PR becomes a 2 hr PJ ride to save a fuckton in taxes.
For the super wealthy, PJ trips are a small price to pay.
It’s pretty incredible how much has happened in South Florida just in 2026:
• Jan 12: Vanderbilt moves forward with a ~$520M West Palm Beach campus. Stephen Ross commits $50M.
• Jan 20: Wells Fargo moves its Wealth & Investment Management HQ to West Palm Beach. ~$16B annual revenue business.
• Jan 27: D-Wave moves its corporate HQ from Palo Alto → Boca Raton and builds a major R&D operation at BRiC.
• Jan 27: FAU commits $20M to bring a D-Wave quantum computer to Boca and build out its quantum ecosystem.
• Feb 17: Palantir moves its HQ from Denver → South Florida.
• Mar 25: KKR opens a permanent office in Miami.
• June 2: Pine Crest announces a new West Palm Beach campus. Stephen Ross ultimately commits $100M to the project.
• Sep 10: Andreessen Horowitz announces a West Palm Beach regional HQ for its $1.176B American Dynamism fund.
• Sep 11: Stephen Ross / Related Ross buys BRiC in Boca: 124 acres + 1.7M sq. ft. of space.
• Sep 30: Ken Griffin gives Carnegie Mellon $3 BILLION, the largest individual gift in higher-ed history. $2B goes toward building CMU Miami in Wynwood for 3,500+ students.
And this is on top of Citadel building its new Miami HQ and Stephen Ross planning $10B+ of investment across Palm Beach County.
Vanderbilt. Carnegie Mellon. Palantir. D-Wave. a16z. KKR. Wells Fargo. Citadel. FAU. Pine Crest.
Miami → Fort Lauderdale → Boca → West Palm.
Feels like South Florida is hitting an inflection point, and we’re just getting started.
This reads much more naturally for X/LinkedIn while keeping the numbers that make the story impressive.
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I expect q3 earnings to be good or a new model class to be released in the next 45 days.
They delayed the IPO for a good reason.
Dario is a giga autist BUT he's not a total moron.
Anthropic's IPO is going to be a wild ride.
I imagine it won't be that much different than SpaceX.
Where it pops initially, and then spends a month or two doing real price discovery.
It's also coming to market at a rather high premium.
One that may end up being discounted by the market until they prove themselves with a quarter or two of earnings.
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Dumb idea. It'll just get arbed out by people that over consume for business purposes. Likely they'd give some set limit but then charge regular rates above that.
.@altcap backs Trump's push for AI companies to share their wins with local communities: "I think it's brilliant. We should have an AI dividend where we have free electricity wherever we're building a data center."
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This is probably the dumbest thing I've ever listened to and the company is valued at $10B?
We are sooo close to the end of this AI cycle.
Like seriously, who writes such large checks to a 23 year old that thinks businesses choose customers based on emotion and not reason.
Instinct CEO Noah Shinn says agents will let restaurants give tables to birthdays and anniversaries over whoever clicks first
"And traditionally, because of the way that the internet has worked, at least for reservations, it's been first come first serve. So anyone that comes in, no matter how important or how not important it might be, whoever gets in first gets the reservation."
"But what if you had the ability for the agent to be able to communicate on both sides, communicate, hey, this is important. This is actually the person's spouse's birthday, the 30th birthday, a very special event is coming up."
"And the restaurant too can say, let's actually prioritize birthdays or major decade birthdays or major anniversaries or these certain people, I don't know, whatever it might be, right?"
"So now with the ability, with all of the logistical burden of having to describe exactly what your case is and what's happening and why it's important. Now we have the ability to perfectly match what does the restaurant want? What does the user want?"
"And that will result in more special events for the users being able to actually have a spot in the restaurant."
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The cost of using AI is closer to job completion, not purely based on tokens.
In real world labor (which it is supposed to replace), you not only pay for the job (labor and materials) but also the time to which it is completed. If you want it faster, you pay more.
For example, if you wanted to build a house, you an increase the time to complete by getting either more bodies on the job, getting more skilled laborers, or both (most expensive). This of course hits some limit in how fast it can be built. However, if you could pay an even higher premium and have it done from start to finish, tomorrow, commercial builders would do it as long as the expected revenue exceeded the excess cost of said instant option vs others.
You see the same in the frontier labs vs the open source models. If Anthropic or OpenAI can maintain models which are more TIME efficient, then the excess cost to use said models likely underweighs the value of the added business over competitors.
Remember if a new feature or product is expected to add say $100k of revenue/day and using frontier models can get it done in 3 weeks vs 3 months, then as long as it cost less than $6.3m to complete the job, it was worth it on just the added revenue.
The reality is that it could cost more than that marker and still be worth it because time is a component of moat. So even slightly exceeding that, would imply it's still worth it because it would increase a businesses moat over competitors.
That is what people need to look at and consider in the economics of these labs vs the open source ones.
Now realistically, the cost of the OSS tokens is rising while the frontier tokens are falling. However, that time cost due to model efficiency isn't changing.
Eventually the frontier models are likely to win simply because they're more time efficient even if they cost slightly more dollars in the end.
👀 Interesting data from @tickerplus. Acc to this data, Anthropic's ARR seems to have flatlined around the time when the token index peaked. Many people questioned (rightly) at the time the inferential value of our token index for frontier labs due to the incomplete coverage. We had argued that the token index was likely a leading indicator for where AI usage was headed.
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Whoever thinks humans are not the same people we were 1000 years ago, or 3000 years ago, is a midwit and retarded.
The only thing that has changed is we know more stuff. Julius Caesar would have been able to use a smartphone and tweet just as easily as you or I.
The only thing that has changed is technology and our understanding of science and economics.
If anything, the past 60-100 years have been rejecting ways of life that were much more functional and stable.
Slavery ended not because of some moral quandary that we all agreed was bad. It was ended because industrialization made it more expensive than paid workers. The south actually got RICHER in America POST slavery than just prior because plata nation owners were no longer liable for the slaves. The north was actually very annoyed by this fact.
The world is going to revert to the ways prior to the 20th century and it's likely any future generation will actually see people like Paul Graham as having been a fool.
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Everyone should keep an eye on Riken and Organ Tech out of Tokyo. They're entering phase 2 trials for their hair cloning therapy. If everything goes well, 2030 will be the year to get Gen 1 of the therapy.
US approval will probably be 3ish years behind but plenty of time for efficacy to improve enough that it comes within reach of the upper middle class. Likely within reach of most by 2040.
Being bald is something that will destroy a man for the rest of his life, especially if you don’t have money.
I had a friend who lost his hair, and dude literally lost his mind and went into psychosis.
That’s why it’s important to utilize minoxidil, dutasteride, finasteride, and microneedling.
Don’t listen to the bald losers on the internet who say your dick will fall off.
That’s propaganda so you can be like them.
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So yesterday Anthropic turned $2 of compute into $1. But tomorrow those economics should get better as companies that don't utilize frontier models for the most time efficient models, get left in the dust by the ones that do.
Anthropic will charge through the teeth for that advantage.
So today Anthropic turns $2 of compute in to $1 of revenue. But in the future those economics should get worse as training runs scale and more companies compete basically?
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People are getting the wrong take from that prospectus and what Anthropics business model is based off.
It's the same faulty understanding of B2B SaaS that made them believe Salesforce would go to zero because of OAI and Anthropic.
B2B isn't like consumer software where people jump around a lot. Businesses are VERY slow to change because it causes interruptions in their work flows and costs efficiency losses during switching times.
Because of this Anthropic is in a much better spot than most realize. On top of this everyone is talking 2025 Rev numbers. But 2026 is what matters as this year was the year of the major leap forward in the models AND pickup in revenue due to agents.
I expect their Financials to continue to get healthier and revenue to continue to climb.
The IPO, IF it comes in November, is likely going to top 2T.
How should we price a company in a highly-competitive, capital-intensive industry, producing a product with zero switching costs, no network effects, negligible brand power, that turns into a commodity with near-zero pricing power if you can't continuously iterate at frontier levels forever?
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This was true until the GFC two decades ago. The bad should have been washed out but instead the government picked winners and losers. Since then it's been all fake and gay, running everything on fake economics.
The beauty of American capitalism is that it creates a natural cycle of washing out the old guard to make room for new innovation and technology
It is a function of economic incentives being set the right away, social mobility being accessible, and most importantly, the culture of America
Very few nations in history have created the results that America has been able to produce. Truly incredible country
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Why can't my brain atrophy while my investments go up and my agents do all of my work for me?
In all more seriousness, I call bullshit. Most likely you're gonna get a massive crash that wipes out a giga fuckton of paper wealth. AI is useful but doesn't fix the geriatric boomer class from leaving a massive power and financial vacuum as they exit this world.
More likely is a 10-20 year global depression, especially if the US balkanizes due to the DSA taking over in 2028/2032.
The more I study the world, the more I worry everything will be K-shaped going forward.
Assets and asset holders will become richer while those living paycheck to paycheck continue losing purchasing power.
Smart people will use AI to do amazing things while the rest of humanity atrophies their brains doomscrolling and can’t even do basic math anymore.
Good houses and good cities will continue rising in value and importance while the long tail gets looked over.
I'm seeing this everywhere I look.
I'm not sure how this gets reversed anymore. If anything, it feels like it will speed up.
There is a brief window right now to make sure you are on the top end of the K-curve before it's too late.
Please for the sake of your bloodline.
Don't get left behind.
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