We know many of you are eager to know what will happen to Lightning payments in the BULL wallet, and when you will be able to convert L-BTC to BTC.
The reality is that the Liquid network's situation is completely outside of BULL’s control: we have to wait for the Federation to resume pegouts.
Any service that accepts L-BTC to send out BTC will soon accumulate L-BTC in its inventory, while its BTC inventory is depleted. Under normal circumstances, swap services that accumulate L-BTC use the pegout mechanism to rebalance their inventory. Absent this mechanism, our view is that a swap provider or exchange cannot operate sustainably.
BULL could re-enable inbound Lightning payments, allowing users to start accumulating L-BTC again, which would provide liquidity for those who want to exit L-BTC.
We have decided not to follow this approach for now and will wait for pegouts to resume, because that approach would rely on some users taking the risk of holding L-BTC without compensation or a guarantee that they can exit back to BTC.
For the pegout mechanism to be reactivated in Liquid, two conditions must be met.
First, the software needs to be secure to avoid another exploit that could drain the federation’s remaining ~3,600 BTC. That part is within the control of the federation members and their IT provider, Blockstream. The known vulnerabilities, as far as we know, have been fixed. What is harder is finding any currently unknown vulnerabilities, but this should not prevent the Liquid network from moving forward.
The second and most serious problem is that the total amount of BTC held by the federation must be equal to the total amount of L-BTC in circulation. In other words, the backing of L-BTC by BTC must return to a 1:1 ratio. We are aware of ongoing efforts to 'fill the gap' and at this stage, all we can do is wait for that to happen. Once that is done, BULL will be able to offer a conversion service that allows users to exchange their L-BTC for BTC at a 1:1 exchange rate.
Based on the information we have, our expectation is that Liquid swap and exchange services allowing users to convert their L-BTC to BTC could resume within 30 days. This is an educated guess, not a guarantee.
Looking beyond the current situation, we are also evaluating the best path forward for Lightning payments in the BULL wallet. As part of BULL’s ongoing R&D efforts, our CEO,
@francispouliot_ is preparing a presentation examining the tradeoffs of the main alternative payment protocols available to Bitcoin wallets.
The goal is to identify the most robust and sustainable architecture for providing BULL users with the best possible experience going forward.
We would like to thank all our users for their continued patience and understanding. We will share further updates as reliable information becomes available.