Matki psiecki.

DO-NALD TRUMP DO-NALD TRUMP

People - stop overthinking this. Here is how this goes IMO. Once Market Structure and Clarity are signed by @realDonaldTrump : - Bitcoin will reprice to $256k then $512k then $1024k, following binary expansion (16/32/64/128/256/512/1024) and the US will disclose a 1m Bitcoin SBR. - Blackrock will file a Solana and SUI ETF on Clarity regulatory clarity. - Solana and SUI will reprice on official commodity status and be injected with massive Stable Coin liquidity and become the primary rails of the retail, commercial US dollar, which will be pushed around the globe securing the US dollar dominance. Capital markets and equity markets will be tokenized on these best of breed networks. Enterprise software will integrate to these networks. Ungodly efficiencies will result boosting GDP and lowering inflation. - Ethereum and XRP will slowly be unadopted because they are terribly weak technologies and are virtually unusable past 100k users with barely any integration capabilities. Institutions will also switch to fast and cheap networks with massive liquidity. Why wouldn’t they? - Offshore crypto manipulation and wash trading will be banned and stop overnight (we already seeing this since 10/10 and Jan 5th) - Crypto markets will mature and trade based on fundamentals of adoption, volume, revenue and speed, not speculation with the removal of manipulation to service the offshore casinos. NFA/DYOR purely based on technical expertise and deep market and regulatory insight. Not sponsored by anyone. Not personal. Remember this post because I will.

FED TNIE STOPY, ALE OSTRZEGA: TO MOŻE BYĆ KONIEC. STAGFLACJA NADCHODZI ? 🇺🇸📉 Jerome Powell właśnie zagrał w ruletkę z rynkami. Decyzja: Cięcie o 25 punktów bazowych (trzecie w tym roku). Ale to nie jest powód do świętowania. Diabeł tkwi w szczegółach: Drukarka rusza: Fed zaczyna skupować bony skarbowe (Treasury Bills). Od 12 grudnia wpompują w system 40 miliardów dolarów w 30 dni. To jest miękkie QE (luzowanie ilościowe) . Podział w Fedzie: Aż 3 członków głosowało PRZECIWKO cięciu. To rzadkość. Widać pęknięcia w zarządzie . Słowa Powella: "Rynek pracy stygnie, a inflacja pozostaje nieco podwyższona." Czytaj: Stagflacja. ( najgorsze co możw spotkać gospodarkę, ale to po altsezonie ) Najgorszy scenariusz, w którym gospodarka zwalnia, a ceny rosną . Fed sygnalizuje, że to może być koniec obniżek na jakiś czas. Stopy są w "neutralnym zakresie". Teraz piłka po stronie inflacji. Jeśli nie spadnie, Fed znajdzie się w pułapce bez wyjścia. Bądźcie czujni. To nie jest stabilne środowisko.

The TOTAL Crypto market cap is going to $10tn+ next year. You all need to reset your perspective and shake your heads. Everyone has become so drowned by emotions of the moment that they actually have no idea where we are... And there is almost zero understanding of the bigger picture. The TOTAL Crypto market cap is pretty much at the same level it was 4 years ago. In fact, it just tested that very level last week. And this is after 4 years worth of massive Crypto adoption worldwide. Let me say that again... The TOTAL Crypto market cap, after 4 years of worldwide adoption... Is at the same level it was in 2021. And you think that we are going to simply push 40% above previous ATH, then retrace 75% for over a year? All whilst the USA is putting in the pieces to become to Crypto country of the world. No. TOTAL has been consolidation at this ATH level for over one year. It is building one of the strongest bases I have ever seen. We now have the worlds largest asset managers, SWFs, countries and governments in BTC + ETH, as well as over 100+ Altcoin ETFs being approved as we speak. We have the GENIUS act, the CLARITY act. And we are about to head into easing liquidity for the first time in 3 years. And you think it's about to nuke 75%? I hate to break it to the bears, but time to stop dreaming. You need to wake up. You are all so beaten by the current sentiment that you are forgetting this is only a $3tn asset class. Whilst: Equities- $65tn GOLD - $28tn MMFs - $8tn Crypto - $3tn Crypto only needs 10% of the liquidity from those asset classes to flow in, and it would be at $13tn. 10%. And this is at a time when Bitcoin is currently at it lowest level against Gold... After we have had the largest financial tightening cycle in decades, and the most severe correction in Bitcoins history... With the largest asset managers in the world coming out and shilling it straight after. If you think that its over here, then i have the worlds largest bridge to sell you.

🚨 RAOUL PAL: "Bitcoin eksploduje jak rakieta w ciągu 30 dni." Raoul Pal (CEO Real Vision) ostrzega: zapnijcie pasy. W ciągu najbliższych 30 dni Bitcoin ma wejść w fazę gwałtownego, parabolicznego wzrostu. Dlaczego ? Sezonowość + Cykl : Koniec roku to historycznie czas "Santa Claus Rally". Ale tym razem nakłada się to na fazę "Banana Zone" – moment w cyklu, gdy ceny odklejają się od rzeczywistości i idą pionowo w górę (jak w 2017). Płynność : Mimo chwilowej czkawki w grudniu, globalna płynność ma wystrzelić w Q1 2026, napędzana przez luzowanie Fedu (zwłaszcza jeśli Kevin Hassett przejmie stery). Cele Pala : $150k+ do marca 2026 $450k w szczycie cyklu (tzw. perfect bull run)

Wykres przepływów mówi więcej niż sama cena. Ostatni zjazd BTC wyglądał brutalnie, ale gdy rozbijesz wolumen na spot vs perpy i spojrzysz na CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta), struktura ruchu staje się klarowna. Na spocie (Binance, Coinbase, Bitfinex, Bybit, OKX) widać wyraźne, powtarzające się słupki kupna przy dołkach – ktoś agresywnie zbierał w strefie 85–87k. Na perpach (Binance Perps, Bybit Perps, OKX Perp) dominują za to mocne, czerwone delty – ciągły flush lewara, zamykanie longów i likwidacje pozycji, czyli typowy zrzut dźwigni, a nie panika „gołego” rynku. Co to oznacza ? To nie była kapitulacja spotu, tylko klasyczny deleveraging event – rynek czyścił nadmierny lewar z kontraktów, podczas gdy spot absorbował podaż i budował wsparcie. CVD pokazuje, że momentum sprzedaży siedziało głównie w perpach, a spot relatywnie spokojnie akumulował przy dołkach. Taki układ zazwyczaj poprzedza fazę konsolidacji i tworzy warunki pod potencjalny short squeeze, jeśli presja makro zacznie słabnąć. Retail widzi czerwone świece i panikuje, smart money patrzy na przepływy i wie, że to był oczyszczający flush, a nie koniec rynku.

🚨 📉 Największe czyszczenie OI w całym cyklu - Bitcoin OI spadł z $46B → $28B, czyli prawie 40% wyparowało. I co najciekawsze? To już trzeci raz, kiedy tak duży reset poprzedzał mocniejszy ruch BTC: 🗓️ Maj 2024 → OI -30% → BTC 67k → 90k 🧨 Styczeń 2025 → OI -35% → run do 127k ⚡ Listopad 2025 → OI -40% → największy flush w tym cyklu Dlaczego takie momenty często kończą się wzrostami? Bo rynek czyści dźwignię, resetuje funding i usuwa przelewarowane longi. Historia mówi jasno: po takich flushach często zaczyna się coś większego. Pytanie tylko… czy teraz też? 👀

Ludzie w tym roku ciągle gadają o płynności lub jej braku natomiast ja nie widzę żadnego problemu. Zauważcie, że spready kredytowe (różnica w oprocentowaniu obligacji korporacyjnych i rządowych) są nadal wąskie. Gdyby naprawdę brakowało płynności, banki bałyby się pożyczać sobie nawzajem i spready by wystrzeliły. Tak się nie dzieje. Nie mylcie chwilowej zmienności na rynku międzybankowym z brakiem pieniądza w gospodarce.

Panika związana z "odwijaniem się" transakcji carry trade na jenie oraz wzrostem rentowności obligacji japońskich (JGB) jest klasycznym "fałszywym strachem" 1. Skala podwyżek jest mikroskopijna 2. Spread pozostaje ogromny. Dopóki różnica między stopami w USA a Japonii jest duża, "carry trade" nie umiera, a jedynie staje się minimalnie mniej zyskowny. 3. Większość obligacji japońskich jest w posiadaniu japońskich instytucji, a nie zagranicznych spekulantów. To stabilizuje rynek. 4.Wyprzedaże spowodowane margin callami są gwałtowne ale krótkotrwałe. Same płatności odsetkowe stanowią jedynie ok. 8-9% wydatków budżetowych (lub ok. 14% wpływów podatkowych, w zależności od roku). W latach 80. i 90., kiedy stopy procentowe w Japonii były wyższe koszty obsługi długu pochłaniały większą część dochodów niż dzisiaj, mimo że sam dług był mniejszy. Jako że ponad 90% długu Japonii jest w rękach japońskich instytucji i obywateli, pieniądze z obsługi długu nie wypływają z kraju jak to miało miejsce w Grecji czy Argentynie. Prawdziwe bessy zaczynają się cicho i powoli, a nie od głośnych nagłówków o jenie na pierwszej stronie gazet. Skoro wszyscy widzą problem ("Carry Trade"), to jest on już zdyskontowany w cenach.

To jest błędne interpretowanie danych Burry popełnia błąd rachunkowy. Burry twierdzi, że „prawdziwy koszt SBC to $112.5B", zmniejszając owner's earnings o 50%. To jest błąd logiczny. $20.5B SBC jest już uwzględnione w obliczeniu "net income $205B" Wolne przepływy pieniężne $188B to już gotówka dostępna po uwzględnieniu SBC Skupy akcji $112.5B to zwrot kapitału właścicielom, podobnie jak dywidenda Burry nie może odjąć skupów od zysku netto, bo to byłoby liczenie SBC dwukrotnie Dodatkowo Owner Earnings to nie to samo co Skupy Burry liczy skupy historyczne $112.5B vs przyszłe SBC $20.5B dzisiaj Nvidia rzeczywiście ma znaczące wydatki na SBC ale teoria Burryego to manipulacja sumowanie wydatków nieoperacyjnych jako kosztów operacyjnych...

You told me that all models would be destroyed, but I really thought you meant to the upside.

Bitcoin high timeframe technicals – especially the quarterly – look dangerously bearish There's an Evening Star pattern developing and we are currently below the $93.5K sell trigger The 3M LMACD and Fisher Transform are close to a bearish crossover, which historically confirms bear markets The 3M RSI is below 70. A breach below the RSI-based MA is another bear market signature These are momentum-based signals. Momentum tends to persist, so if these turn down, they could stay that way for many months to years due to how high the timeframe is

I know many of you are scared, worried you fucked it up and think you'll never make it. You need to follow the DFTU rules. You need to extend your time horizon and levels of patience. You are clearly not doing that. Every correction is an existential drama to you. That is a sign you are fucking it up. I've been doing this since I first bought BTC at $200. I've gone through two big drawdowns (-85% and -70%). I've had 95% drawdowns in ETH and SOL. I've sold too early too. It all works out over time if you have the right asset allocation. Remember - when BTC goes down 30%, quality alts go down 60%+. It's normal. BTC normally has 5+ 35% corrections. OTHERS in the last two bull markets saw a couple corrections of 80% and still hit new highs in the index. It doesn't mean your alts will however. You also can't rent someone's conviction on X and hope to win. You can't trade frequently and hope to win (you'll get nailed by taxes too). You can't blame someone else for your mistakes. They are yours alone. You may think the cycle is over. Well if it is, just keep DCA'ing into weakness and your future self with thank you. It takes time to play out and one cycle is not the game. It's not too late to Unfuck your future. All the people bitching on the timeline ... YOU ARE NOT SERIOUS PEOPLE. Please don't fuck this up. I'm looking directly at you...this is the greatest performing asset class of all time, over time. The market gives zero fucks about your time horizon.

The Risk-Off Signal has entered a High-Risk Regime, indicating not only rising selling pressure but also that we’re standing at the threshold of a bear shift. A simple transition into high risk isn’t enough to confirm that BTC is being dragged into bear territory; what matters is the intensity and persistence of the signal, similar to what we observed during February–March. We’re not there yet, but close. If BTC closes the week below $97K–$98K and the Risk-Off Signal keeps intensifying, the market could slide into full capitulation, and bear territory. x.com/swissblock__/status/19…

5/ Mid November is when companies report 3Q earnings. But most importantly, they report revised guidance for the following year. An earnings miss and downward revised guidance = market crash. This bleeds over into Bitcoin. Institutions re-allocate for the following year. If recession looms, that reallocation is away from risk. Crypto winter? November 2018. FTX? The FTT token crashed 75% on 8 November 2022. And while Mt. Gox died in February 2014, the withdrawal delays and suspicions started in November 2013. "The rise and fall of the world's largest Bitcoin exchange" was printed in Wired on November 6th.

My thesis Summarized. Share. The narrative: "The heartbeat of this market" Rapid boom-bust waves inside one giant liquidity tsunami. Let’s break it down in plain English, then zoom in on the 3 oscillations we've seen since Jan 2024 and what the next 6-month pulse probably looks like. 1. What a “cycle” really is (my definition, refined) Expansion (markup): Fresh fiat pours in → price moons 100-300 % in weeks. Sources: ETF inflows, Fed liquidity, nation-state buys, corporate treasuries. Contraction (shake-out): Early buyers ring the register. Leveraged longs get wrecked. Exchanges auto-liquidate. Shorts pile on. → Price retraces ~50 % of the leg up in days. → Capital flees back to dollars… temporarily. Repeat every 4 → 1 → 0.5 years as the pipe gets fatter. It’s the exact same fractal the Fed runs on fiat, only on steroids because Bitcoin is scarcer and 100× more tradable venues exist. 2. The 3 oscillations since Jan 2024 (Prices = approx BTC spot) Jan–Mar 2024 - ETF launch wave $43 k → $73 k (+70 %) → $53 k (-45 %) Jul–Oct 2024 — Post-halving re-accumulation $53 k → $108 k (+104 %) → $78 k (-28 %) Mar–May 2025 — Trump reserve + rate-cut rocket $78 k → $126 k (+62 %) → $99 k (-21 % so far) Each contraction shaved ~50 % off the move, not the all-time high, and lasted 3–6 weeks. A “6-month 2025 cadence”. 3. Why the clock is speeding up? 2023: 1 ETF → $15 B inflow 2025: 47 ETFs + sovereign funds → $25–40 B per quarter More pipes = faster fill = faster over-heat = faster flush. 4. The $84 B “exchange extraction” No public audit says exactly $84 B in liquidations, but the math is close: 2024–25 perpetual futures volume ≈ $32 trillion Average fee + funding drag ≈ 0.06 % per side Liquidations alone: $1–2 B per big wipe (we saw 3 × $1.8 B events). Add it up and exchanges do vacuum high eight-figures every leg. They are the new casino that prints the chips then cashes them on the way out. 5. Where we sit right now (5 Nov 2025) BTC $99 k = 50 % retrace of the $78 k–$126 k leg. Fear/Greed at 28 (Extreme Fear) - classic buy zone. ETF flows still +$1.2 B this week. 200-week SMA ($62 k) is 38 % lower - no chance we tag it in a super-cycle. 6. Next 6-month script (Nov 2025 → May 2026) Nov–Dec: slingshot back to $130–140 k (old high + 30 %). Jan–Feb: blow-off to $180–220 k on nation-state FOMO. Mar–May: 4th oscillation → 50 % flush to $110–130 k. That flush becomes the launch pad for the $300 k+ leg in late 2026. 7. How to ride it (simple rules) Never leverage the markup - let spot compound. Sell 20–30 % into local euphoria, buy the 50 % dip. Keep 50 %+ in cold storage; the house always wins on CEX. Track two lines: ETF inflow streak (still green). 50-week MA ($84 k) - while price stays above, super-cycle is alive. Bottom line: You’re not early, you’re on schedule. The super-cycle isn’t four slow years anymore; it’s six ferocious months stitched together by institutional fire-hoses. Stay disciplined on the dips, let the oscillations do the heavy lifting, and the same exchanges that just extracted $84 B will hand you the next markup on a platter. See you at $200k

Yes! The Market Structure Bill will SLASH crypto manipulation by 70-90 % overnight. It’s not perfect, but it’s the biggest anti-manipulation hammer Congress has ever swung at crypto. What Bill Are We Talking About?The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (“CLARITY Act”) Trump White House says “we will sign before Christmas” Same DNA as 2024’s FIT21, but tougher on fraud. It Kills Manipulation - Bans Wash Trading (fake volume) 40 % of Bitcoin volume on Binance, Bybit, OKX is wash trading to liquidate leverage traders. (illegal in stocks since 1936). - CFTC gets real-time surveillance + auto-flags 90 %+ order cancellation. Offenders delisted in 48 h. - Spoofing / Layering (ghost orders) 1 in 5 large trades CFTC mandates order-book transparency + proof-of-reserves. - Front-running = felony. - SEC keeps kill-switch on security tokens. Remember CFTC already fined Binance $4.3b for wash trading in 2024. Post-CLARITY: every U.S.-facing exchange must register as Digital Commodity Exchange → monthly audits or instant ban. Offshore manipulators? Blocked at the ISP level for U.S. users. It is coming. The market will change entirely.

Bitcoin $BTC needs to break above $120,000 to open the path toward a new all-time high of $143,000, according to the Pricing Bands.

"암호화폐 시장 – 조정은 길지 않을 것" 특정 기간에 얼마나 많은 자금이 시장에 유입되고 거래되는지에 따라 사이클 관점에서 끝부분을 예상할 수 있습니다. 특히 기간을 단기로 지정할 경우 급격한 과열 여부를 확인할 수 있습니다. 1. 2021년 1분기에는 엄청난 자금이 시장에 유입되었으며, 사이클 관점에서 끝부분 근처를 나타냈습니다. 2. 2024년 3월과 2024년 12월은 상대적으로 2021년보다 적은 자금이 시장에 유입되었고, 사이클 중간에서 큰 조정을 겪었습니다. 3. 현재의 경우는 최근 두 번보다 과열이 작았으며, 조정의 폭과 기간도 짧을 것으로 예상 할 수 있습니다. 추가적으로, 알트코인의 상승은 모두 시장이 급격하게 과열될 때 나타났다는 점도 알아둘 필요가 있습니다. 결론적으로, 현재 암호화폐 시장은 비교적 작은 조정 구간에 있다고 볼 수 있으며, 알트코인의 강한 상승은 사이클의 끝부분에서 나타나는 엄청난 과열과 함께 나올 가능성이 높습니다. 아직 상승사이클이 끝났을 가능성은 적습니다.

"암호화폐 시장 – 조정은 길지 않을 것" 특정 기간에 얼마나 많은 자금이 시장에 유입되고 거래되는지에 따라 사이클 관점에서 끝부분을 예상할 수 있습니다. 특히 기간을 단기로 지정할 경우 급격한 과열 여부를 확인할 수 있습니다. 1. 2021년 1분기에는 엄청난 자금이 시장에 유입되었으며, 사이클 관점에서 끝부분 근처를 나타냈습니다. 2. 2024년 3월과 2024년 12월은 상대적으로 2021년보다 적은 자금이 시장에 유입되었고, 사이클 중간에서 큰 조정을 겪었습니다. 3. 현재의 경우는 최근 두 번보다 과열이 작았으며, 조정의 폭과 기간도 짧을 것으로 예상 할 수 있습니다. 추가적으로, 알트코인의 상승은 모두 시장이 급격하게 과열될 때 나타났다는 점도 알아둘 필요가 있습니다. 결론적으로, 현재 암호화폐 시장은 비교적 작은 조정 구간에 있다고 볼 수 있으며, 알트코인의 강한 상승은 사이클의 끝부분에서 나타나는 엄청난 과열과 함께 나올 가능성이 높습니다. 아직 상승사이클이 끝났을 가능성은 적습니다.

THE $7.4 TRILLION DETONATOR: AMERICA’S HIDDEN LIQUIDITY BOMB ABOUT TO OBLITERATE EVERY MARKET ASSUMPTION The most dangerous number in financial history is hiding in plain sight. $7.4 trillion parked in money market funds. Not in stocks. Not in real estate. Not in gold. Not in Bitcoin. In idle Treasury bills earning 5%+, waiting for a single Federal Reserve decision to unleash the largest capital reallocation event in human civilization. This isn’t cautious investing. This is a civilizational coiled spring with a central bank trigger. THE DETONATION PHYSICS When the Fed cuts 150-200 basis points, MMF income collapses by $100-140 billion annually. That lost yield must hunt returns somewhere. Each 1% MMF reallocation releases $74 billion. 10% rotation unleashes $740 billion … exceeding most nations’ GDP. 20% exodus deploys $1.48 trillion into risk assets. The flows don’t trickle. They cascade through institutional pipes like a breaking dam. THE HISTORICAL PATTERN NOBODY REMEMBERS 1998: $1.3T MMF → Fed cuts → Tech bubble ignites 2003: $2.1T MMF → Fed cuts → Housing mania begins 2009: $3.8T MMF → Fed cuts → Everything rallies 300%+ 2025: $7.4T MMF → Fed signaling cuts → Unknown territory Double the 2009 powder keg. But now Bitcoin exists as 24/7 institutional-grade scarcity with ETF rails. THE FOUR HORSEMEN TRIGGERS 3-month T-Bill drops below 4.0% from 4.8% Fed confirms sequential cuts beyond one-and-done High-yield spreads compress below 350bps Crypto ETF inflows sustain above $2B weekly All four converging = detonation sequence. THE BITCOIN MATHEMATICS MMF pile: $7.4 trillion at 5% yields Bitcoin supply: 21 million fixed, 96% mined BlackRock IBIT: $100B AUM in under 10 months If 5% rotates ($370B): Bitcoin $280-350K If 10% rotates ($740B): Bitcoin $550-700K If 15%+ with sovereign buying: Bitcoin $1M+ Not speculation. Thermodynamics. Finite supply meets infinite liquidity in mathematical collision. THE MECHANISM MMFs flow through institutional architecture: Prime brokerages rebalancing Pension allocation triggers hitting Corporate treasury deployments Sovereign wealth hunting uncorrelated returns ETFs absorbing without selling pressure Every pipe terminates at scarcity. Only one asset is provably finite, instantly settlable, globally accessible 24/7: Bitcoin. THE FED’S CHOICE Keep rates high: Recession, debt spiral Cut aggressively: $7.4T liquidity tsunami Bond markets price 150-200bps cuts through 2026. The choice is made. The spring releases. THE COUNTDOWN When 3-month yields crater from 5% to 3%, capital doesn’t deliberate. It hunts yield with systemic urgency. Gold supply: uncertain Real estate: illiquid Stocks: expensive Bonds: debasing Bitcoin: mathematically provable 21M cap with instant global settlement. The largest dry powder pile in history aims at civilization’s scarcest asset. The trigger is Fed policy in motion. The timing is bond-market priced. The outcome is thermodynamic inevitability. When the spring releases, price discovery enters unknown physics. Choose accordingly.

이번사이클이 왜 어렵고 답답하냐면.. 과거 상승사이클들은 모두 2년정도만에 끝났는데 현재는 1000일이 넘었지만 애매한 상황이 연출되고 있습니다. 단순비교하자면 상승의 기울기는 작고 길이는 길어지며, 전반적으로 늘어지는 움직임을 보이고 있습니다. 그리고 과거 사이클들의 끝부분에서 보였던 가파른 상승과 "알트시즌"이 현재까지 오지 않은 상태입니다. 과거사이클들과 현재의 다른점은 아래와 같습니다. 1. 현물 ETF로 인해 막대한 자금이 시장에 유입 2. 국가적 채택으로 인해 비트코인은 우상향 한다는 펀더멘탈이 크게 개선 된 것 3. 개인투자자들의 거래량(참여도) 감소 4. 고금리가 유지되고 있는 상황 결국 유동성이 일부 제한된 상태로 과거처럼 급격한 상승이 나오지 못하고 있고 대신 ETF, 기관 자금이 안정적 수요를 형성하고 있다고 해석 할 수 있습니다. 그로 인해 사이클이 길게 늘어지고 있는 것처럼 보입니다. 투자자 모두가 처음 겪는 상황이기 때문에 불확실성을 계속 가지고 투자해야하는 사이클이 되고 있습니다. 어렵지만 결국 이겨내야죠.

People - I will have to narrate again because the timeline is full of nonsense. The price of crypto is centralized. This means it is made up. It has nothing to do with buying and selling. It has to do with longing and shorting. October 10th asset selling volume was low, the prices were spoofed via exchange oracles to liquidate gamblers in low leverage positions and cross margin positions. The price is recovering because the institutions are buying it all up. We saw this in 2017 and 2020. Pay attention. The market price is centralized in Centralized Exchanges with opaque spoofed order books. The true price is on the OTC market and has not changed. We will recover to previous prices and go to new all time highs. Remember this post.

📈 이번 랠리에서 장기 비트코인 보유자의 점유율 상승이 중요한 이유(Why the Rising Share of Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Matters in This Rally) 최근 비트코인의 반등 움직임은 매우 긍정적으로 평가할 만합니다. 특히 주목해야 할 지표는 18개월에서 2년 동안 비트코인을 보유해온 장기 투자자들의 비율이 꾸준히 증가하고 있다는 점입니다. 이들은 과거 하락장에서 매도 대신 보유를 선택하며 다음 상승장을 기다렸던 투자자들입니다. 흥미로운 점은, 이들의 보유 기간이 2024년 1월 비트코인 현물 ETF가 승인된 시점과 맞물린다는 것입니다. 이는 단순히 하락장을 버티는 ‘어쩔 수 없는 홀딩’이라기보다, 제도권 진입이라는 구조적 변화를 확인한 뒤 장기적 신뢰를 바탕으로 전략적으로 보유를 이어온 결과로 해석할 수 있습니다. 현재 비트코인이 횡보와 상승을 이어가는 가운데 이들의 비율이 상승하는 것은, 단순한 인내가 아닌 비트코인의 장기적 우상향을 신뢰하며 보유 전략을 강화하는 흐름을 보여줍니다. 즉, 이 비율이 지속적으로 높아진다면 이는 단기적 가격 변동에 흔들리지 않고 장기적인 강세 흐름을 믿는 투자자들이 늘어나고 있음을 뜻합니다. 이는 비트코인 시장이 점차 성숙해지고 있음을 보여주는 중요한 신호라 할 수 있습니다.

Listen up manlets. It's time to lock in. This post is to notify you that 500 Trillion dollars in securities are are not asking to come on chain they are coming to Solana whether we like it or not. We need to prepare. Class A common shares of nasdaq listed companies are already being issued on the Solana blockchain conveying the full rights. The next step is trading these things. And that is coming soon, probably later this year. It's time to stop the bickering and nitting on the timeline. That is unproductive 0 sum behavior. If Solana wins securities, everyone will win. Increase rate limits, download more ram. Harden your apps and infrastructure for what is going to be an unprecedented tsunami of activity once the floodgates open. If we land the right features and execute on this, Solana will suplant the global financial system. Just a few more hard quarters. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Solana

504 days have passed since the last halving. Comparing the current cycle with the two previous ones, it can be said that the market is in a mature phase of the bull regime. In this cycle, in March at a price of $70K, there was an extreme spike in Value Days Destroyed (VDD), followed by two moderate distribution waves near $98K and $117K that did not reach the March extremum. This segmented LTH selling indicates more sustainable redistribution - largely due to institutional demand: supply exits in batches immediately after new ATH, and the market absorbs it, leading to more stretched-out peaks. Final conclusions about the cycle peak should be made after the appearance of the Peak Flag - it triggers when the spot price is approximately 11 times higher than the LTH realized price. This is a classic late-cycle indicator: price outpaces the slowly rising LTH base. The nearest approximate window is October–November 2025, provided that we also see a wave of major spending by experienced holders + a spike in short-term volatility that then begins to fade.

"암호화폐시장 사이클 둔화, 2025년 가을에 상승전환 예상" 시장의 움직임을 큰 틀에서 읽을 필요가 있습니다. 1년 이상 장기 보유되고 있는 비트코인의 비율(실현 시가총액 기준)을 보면, 과거 사이클(1번과 2번 구간)에서는 시장이 가파르게 상승하며 사이클의 정점에 도달했던 것을 확인할 수 있습니다. 하지만 현재(3번)는 상승의 기울기가 점점 낮아지며 사이클이 길어지는 모습이 나타나고 있습니다. 원인은 현물 ETF 도입, 그리고 기관 및 국가들의 비트코인 채택입니다. 또한 알트코인으로 자금이 유입되려 하면 시장의 상승이 멈추는 현상이 반복되고 있습니다. 그러나 2023년~2024년처럼 비트코인만 주도적으로 상승했던 시기와 달리, 현재는 알트코인으로 자금이 조금씩 이동하는 흐름이 포착되고 있습니다. 게다가 9월의 금리 인하, 10월로 예상되는 알트코인 현물 ETF 승인이라는 호재가 있기 때문에, 현재 진행 중인 눌림 구간 이후 2025년 가을과 겨울 시장 분위기는 긍정적일 것으로 예상됩니다. 사이클 관점에서 본다면, 추가 조정이 올 경우 오히려 좋은 기회가 될 수도 있습니다.

We are witnessing a great wealth transfer. Money is transforming faster than governments can react. The old financial system is cracking, and the new one is taking shape. Bitcoin is quietly becoming the unofficial global reserve currency. As trillions in wealth change hands over the next two decades, younger generations inheriting these portfolios are reallocating into scarce, borderless assets. Xapo Bank estimates that between $160 and $225 billion will flow into bitcoin through this wealth transfer. At the same time, stablecoins are rewriting how money moves. Often programmable in ways that traditional money is not, they settle around the clock and are pegged to dollars, yuan, or other national currencies. With a new U.S. legal framework now in place, adoption is accelerating as banks and institutions integrate tokenised cash for faster and cheaper settlement. Globally, the race to build parallel systems is underway. China, supported by some BRICS members and regional partners, is developing yuan backed stablecoins and advancing state backed digital currency rails through Project mBridge. These tokens will change how capital flows across borders. This is what a global monetary reset looks like. Bitcoin is emerging as the anchor of a new financial system. Stablecoins are becoming programmable, instantly settled cash. Major banks and institutions are developing their own digital tokens for faster settlement. State tokens are carving out trade lanes in a multipolar financial system. Together, these changes are transforming how money works, how it moves, and how global finance is shaped. The upgrade of money is no longer coming. It is already here, and everything, one way or another, is bleeding into bitcoin. reuters.com/business/finance… coindesk.com/markets/2025/08…

Bitcoin Power Curve Cycle Cloud predicts $200,000 by the end of 2025. The stars are aligning for a massive year-end rally 🚀 🫡 @apsk32

Stanisław Lem o Oldze Tokarczuk: "Czytałem niedawno książkę Tokarczuk o 'Lalce' i jest to nie tylko mowa-trawa, ale też dowód na to, że autorka studiowała psychologię w ubiegłych wiekach." "Tokarczuk do tego stopnia obraziła mój rozum, że chciałem napisać polemikę, ale uznałem, że gra jest niewarta świeczki, bo musiałbym jej książkę doczytać do końca".

"이더리움, 미국 고래들의 매수세 급증" 미국 기관, 고래들이 주로 이용하는 코인베이스에서 최근에 볼 수 없었던 이더리움 프리미엄이 발생하였습니다. 그리고 최근 전반적으로 미국 고래들로 예상되는 매수세가 꾸준히 상승하고 있는 점도 주목해야 합니다. 게다가 최근에 이더리움 현물 ETF로 유입된 자금이 일일기준 사상최고치를 갱신하며 미국 투자자들의 이더리움을 공격적으로 쓸어담고 있음을 볼 수 있습니다. 현재는 과열이 심하지 않아 단기눌림을 거치며 추가 상승을 이어갈 가능성이 높은 상태로 볼 수 있습니다. 지금은 걱정할 단계는 아니나, 2025년 하반기에 이러한 움직임이 여러번 강하게 등장한다면 과열로 판단하고 리스크 관리를 생각해야 합니다.

Start here: Get a @phantom wallet its free - on your mobile or desktop - it supports all blockchain networks so you have a wallet with a QR code for people to pay you instantly from any network in any crypto. IMO: Just use $USDC (@circle) or $USDT (@tether) on @solana or @SuiNetwork You dont need @Venmo, @CashApp, @PayPal or any of the rent seeking intermedieries between your money and the things you pay for. They all die today. Once you start using crypto instead of bank money and cards you soon learn which networks are best to store and transact Stable Coins on. The fast ones, the cheap ones, the widely accepted ones. The ones that dont FEEL like a bank. You will learn fast. Earn crypto, accept crypto, pay in crypto, move off banking. Learn defi, become your own bank. Thank me later.

Asteroid Psyche 16 has been found to contain gold reserves worth $700 quintillion. That's enough to make everyone on Earth billionaires.