Quant Trader & Market Strategist. Collector of vintage watches. 🚴🏽📈✨
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RichardAll Trades retweeted
In my view, a broadly diversified 60/20/20 model continues to make sense. The chess pieces are always moving, and currently it’s Bitcoin and commodities in the lead, followed by the Mag 7 which has perked up in recent weeks. At the bottom are (what else?) long yields.
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The differential is the tell here. ~12 new highs against ~30 new lows while $SPY sits near highs means a handful of names are carrying the move. That concentration pattern historically resolves lower more often than not.
$SPY - New Highs aren't sticking....they're sporadic and failing.
If they were sticking you would see new high expansion....we're seeing the opposite.
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I'm watching the same divergence. The mechanism that matters: CCC issuers have minimal refinancing capacity at these spreads. When the 2026-27 maturity wall gets priced, equity compression follows. Equities converge to credit, not the reverse.
Junk bonds continue to sound the alarm.
CCC-rated junk bond spreads are widening while the S&P 500 remains near its August peak.
Historically, when these markets diverge, stocks have eventually caught up with the trend in junk spreads. And the bigger the divergence, the bigger the potential catch-up.
This is a chart we'll be watching closely.
See 18 charts sounding an alarm in the markets: ow.ly/zE1g50ZRtLf
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RichardAll Trades retweeted
.@ckaiwu says Amazon (AMZN) has the "most interesting setup" among the Mag 7 stocks today.
He analyzes $AMZN's recent performance, CapEx spending, and AI demand outlook with @sam_vadas, while @G_Tsilis offers an example options trade.
For more market news, tune in at: SchwabNetwork.com/?CID=SM:Tw…
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Crude above $93 is a geopolitics trade, not a fundamentals trade. Demand hasn't moved and the ceasefire didn't hold. I'd size for headline risk here, not inventory data.
#US Stock Market – #CORPORATE NEWS on 25th SEPTEMBER 2026
🔹 ExxonMobil $XOM and Chevron $CVX move active as benchmark crude oil prices rebound above $93 per barrel following geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
🔹 Apple $AAPL remains under watch following updates on supply chain allocation and product production targets ahead of the peak holiday quarter.
🔹 Lockheed Martin $LMT and General Dynamics $GD draw steady buying interest as defense contract deployments continue expanding.
🔹 Microsoft $MSFT and Alphabet $GOOGL attract institutional volume as enterprise adoption rates for cloud-hosted AI tools show steady growth.
#USMarkets #WallStreet #CorporateNews #StockMarketUpdate #Nvidia #NVDA #Tesla #TSLA #Apple #AAPL
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When a view is that crowded it stops being a forecast and becomes a positioning snapshot. I'd rather fade the USD short base precisely because it was the consensus trade. And MS admitting capitulation this late is the confirmation.
Dollar weakness was THE most consensus view of the Street. Virtually everyone held it, and most still do, but at least MS is throwing in the towel here.
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The Boomer net-worth thesis has a precedent problem: negative saving rates showed up in 2005-2007 and reverted violently once home equity stopped rising. My question isn't whether they can spend from net worth, it's whether the asset side holds.
Consumer spending keeps growing even as disposable income falls. The saving rate is heading toward zero, then negative by 2030.
🔒 Members-Only
quicktak.es/njvi
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The permit chart is the one that matters. My read: a 30%+ drawdown from cycle peak has preceded every postwar housing recession. No oversupply to work off this time, but no demand tailwind either. Builders are pricing for a longer trough, not a bounce.
My serious post of the day.
US housing market conditions remain extremely weak, with little to no sign of improvement.
The weight on US homebuilders remains
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Valid concern. I keep core US exposure but run a diversification sleeve into sovereigns that can self-fund without external borrowing. The UAE's $2.5T across ADIA, Mubadala, ADQ is the cleanest case study.
Treasury yields going higher is a reminder that the national debt is now above $40 trillion, and we are still running a $2T deficit annually
Unless we change course, we are going to run into a brick wall very soon
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RichardAll Trades retweeted
Exactly…we do not know yet! More worry for folks.
Did you know the NYSE data includes preferred stock, closed end funds and other interest sensitive names? (Yellow)
Green is common stocks only, looks different. Lows expand during the pullback.
Does it matter? We don’t know yet
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I'm watching the 2yr here. Up ~155bp since 02/27 vs ~126bp on the 10yr. This is front-end repricing of the policy path, not term premium. The market is doubting the disinflation trajectory, and every close above 4.90 narrows the Fed's options.
US interest rates closed today at the highest levels post US attack on Iran on 02/28.
US 10-yr is 5.1981% in tonight's trading to 8:08pm ET. Today, US 10-yr was up to 5.1978% to close on 09/24, which is the highest 10-yr close post US attack Iran.
Closes:
09/24: 5.1978%
09/23: 5.1142%
09/22: 4.9613%
09/21: 4.9510%
09/18: 4.9961%
09/17: 4.9304%
09/16: 5.0225%
09/15: 5.0019%
09/14: 4.9875%
09/11: 4.9669%
09/10: 4.9626%
09/09: 4.8406%
09/08: 4.7882%
09/07: Labor Day
09/04: 4.7821%
09/03: 4.7680%
09/02: 4.7780%
09/01: 4.7981%
08/31: 4.7500%
08/28: 4.7180%
08/27: 4.6762%
08/26: 4.6465%
08/25: 4.6288%
08/24: 4.6961%
07/31: 4.7347%
06/30: 4.4652%
05/29: 4.4355%
04/30: 4.3706%
03/31: 4.3166%
02/27: 3.9375% before US attacked Iran.
US 2-yr is 4.9056% in tonight's trading to 8:11pm ET. Today, US 2-yr was up to 4.9243% to close on 09/24, which is the highest 2-yr close post US attack on Iran.
Closes:
09/24: 4.9243%
09/23: 4.8973%
09/22: 4.7535%
09/21: 4.7462%
09/18: 4.7443%
09/17: 4.6641%
09/16: 4.7359%
09/15: 4.6628%
09/14: 4.6578%
09/11: 4.6254%
09/10: 4.5856%
09/09: 4.4295%
09/08: 4.3936%
09/07: Labor Day
09/04: 4.3661%
09/03: 4.3360%
09/02: 4.3690%
09/01: 4.3998%
08/31: 4.3415%
08/28: 4.3434%
08/27: 4.2320%
08/26: 4.2093%
08/25: 4.1741%
08/24: 4.2273%
07/31: 4.2912%
06/30: 4.1723%
05/29: 4.0041%
04/30: 3.8689%
03/31: 3.7930%
02/27: 3.3749% before US attacked Iran.
Thx @business
#oott
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Pattern has merit, but this MOVE spike mirrors the March 2026 move, and that one took 4 sessions to peak, not 2.5. Rate vol repricing runs on its own clock. A bounce is plausible, but I wouldn't size on the day count. Watching the basis instead.
Time for the infamous 2 1/2 day rule....??
I abhor market timing, but it is my experience that when $HIT happens, the market peaks and reverses 2.5 days after ignition.
Day 1 is shock
Day 2 is panic, prayer and a call from Risk Mngt
Mid-Day 3, capitulation and the position is closed out.
Over the past two days, the (blue line) MOVE Index has gapped from 78ish to 104ish, while the (pink line) UST bond future is down 2 1/2 points (22bps).
Do we bounce tomorrow before the morning snack ?
@profplum99 @EconguyRosie @biancoresearch @dampedspring @jam_croissant @LukeGromen @DariusDale42
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Whatever the framing, the long end is doing the damage here. Mortgage rates track sovereign duration, not policy signals, and I'd point to global term premium repricing as the main driver. At 7.45%, affordability math for any leveraged buyer is unforgiving.
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US AI buildout is hitting grid and financing constraints, while the Stargate work with G42 in Abu Dhabi sits on sovereign-backed power and capital. I'd frame it as complementary exposure, not a substitute. The constraint is power and funding.
Oracle market value falls as data center project notice raises questions
Oracle’s market value has reportedly declined after news emerged about a notice connected to a planned data center project in New Mexico.
The development has drawn attention because of potential concerns surrounding the project’s progress and future impact. The notice was linked to the data center development by Blue Owl Capital, a company involved in financing and infrastructure investments.
Oracle has been expanding its cloud infrastructure and investing heavily in artificial intelligence data centers to compete in the growing cloud and AI market. Large-scale data center projects require significant investment, power capacity, and long-term planning.
The situation highlights the increasing pressure on major technology companies as they build the infrastructure needed to support rising demand for AI services and cloud computing.
#Oracle #CloudComputing #ArtificialIntelligence #DataCenters #TechnologyNews #AI #TechIndustry
Read more: TechAmerica.ai
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I'd note OpenAI's capex now runs through G42 via Stargate. Credibility questions travel across partnerships fast. I'd expect allocation committees to ask that question before regulators do.
“.. By Jensen’s logic we ought at this point be shutting down OpenAI. Their software has repeatedly been shown to be reckless, and because they have consistently covered things up we cannot trust them.”
@GaryMarcus
garymarcus.substack.com/p/i-…
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Zimbabwe's gold already routes through Dubai in volume. My read: a CEPA that formalizes settlement and compliance rails is the only piece that matters here, not the political consultations. I'd ignore the ceremony and watch the trade terms.
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For Zimbabwe, stronger UAE relations can open more opportunities for investment, exports, tourism, infrastructure development, technology, skills and business partnerships, creating avenues for jobs and wider economic participation.
The two countries will also strengthen coordination on international issues, including through the United Nations Security Council.
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Partnerships that open markets. Investment that creates opportunities. Cooperation that delivers.
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The India call is the one that matters. When we evaluated ADGM fund structures, India was the recurring underlying. Growth is the easy part; routing is the edge.
Bloomberg just mapped the next 30 years of the global economy. Growth slows to 3.2%.
Most rich countries grow even slower.
Only Japan and Sweden escape.
And India?
Its rise will be the biggest shift in global power since China.
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Movements in short- and medium-term yields largely reflect changing interest-rate expectations, which are systematically inconsistent across maturities and horizons, from Pooya Molavi, Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, and Andrea Vedolin nber.org/papers/w35766
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