FULL BREAKDOWN - How Each Step Lowers Rates & Why Investors/Taxpayers Still Win (For BOTH Fannie & Freddie):
1. CUT G-FEES & LLPAs TEMPORARILY - BOTH (Instant 0.30-0.50% off borrower rate)
G-fee = annual insurance (~50-65bps) both charge lenders, passed to borrower. LLPA = upfront fee by FICO/LTV. 2022 FHFA added ~50bps extra on BOTH. Cutting = instant payment relief for homebuyers. How they still profit: VOLUME > MARGIN. Lower fee on $2T volume > higher fee on $1T frozen market.
2. CUT CAPITAL RULE 4% → 2% - BOTH (Free ~$150B+ combined to buy MBS)
ERCF 4% is worst-case buffer. Banks hold 4-5% on riskier assets. 2% is safe for agency MBS. Frees capital for BOTH to support market and buy MBS. Reversible to 2.25-2.5% when rates fall.
3. RAISE RETAINED PORTFOLIO $225B → $500B EACH - BOTH (Tighten spreads 25-40bps)
Current $225B cap is per company. Fed QT selling $35B MBS/month keeps spreads wide = high rates. Let BOTH absorb supply (up to $1T combined), spreads tighten = lower 30yr directly for homebuyers.
4. MAKE RETAINED EARNINGS PERMANENT - BOTH (Fannie $116.5B + Freddie ~$60B = ~$176B Combined = Core Capital)
Right now if EITHER retains earnings, liquidation grows $1 for $1 per Letter Agreement. Should count as core capital for BOTH, not grow Treasury claim. Instant recap for BOTH, no taxpayer cost. This capital is what lets them cut fees for homebuyers.
5. DEEM SENIOR PREFERRED PAID - BOTH (Drew ~$193B Combined, Paid $300B+ Combined, Liquidation ~$385B Combined)
Technical fix for BOTH. Drew ~$191B total, Paid $300B+ dividends, Liquidation now ~$385B combined with add-ons. Treasury already made ~$100B profit. Deem face paid for BOTH, credit overage to capital. Ends overhang. Taxpayer still holds 79.9% warrants in BOTH = upside.
6. UPLIST BOTH TO NYSE + EXPAND CRT - BOTH (Raise $75B+ each, $150B+ combined)
OTC can't raise efficiently. NYSE lets BOTH raise equity/preferred at 5% not 8%. CRT sells credit risk to private (Blackstone/PIMCO) lowering capital need for BOTH.
RESULT - MAIN STREET & HOMEBUYERS:
This is about homebuyers first. Lower 30yr 0.75%-1.25% = ~$300-$600/month lower payment on a $400k-$500k loan. That's the difference between renting forever and owning. For first-time buyers, move-up buyers, and families stuck on sidelines - this brings them back.
Housing moves again = builders
$DHI $LEN $PHM build, construction jobs back,
$HD $LOW furniture movers title companies busy.
Counter-cyclical & reversible: Trade margin for volume while rates high. When rates fall, FHFA can raise fees/capital 10-20bps on 2x volume. Homebuyers win NOW, workers win NOW,
$FNMA $FMCC investors & taxpayers win bigger LATER via volume + warrant value.
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Illustrative estimates only, based on my own calc from 10-Qs, FHFA ERCF, Fed H.4.1. Actuals may vary. Policy proposal for discussion only. Not financial advice, IMO. Not affiliated with FHFA, Treasury, Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.