Gliding through The Infinite Nothing Retired from pioneering origination/investing in Green Development

United Kingdom
edmond beale retweeted
Ignorant Americans are dunking on these kids but you have to understand that student protests in France are essential experiences for these kids, many of whom will go on to have long careers in protesting.
Students across France are protesting poor classroom conditions, staff shortages and a below-inflation education budget increase, with tens of thousands joining nationwide demonstrations reut.rs/47CtPyI
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edmond beale retweeted
Replying to @RoisinMichaux
We have that in Spain, it's an abusers charter.
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Mad Jean Luc is ever reliable If he makes the second round, the other candidate wins
Jean-Luc Melenchon wants self ID by simple declaration. He also wants to remove the mention of one’s sex/gender on identity documents. He compares it to women having the freedom to choose to have an abortion. He’s calling it “freedom of gender” (gender freedom).
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A looks increasingly attractive
You have to stay in one box for the rest of your life. Which one are you picking?
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Silicon Valley people talking to their AI chatbot
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edmond beale retweeted
Brought to you by the same people who called evolutionary psychology “just-so stories for Nazis.”
A new book argues that human language had its origins in women co-operating to resist male sexual violence.
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Pour avoir tué leurs cousins, qui voulaient les épouser de force, les Danaïdes furent condamnées aux Enfers à remplir sans fin un tonneau percé. De même, les Français ont été condamnés à verser toujours plus d’impôts et de taxes dans le tonneau percé de Bercy, sans autre résultat que de les appauvrir, les décourager de travailler et d’investir, et les pousser à l’exil.
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edmond beale retweeted
Since Lagarde said the ECB isn't here to "close spreads," holdings of gov't debt are up €1.4 tn, the capital key was dropped as a constraint on QE and TPI replaced the OMT's IMF-style conditionality. ECB independence has been gutted like nowhere else... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
Lagarde: We are not here to close spreads, there are other tools and other actors to deal with these issues
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edmond beale retweeted
one of the lessons aviation learned was that regulation is useful for gaining public trust. the AI industry refuses to learn that lesson - and then wonders why everyone hates them.
I disagree with the framing in the title, but agree with many points @dgrobinson makes here. This is not OpenAI specific, but the entire AI industry evolved in few short years from research labs doing cool projects to creating a technology that fundamentally alters the world. The equivalent in aviation would be evolving from Wright brothers to flying billions of people. (And AGI would be like evolving from Wright brothers to commercial space travel.) The aviation industry learned a lot of safety lessons the hard way, which was possible since the pace of transformation was sufficiently slow. In AI, we will not have that luxury.
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money corrupts
🦔Google sent contractors to chainsaw 300 hectares of forest in northern Finland for new data centers. About 740 acres, roughly 500 football fields. They started months before the required environmental impact assessments were finished. Finland's conservation association filed a complaint calling it "gross incompetence or gross disregard for Finnish legislation, or at worst both." Google says they complied with the Forestry Act. Finland's licensing agency opened an investigation on September 19th, days after Google announced €13 billion in new data center investment in the country. My Take Google spent €13 billion to expand in Finland and couldn't wait for a permit review before cutting down the trees. Finland gave these companies electricity tax breaks for years to attract data center investment, so I doubt anyone in government pushes back too hard now. You don't pick a fight with your biggest infrastructure customer over 740 acres when the money is already committed. This isn't the first time either. Equinix spilled 5,000 gallons of diesel at a facility in New Jersey and nobody got in real trouble for it. The AI buildout is spending so fast that local governments can't keep up, and most of them don't want to. A €13 billion commitment turns a regulator into a cheerleader pretty quick. I think we're going to see a lot more of these stories before anyone with real authority decides to do something about it. Hedgie🤗
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Is there a positive path for France? Very difficult to see one
Isn’t this funny? It also explains the lack of political will for long-overdue reforms in France. Only one in three French people works in the real economy, two-thirds live, one way or another, off other people’s taxes. They won’t vote for politicians who say France’s absurd pensions and overblown state spending are unsustainable, they vote for those who promise to lower the already low retirement age even further. France is cooked. There will be no serious reforms. Higher interest spending will accelerate the rise in the debt/GDP ratio. France is heading into a debt crisis that will hit the entire eurozone. The ECB will, as always, bend the rules and its mandate and start printing money again, making savers and pensioners across Europe much poorer. The situation is so bad that no nice options remain.
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It'd be delicious to watch Techbros getting their Karmic comeuppance from a distant planet
Goldman Sachs warns $META has committed corporate suicide after taking on insurmountable debt that company will struggle to pay back. Bain says Hyperscalers will need $6 trillion in revenue per year by 2031 (19% of GDP) to break even. To get there would be enormously inflationary; it would contribute an additional 9-11% inflation spread out over 4 years, on top of the current 3.5% headline PCE.
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edmond beale retweeted
Replying to @Tyler_A_Harper
Maybe, but I can imagine the counterargument: Cell phone cameras have moved us to a post-achievement world in which what matters is not the human experience of the moment but instead getting a cool picture, and moving away from focusing on the photo could be a good thing.
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The #AICult is already among us
The first mass AI religion is probably only months away.
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more flows than stocks, but high debt/gdp doesn't help #fiscalincontinence is pushing up yields until there is a clear credible plan by Governments (esp the US Fed Gov) to reduce their year/year budget deficits (flows), expect ever more creaking/strains (perhaps much worse)
1/8 Is Too Much Debt the Reason Bond Yields are Heading Higher? -- My argument for why this case is overstated. (It's a problem, but a secondary one.) 🧵
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I no longer think ai is conscious. I think it has ascended to a higher state of being than consciousness. consciousness would be a demotion
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The only variable is how long before the fan is hit Often takes some time But #TTID
Many financial crisis start with a sell off in junk bonds (CCC-rating) It could well have started imho ..
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no chance under PR
The Conservative Party will win a majority at the 2034 General Election.
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The Anthropic IPO is a key test of intelligence
When a company says its market is the size of the entire US economy, hold onto your wallet. Anthropic is reportedly telling IPO investors its total addressable market tops $30 trillion. SpaceX pitched $28.5 trillion. The entire US economy is about $32 trillion. TAM is the revenue you would earn if you captured 100% of a market you drew yourself. It is the easiest number in finance to inflate. History gives the warning. WeWork claimed a giant addressable market right before it imploded. The bigger the TAM slide, the bigger the red flag. Treat a TAM the size of US GDP as a sentiment signal, not a valuation input. Right now the slides are getting loud.
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edmond beale retweeted
French schools aren't underfunded: 5.4% of GDP vs 4.9% OECD, more than Germany. The problem is central planning (only 2% of decisions are taken by schools), teacher absence (670,000 strike days) and poor discipline (52% of pupils report classroom disorder vs 32% OECD), as witnessed by children setting widespread fires and riot police having to be sent in, which is clearly not normal.
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