TISNSTAFL retweeted
When a company fails to deliver products that satisfy the customers who are paying for them, the customers stop showing up. The company loses its revenue, people get fired, and the whole thing eventually shuts down. It can be a stressful system to operate in, but it works beautifully to align incentives and create real accountability.
In NYC Public Schools, that beautiful system gets completely inverted. When a school fails to deliver quality education, the customers (taxpayers) are forced to pay more into it through additional funding measures that get triggered to help lift up the underperformers. The highly-political, aggressively-unionized nature of the operation shields responsible parties from consequences, and the grift just continues on forever.
Despite her experiences and the vulnerability she showed in her essay, Nikole Hannah-Jones still doesn't appreciate any of this.
I am fairly certain that the unnamed incompetent principle of PS307 in Nikole Hannah-Jones's NYT story was Stephanie Carroll.
Since then she has been promoted to a Director of Literacy position within @NYCDOE where she is paid $175k/yr.
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IF YOU LIKED REGULATORY CAPTURE YOU ARE GOING TO LOVE REGULATORY CAPTURE WITH CARTEL-LIKE BEHAVIOR.
I agree with Dario that we need to pace the frontier. This has been a primary topic of discussions we've had at OpenAI in recent weeks.
Committing to having independent evaluators with employee-like access is a great idea, and we will do the same. We'll have more to share soon.
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TISNSTAFL retweeted
100% agree. Using LLMs to write for you is going to shrink your capacity to verbalize your thoughts and generate sharp responses when challenged. Much better to use them to stress-test your views and reveal your blindspots.
People need to do less LLM written posts/emails. They should be using LLMs to roast their ideas. For example:
"This is my theory of how the world works. Roast it, point out inconsistencies, empirical counterpoints, counterfactual possibilities, etc"
it's easy. Costs zero.
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TISNSTAFL retweeted
Dolly Parton's passing reminds us yet again that legacy is not what we've done but who we have been.
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Went out boating with my son and nephew to see if we can get a beluga whale but we just saw 5 polar bears, try again after work
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Current outstanding supply at Market Value:
U.S. Treasuries w/ maturity >= 10 years***: $4.37T
Apple shares: $4.62T
In other words, just one single stock in the US equity market is bigger and heavier in weight in the global portfolio than the entire long-term treasury market.
***includes treasuries held by the Fed, and also TIPS.
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One of many categories where a good item can be ordered online, but the stuff on the shelf in your local stores is all junk.
Tricon and Rainbird still sell heavy duty all metal options.
I work hard. I spend my money carefully so it’s there when my family needs it.
Why should we have to buy things over and over again so that someone else gets rich off cutting corners.
Enough.
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Real talk?
Don't worry about why that burrito costs $20
Go learn why your $20 bill is only worth a burrito
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Victor Niederhoffer - may his memory be a blessing.
The effect of this great man's early work on quantitative trading cannot be measured. His track record for some 20 years was unmatched. He told me over lunch circa. 2014 at The Harvard Club in NYC about all his mistakes - not a word about his wins.
He taught me it was almost always better to catch the 'other side' of the distribution [IYKYK]. He chastised me at times for not going for the kill when the edge was strong and growing. He taught that each speculation stands alone and the conditions that created it would never precisely repeat.
My favourite two sayings of his:
"..The mouse with one hole is quickly cornered.." - Have more than one way to exit a trade.
"..When you take into account the bid-ask spreads on out-of-the-money options, the edge is thousands of times less than zero.."
Goodbye. I love you.
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Fascinating divergent perspective here from @TotemMacro. Overall piece is excellent, highly recommended.
On a one-off basis, a recent explainer.
Originally published July 7th, 2026.
See important disclosures & disclaimers.
info@totemmacro.com
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TISNSTAFL retweeted
Treasury has now spent all the ammo in their Exchange Stabilization Fund. They sold Euros to buy Yen because that's all they have in the ESF. They can probably find other ways, but unless interest rate differentials change it's all a waste.
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The US is struggling to bring factories back from China but hey straight to the moon seems plausable.
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This is like the Enron CEO cursing at the analyst on the earnings call. Never a good sign.
One of the highlights of the Warsh Fed has been watching stenographers posing as journalists, like the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos, reduced to reporting Fed backroom gossip because they’re incapable of performing real economic or monetary policy analysis without being spoon-fed.
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It's got what plants crave.
The President promotes Scotts Miracle-Gro in the middle of an Oval Office event:
The best grass you can get. Scotts, you know Scotts? Scott's Miracle-Gro, they're doing it. They do great grass. I got to give him a plug because they did the White House for free.
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Hard to even process -- a president selling market-moving information to banks and wealthy investors in advance of everyone else, and personally pocketing hundreds of millions of dollars from it. This alone is more worthy of impeachment than 100 Watergate cover-ups.
BREAKING: Trump Media has officially launched its new paid data service, providing faster access to Truth Social posts from President Trump.
The new service is called "Truth API" which gives firms "a direct, licensed, real-time feed of the platform’s most market-moving Truths," the company's CEO said in a press release.
The service reportedly costs as much as $100,000/month.
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