Seeking out non-consensus analysis and commentary across macro, geopolitics, and technology.

United Kingdom
Jensen Huang has a message for the UK
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Mark Zuckerberg pretending to enjoy Guinness is my new favourite thing.
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The obvious answer is that Meta has amazing products that provide massive value to its users - for free. You use a product because of its usefulness, not because you like the CEO. bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq8r…
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About 40,000 people die of sepsis in Britain. Palantir's tech cut sepsis deaths by 70% in one Florida hospital. Andy Burnham is being urged to join the new wave of anti-tech populism. It would be the biggest mistake of his premiership. My Times column: times-comment.com/techpop
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Walshy retweeted
The timing of yesterday's ECB interest rate hike is almost as bad as the timing of a The Economist's frontpage on oil.
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Walshy retweeted
"Peter Thiel says, you have to be contrarian but right to be an entrepreneur. So, you have to be comfortable looking stupid for a long time. When I was calling those banks and saying, "Hey, we're a crypto company. We want to do this," they would hang up on me. Or I'd go pitch the 30th venture investor and get a no. Or the thousandth employee we tried to hire or whatever. We're willing to be misunderstood for a long time. And then you slowly start to have these breakthroughs. If you look at Uber, they were fighting for a decade to just be like, yeah, it's actually better and safer than a cab — and the entrenched interests were fighting them. Or Airbnb with the hotels. Self-driving cars. Everything that's truly innovative and breakthrough is going to upset an entrenched incumbent, eventually intersect with the government, and just piss off some segment of the population who are like... "How dare you question the status quo." — @brian_armstrong
My conversation with @brian_armstrong, co-founder and CEO of @coinbase and @newlimit. 0:00 Crypto Power in DC 0:25 Market Structure Clarity 1:39 SEC Lawfare Origins 5:49 Suing the Regulator 9:09 Winning the SEC Case 11:11 Long Term Founder Mindset 12:20 Autism and Focus 15:04 Mission First Company Culture 21:10 Rebuilding From Scratch 23:05 Follow Your Nose 25:20 From Side Hustles to Coinbase 30:07 Argentina and Bitcoin Spark 32:33 Airbnb to Coinbase Nights 36:25 Finding a Co-founder 37:35 YC Without a Co-founder 38:41 Finding the Perfect Partner 40:18 Losing Money Per Trade 41:23 Support Backlog Chaos 43:29 Banking and Compliance Gauntlet 47:47 Raising Fast to Survive 51:36 Mission Values and Inspiration 57:54 Hiring for Spikes 1:02:14 Centralized vs Decentralized 1:05:51 From Bitcoin Wedge to Super App 1:07:59 How Coinbase Runs Today 1:11:00 Decision Speed and Risk 1:12:43 Internal Venture Bets 1:14:46 Funding Ideas Internally 1:15:18 Coinbase Marketing Experiments 1:16:56 Internet Native Shareholder Updates 1:21:58 Media Diet and Going Direct 1:26:47 Building a New Industry 1:31:44 Starting New Limit Longevity 1:36:17 CEO Stress and Routines 1:40:59 AI Agents at Coinbase 1:44:35 Base App Explained 1:46:47 Other Bets and SEZs 1:49:21 Closing Thanks Includes paid partnerships.
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Stanley Kubrick was frustrated with the British crew's frequent tea breaks while working on Full Metal Jacket.
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Walshy retweeted
Jensen Huang: "People with really high expectations have very low resilience." "I think one of my great advantages is that I have very low expectations. And I mean that. Most of the Stanford graduates have very high expectations. And you deserve to have high expectations because you came from a great school. You were very successful. You're top of your class. Obviously, you were able to pay for tuition. And then you're graduating from one of the finest institutions on the planet. You're surrounded by other kids that are just incredible. You naturally have very high expectations. People with very high expectations have very low resilience. And unfortunately, resilience matters in success. I don't know how to teach it to you except for I hope suffering happens to you. And I was fortunate that I grew up with my parents providing a condition for us to be successful on the one hand, but there were plenty of opportunities for setbacks and suffering. And to this day, I use the phrase pain and suffering inside our company with great glee. And I mean that. Boy, this is going to cause a lot of pain and suffering. And I mean that in a happy way, because you want to train, you want to refine the character of your company. You want greatness out of them. And greatness is not intelligence. Greatness comes from character, and character isn't formed out of smart people. It's formed out of people who suffered. And so if I could wish upon you, I don't know how to do it. For all of you Stanford students, I wish upon you ample doses of pain and suffering."
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Walshy retweeted
Folks (but particularly investors) have to make sure they are not linearly extrapolating things that Trump does or says. Remember when he turned on Zelensky in the White House? How was that resolved? With some silly rare earth deal... I suspect the same happens with 🇬🇱
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Hoover Senior Fellow @NFergus argues that the radical left's protests expose a moral double standard—mobilizing against Israel while remaining largely silent as Iran violently represses its own citizens. GoodFellows on X: x.com/HooverInst/status/2011… YouTube: youtu.be/sGdLEurub_4
Iran's streets are filled with protesters. The regime is responding with force. On a new episode of GoodFellows, Hoover Senior Fellows @NFergus, @JohnHCochrane, and @LTGHRMcMaster discuss the following issues and more: • Why do mass uprisings rarely topple hardened regimes? • How can cyber pressure and oil sanctions weaken Iran? • What do Trump's Nixonian echoes reveal about US strategy? • Why is the next phase of global power taking shape now? Watch the full conversation moderated by host @BillWhalenCA on X:
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Walshy retweeted
I’ll gift 5 free monthly subs to people who like + RT this post. You’ve got until I hit 50k. Will tag winners once I hit the mark. If you’re already a sub and win, I’ll extend your access.
Going to turn this account private at 50k for a short while
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Walshy retweeted
Some people genuinely believe business owners shouldn’t get any tax incentives above PAYE employees. As if the person who takes zero risk, has no money invested, gets holiday pay, sick pay, a pension, protections, and guaranteed wages should be treated the same as the person who puts everything on the line with no safety net at all. Running a business means years of uncertainty, sleepless nights, personal sacrifice, missed time with family, no days off, no benefits, no guaranteed income, and the very real chance of losing everything. Meanwhile, someone with a stable job turns up, does their contracted hours, and money lands in their account every month like clockwork. And they think the rewards should be identical? This entitlement mentality is exactly why Britain is hostile to entrepreneurs. If you want jobs, innovation, and growth, you reward the people who create them, not pretend they’re the same as employees who carry none of the risk.
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youtu.be/OG57rWI7o4o?si=bI69… The bubble in calling for an AI bubble is about to burst now that @Channel4News and other British mainstream news broadcasters, that are usually completely oblivious to investing news, are releasing themed podcasts on the subject.
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Has there ever been a period in markets where consensus narrative has switched from 'end of the world recession' to 'massive speculative bubble' in as little as 4 months.
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The FCA in the U.K banned bitcoin and crypto ETNs (our equivalent of ETFs) for retail investors in January 2021. Bitcoin was around $30k. They then allowed institutions access in May 2024 at $68k. They will now give retail investors access from October 8th 2025. I feel so protected. Thank you for protecting me from making money.
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Capital controls continue for the UK. Not only have the UK ETNs been delayed. Yes, it’s approaching 2026 and retail still can’t buy Bitcoin products. Brokerage platforms such as @HLInvest are restricting portfolios to as little as 10% and offering trading early next year! The analysis they have on Bitcoin is something I would expect from 2017 maybe.
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Would love to hear your thoughts @RosenvoldGeo & @AndreasSteno regarding the latest French government collapse later on Macro Monday. Thanks.
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Thanks for your thoughts on Circle @rektmando - sold half my position straight after the AMA on Friday. Instant value after upgrading to @RealVision alpha! Nice one 👍
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Hey @AndreasSteno, I'm considering subscribing to Steno Macro Connoisseur. Is the research you publish on Real Vision Plus and Pro Macro part of the Steno Connoisseur subscription? Thanks Tom
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