Veteran-Institutional Hedge Fund trader (30 years) -Tech stocks-BJJ-2A-Metal-Jesus--I unfollow Kirk conspiracy morons

(Warning: long rant) My liberal friends are completely oblivious about how radicalizing the last week has been for tens of millions of normal Americans. Zero clue. I’m not talking about people who are “online”; I mean regular, everyday Americans. “Normies.” People who scroll through Facebook posts and Instagram reels from the Dutch Bros drive thru line. Political moderates who have water cooler chats about Mahomes touchdowns and Bon Jovi concerts, not Twitter threads or Rachel Maddow monologues. Millions of them. Tens of millions. They’re logging on, they’re engaging, and they’re furious. And I’ll be candid: They blame you guys. They blame the left. Regardless of whether you believe it to be justified, they think you’re the bad guys here. And they are reacting accordingly. I can already hear some of you racing toward the comments to start screeching in moral indignation, so I’m going to be blunt: Shut up and listen to what I’m telling you. Your movement will lose any semblance of relevance if you don’t develop some small measure of self-awareness, and—absent someone force-feeding you bitter medicine—you guys collectively lack the humility to do this on your own. Here are the facts: Fact 1. Tens of millions of Americans started the week seeing a 23-year-old blonde woman—a young woman in whom virtually every parent watching pictured their own daughter—stabbed in the neck by a career criminal. These people then found out the murderer had been released from jail 14 times over. Fact 2. Two days later, tens of millions of Americans watched a video of Charlie Kirk get murdered speaking to college students. Millions of these people knew who Charlie was; millions of them didn’t. Upon seeing the video, however, these normal Americans from across the land and across the political spectrum agreed that he was the victim of a terrible, fundamentally unjustifiable crime, and their hearts broke in sympathy for his family. Good people who had never even heard the name Charlie Kirk before wept. Fact 3. Immediately after seeing the footage of a peaceful young man get shot in the neck, these same people logged onto Facebook and Instagram (remember, we are talking about regular Americans, not perpetually online Twitter or Bluesky users) and saw some of their local nurses, school teachers, college administrators, and retail workers celebrating this horrific crime. Not just defending it, but cheering it. These are all facts. You may not like the implications of these facts, and we can certainly debate the underlying causes thereof, but, indisputably, they are nevertheless factual statements. Here’s what it means for you, the Democrats reading this: These normal, middle-of-the-road, non-political citizens just become politically active. They realized that politics cares about them, even if they don’t particularly care about politics. After watching Iryna Zarutska and Charlie Kirk both bleed out from the neck, they think their lives and the physical safety of their families—the bedrock of human society, the foundation of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs—depend on political activation, whether they desire it or not. These people are now sprinting—not jogging, not walking, but racing—to the right. Because they blame you guys for everything that just happened. When they see footage of Decarlos Brown stabbing a Ukrainian refugee to death, they don’t see just one demon-possessed man. They picture every university administrator, HR bureaucrat, and DEI apparatchik that ever lectured them about systemic racism, the “carceral state,” or the need to release violent crime suspects without bail in the name of social justice. They then think back to conversations they’ve had with their cop friends—their buddy from high school who quit the force after getting tired of being called a racist, their friend at the local YMCA who vents about having to release career criminals because Soros-funded prosecutors aren’t willing to file charges—and they realize everything the left has told them over the last five years has been utter bullshit. And they blame you. Because, even if you count yourself as a moderate Democrat, your party supported the district attorneys, city council members, and mayors that let fictitious concerns about mental health and racial justice supersede very real concerns for their family’s safety. When these Americans see blood erupt from the side of Charlie Kirk’s neck, they don’t see just a martyred political activist. They think of every extreme leftist they’ve ever met who (1) calls anyone to the right of Hillary Clinton a fascist and (2) constantly jokes—“jokes”—about punching Nazis and “bashing the fash.” They realize that there really do exist people who wish to see them dead for their moderately conservative political beliefs, their Christian faith, and even the color of their skin. They ask themselves if the violence visited upon Charlie might one day show up on their own doorstep. And they blame you. Because, even if you’re just a center-of-the-road liberal, you lacked the courage to police your own ranks. You let modern-day Maoist red guards run loose across every facet of society, and what started with social-media struggle sessions has now turned to 30-06 bullet holes. When these Americans log onto social media and see their neighbors justifying, celebrating, glorifying murder, they realize that some who walk among them are soulless ghouls at best, literally demon-possessed at worst. These people—whether they faithfully attend church every Sunday or only attend with relatives once a year, on Christmas Eve—start talking about things like spiritual warfare. They implicitly understand that no normal human casually celebrates the mortal demise of a peaceful person. And they blame you. Because, even if you condemned Charlie Kirk’s murder, they probably haven’t seen you condemn those in your own movement who cheered it on. They view you as complicit in allowing heartless fellow travelers to celebrate death, and it repulses them. For all of these situations, what has your response been? Nothing but bullshit. In response to Iryna Zarutska bleeding out on the floor of a train, you post bullshit statistics about reductions in reported crime, when everyone who’s ever been to a major urban center in the last decade knows that actual crime has skyrocketed, only for victims not to waste their time reporting it to cops that don’t have the manpower to respond and prosecutors that seek to downgrade as many felonies as possible to misdemeanor citations. In response to a 31-year-old man taking a bullet to the neck in front of his family, you post nothing but bullshit whataboutism. > “What about January 6th?” (Honest answer: After you let Liz Cheney spend two years operating a star chamber in the House, combined with countless other failed attempts at “lawfare” against Trump, no one cares anymore.) > “What about Mike Lee making a dumb joke on Twitter about some guy in a mask in Minnesota?” (No one outside of Utah, DC, or Twitter knows who Mike Lee even is.) > “What about Paul Pelosi?” (That’s not comparable to Charlie Kirk getting shot, and we all know it. And, again, Paul who?) > “What about regulations on assault rifles?” (That’s not going to get you very far when one of these killers used a knife and the other one used a common hunting rifle.) In response to teachers, healthcare workers, and thousands of other liberals cheering on Charlie’s murder, it’s nothing but more bullshit and misdirection. > “It’s not THAT many people celebrating!” (Yes, it is. Everyone has seen it on their Facebook and Instagram feeds.) > “I thought you guys didn’t support cancel culture.” (We don’t cancel people over their opinions; we’re more than happy to see people lose their jobs—especially their taxpayer-funded jobs—for actively cheering on murder, though. If you can’t see the difference, that’s your own shortcoming.) All bullshit. Not even smart bullshit, but stale, mid-grade, low-IQ bullshit. Ordinary Americans see right through it, and they don’t like how it smells. You probably don’t like hearing this. But you need to hear it. Because I’m right, and, as you reflect on this, you know I’m right. The ranks of my political movement gained millions of righteously angry new members this week. We have a mandate to ensure these crimes never happen again, and that’s exactly what we are now going to do. If you want to keep a seat at the table as we do so, you’d better clean house and start policing your own.
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"Iran-U.S. negotiations in New York have moved beyond initial diplomatic contacts into a more detailed technical phase, with sources in Tehran describing the atmosphere as increasingly positive, Al Jazeera's bureau chief in Tehran, Nourddine Dgheir, reported Friday" cbsnews.com/live-updates/ira…
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This was a planned and purposeful devaluing of your money... This is worse than any tariff - this is downright theft of your wealth by central banks...
The Federal Reserve printed roughly $4 trillion between March 2020 and early 2022, expanding its balance sheet from $4.2 trillion to over $8.9 trillion, and Jerome Powell stood in front of cameras calling the resulting price explosion "transitory." Inflation is a tax. Every dollar created without corresponding production transfers purchasing power from savers to the first spenders. The government and its preferred financial institutions spent those fresh dollars before prices adjusted. You spent them after, at a grocery store already pricing in the damage. By June 2022, CPI hit 9.1 percent, the highest since 1981. Rent, food, used cars, energy: all of it ran hot simultaneously. Monetary expansion redistributes wealth rather than creating it, taking from your pocket to give to whoever holds newly printed money first. Powell's "transitory" call was deliberate. The Fed had every price signal and money supply number available. M2 grew 27 percent in 2020 alone. That expansion predicted exactly what followed. The Fed created this inflation deliberately, financing pandemic-era federal spending that Congress could not politically tax you to fund directly. Printing was the cowardly path. You paid through purchasing power destruction rather than a visible tax line on your return, which is precisely why they preferred it.
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SUPREME COURT LETS TRUMP EXPAND DATABASE FOR VOTER VERIFICATION
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Arch_Angel retweeted
Reuters just blew a hole through the old “this basically doesn’t happen” bullshit. It counted more than 30,000 self-declared non-citizens added to voter rolls in just 12 states since 2000. Then, after publishing the damn number, the conversation immediately shifted to why you supposedly shouldn’t care. Lauren Bis put the contradiction plainly: the media spent years denying that non-citizens register and vote, and now the evidence is forcing the issue into the open. Then came the retreat. First: it doesn’t happen. Then: fine, it happens, but it’s rare. Then Brookings’ Elaine Kamarck: there’s no evidence of “massive numbers” voting. What the hell does “massive” mean? Fifty thousand? A hundred thousand? A million? Reuters found above 30,000 in only twelve states and admitted the data are incomplete. Then came stage four. Asked about proof-of-citizenship requirements, David Becker of the Center for Election Innovation & Research said such a requirement was “unlikely” to help prevent these cases. CEIR’s own data helped Reuters identify the problem. That is one hell of a progression: deny it, minimize it, invent a squishy standard called “massive,” then shrug at tighter verification. And Reuters itself admitted it couldn’t determine how many of these non-citizens actually cast ballots. So the count is real. The registration failures are real. The unknowns are real. The same people who spent years telling everyone the barn was empty are now standing in a field full of horses arguing over whether there are enough of them to justify closing the fucking door. (article below)
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Arch_Angel retweeted
Still very little stress in the high yield credit market. If there was a monster under the bed, it would show up here first imo.
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Arch_Angel retweeted
Though I am negative on AI (for a host of reasons) and I am short $ORCL for alot of other reasons.... the force majeure on Project Jupiter is not a bonafide reason to be negative on the space or on Oracle. Force majeure is typically used by developers in the ordinary course of large construction projects. "A force majeure clause in real estate projects excuses a party from meeting non-monetary contractual deadlines or performance duties due to unforeseeable events beyond their control." Force majeure on large scale construction jobs goes well beyond "acts of god" and includes supply chain and regulatory issues (much like the permitting hurdle this project is facing). The New Mexico project is not being stopped - the force majeure notice is being delivered in the event the power issue takes more time to resolve. Two of the legal stays were already lifted in September. Remember the project is massive and the state contains a population with alot of anti data center people. Construction will likely go on line next year. I covered $ORCL on yesterday's schemissing - but I plan to reshort the stock when cooler heads realize the above (and if the stock rallies back higher).... @HedgieMarkets @michaeljburry @edzitron @SquawkCNBC @cnbcfastmoney @cnbchalftime @KeithMcCullough @Hedgeye_HGRO @Hedgeye_HELS @HedgeyeDJ @gnoble79 @andrewrsorkin @davidfaber @carlquintanilla @TheJudgeCNBC @guyadami @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1 @annmarie @business @Convertbond @pboockvar @Scaramucci @msnbc @maddow @SRuhle @WhitneyTilson @SeabreezeLP @DarioCpx @MorganLBrennan
🦔Oracle sent a force majeure notice on Project Jupiter, its AI data center in New Mexico built for the $400 billion Stargate deal with OpenAI. The campus needs a 17-mile gas pipeline to power its Bloom Energy fuel cells. New Mexico denied the pipeline permits twice. Oracle wants the right to delay payments if the site misses its 2028 opening. $18 billion in project loans are at 89 to 91 cents on the dollar. ORCL fell 5%. My Take Force majeure is for earthquakes and wars. Oracle filed one over a gas permit they got denied twice. A company with $167 billion in debt and a junk-adjacent credit rating just told its development partner it might not pay on time. I think Oracle's balance sheet is worse than the market has priced in, and this notice is the first public admission. Twenty banks lent $18 billion for this project and they can't move the debt. Santander and Jefferies are stuck with more than they planned to hold. That loan assumed Oracle's backlog converts to revenue on schedule, but half the backlog is OpenAI, a company that burns cash faster than it earns it. SemiAnalysis has first power at this site in 2029. The banks underwrote 2028. I think the AI infrastructure bet cracks here first, in the loan market, before it ever shows up in stock prices, and the banks who funded the construction are the ones left with the bill. Hedgie🤗
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Arch_Angel retweeted
Over the last three months, there has been a repeatable and extremely sizable footprint in the /ES market that consistently comes in and drives equities lower. The flow has a very specific execution pattern. They pile into the order book, aggressively taking liquidity tick after tick through what looks like a compressed TWAP. The price impact is immediate, and the pressure tends to remain heavy throughout the moment they turn the program on. In some ways, it resembles forced or margin-related selling (waterfall like selling), despite the fact that it clearly isn’t. When they release from the orderbook, the market slightly bounces and then trades in a small range for the remaining part of the day. There’s other execution tendencies this end user has. I won’t list out all for obvious reasons but at this point I’m sure a lot of traders are seeing this. What makes it particularly interesting is trying to conceptualize what type of shop could be behind it. There are very few firms in the world with a balance sheet large enough to consistently trade this kind of size and execute in such an elementary manner. And no it’s not due to gamma or delta hedging. It doesn’t behave like a traditional equity derivatives dealer that would be hedging out delta/ gamma risk. The execution is less sophisticated, and the footprint tends to have a strong cross-asset relationship with moves in rates, which isn’t typically what you would expect from an equity derivatives market maker. It’s not a vol control fund, it’s not a pension or endowment. Which narrows the list down for those with a creative mind. These things end up making headlines weeks or months later. Whatever this flow is, it’s truly fascinating to watch this footprint reappear every few days with such force, consistency, and lack of care to hide their impact. I’m not sure I have ever seen a flow like this while markets are so close to all time highs.
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Arch_Angel retweeted
As discussed with Oracle an hour ago, Oracle remains committed to Project Jupiter and its contract with Bloom to deliver 2.4 GW of fuel cell capacity. We are excited to execute Project Jupiter on Oracle’s planned timeline.
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OPENAI, OWL [Blue Owl (OWL) spokesperson says Blue Owl, Stack Infrastructure and Oracle remain fully aligned on Project Jupiter -- Bloomberg
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Here are ten grotesque hoaxes that permanently broke corporate journalism and exposed their cartel forever. Legacy media executives feign bewilderment over their cratering credibility, yet the historical record tells an undeniable story. The collapse of public trust was earned through calculated psychological operations, doctored footage, and deliberate institutional fraud. They demanded you ignore your own eyes, surrender basic common sense, and treat blatant partisan propaganda as sacred scripture. 1. The "Fiery But Mostly Peaceful" Spectacle (CNN, 2020) Ali Velshi stood in front of towering infernos consuming Kenosha storefronts while the lower-third graphic insisted the scene was "mostly peaceful." The broadcast demanded viewers distrust their own eyes to protect the regime's preferred civil unrest. 2. The Covington Catholic Character Assassination (2019) Legacy networks selectively sliced footage of teenager Nick Sandmann standing motionless while an activist banged a drum inches from his face. The media branded a quiet high schooler as the face of white supremacy, triggering multi-million dollar defamation settlements once uncut footage destroyed the script. 3. The Jussie Smollett Hate Crime Fable (2019) Anchors uncritically broadcast an absurd fairy tale featuring sub-zero Chicago temperatures, roving assailants carrying bleach, and an intact noose. Newsrooms substituted basic police reporting with cheap racial melodrama, crowning a mediocre actor a martyr before Chicago police dismantled the fraud. 4. The Hunter Biden Laptop Suppression (2020) Fifty-one retired intelligence operatives signed a letter laundering genuine domestic corruption as foreign influence. Corporate networks obediently censored the report right before a presidential election, only verifying the laptop years later when political consequences had expired. 5. The Charlottesville "Very Fine People" Deception (2017) Cable news ran a heavily edited nine-second soundbite to convince the public that a sitting president endorsed white supremacists. They buried the explicit sentence spoken moments later condemning neo-Nazis entirely. Networks weaponized this lie for seven consecutive years. 6. The Border Patrol "Whips" Fabrication (2021) Anchors and politicians accused mounted border agents of using whips against Haitian migrants along the Rio Grande. Even after the civilian photographer publicly testified that agents used split reins to control horses, the media kept the smear alive to paralyze sovereign enforcement. 7. The Automotive "Bloodbath" Panic (2024) Commentators clipped a speech analyzing Chinese auto tariffs and manufactured a panic about nationwide political slaughter. Outlets coordinated identical headlines across digital platforms, deliberately deceiving voters to produce cheap campaign fear. Clip Search: Trump bloodbath auto industry speech full context 8. The Steele Dossier Collusion Hoax (2016 to 2019) Cable hosts spent years reading unverified opposition research funded by political opponents as sacred scripture. Pundits guaranteed imminent treason indictments on prime-time television, harvesting viewer paranoia to fuel a multi-million-dollar ratings racket built on zero evidence. 9. The "Hands Up, Don't Shoot" Myth (2014) Pundits raised their hands on air to validate an execution narrative that never happened in Ferguson. The federal Justice Department ultimately demolished the story using forensic ballistics, yet networks permanently embedded the fabrication into modern cultural folklore. 10. The Wuhan Lab Leak "Racist Conspiracy" Blackout (2020) Legacy reporters branded the virology laboratory hypothesis a xenophobic delusion to protect international bureaucracies and federal research grants. Once evidence made the scenario undeniable, the press pivoted without acknowledging their coordinated suppression of scientific inquiry. These ten hoaxes barely scratch the surface of a decades-long catalog of engineered deception. X has character limits, and modern server infrastructure has physical constraints. Documenting every single fabrication produced by the left-wing press would literally require paving the entire surface of the moon with data centers. The legacy cartel traded its credibility for partisan propaganda, and the American public permanently revoked its trust. The monopoly is broken, the curtain is down, and their authority will never return.
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The Politics of Fed Independence Before the 2024 election, trimmed-mean PCE inflation was 2.81%, yet Powell’s Fed delivered a 50-basis-point cut. Ahead of the 2026 midterms, trimmed-mean PCE is lower, 2.28%, yet the Warsh Fed has raised rates by 25 basis points and adopted an overtly hawkish stance. And we are still supposed to believe the Fed is apolitical? Right.
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Arch_Angel retweeted
BREAKING: In a 2-1 vote, the Sixth Circuit allowed Ohio to continue requiring proof of citizenship for voter registration at the BMV while the state appeals a federal judge’s order that had blocked the requirement. Judge Ritz dissented.
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Arch_Angel retweeted
🇺🇸 President Trump has rejected IRGC’s latest proposal for a deal in Iran
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Trump Overnight Presidential Job Approval - is in Single overnight approval for last night: 47.32% And his approval moves up again today in our 5-day avg.
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Arch_Angel retweeted
🚨 HOLY SMOKES! 🤯 The New York Times reports that a Democratic-aligned group, Project Bullhorn, paid more than 100 creators through SideShift to flood social media with “affordability” content ahead of the 2026 midterms. $25–$30 PER VIDEO. Many didn’t disclose they were being paid. Some weren’t even from the states they claimed to represent. One Utah resident posed as a Texan, while a creator in England claimed to be from Texas. And remember how every time you opened TikTok, it felt like “affordability” videos had completely taken over your feed? IT WASN’T YOUR IMAGINATION. Democrats literally paid creators to manufacture what was supposed to look like organic grassroots outrage. They wanted you to believe regular Americans were naturally flooding social media with outrage over affordability when there was an organized, paid campaign behind the content. And they wonder why people don’t trust the left. THIS is exactly why. 👇
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NEW: Transcripts released by @JudiciaryGOP once again confirm collaboration between Biden DOJ/Special Counsel Jack Smith and the Biden White House. Here is JP Cooney--who pushed for investigations into Trump and his circle immediately after Jan 6 then detailed to Jack Smith's team after his appointment in Nov 2022--admitting he communicated with Biden's WH counsel. This aligns with my reporting a few years ago disclosing how Biden DOJ interacted with Biden WH Counsel Jonathan Su in late 2021 and into 2022 before he stepped down in Oct. 2022. More evidence debunking media claims that the Biden DOJ acted independently of the Biden White House--and that somehow President Trump's engagement in DOJ matter is "unprecedented."
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So, what we now know is there were at least 2 Democrat Lawyers, one of them a judge, who committed serious Federal Felonies: Judge Hannah Dugan in WI DOJ Attorney Kevin Clinesmith in DC One was a plea bargain, and the other was a jury trial. Both guilty. Neither one served one day in jail or had their Law license suspended / revoked, nor were they disbarred. Then, on the other side of the political spectrum we had: Professor John Eastman Fmr DOJ AAG Jeffrey Clark Neither were convicted of any crime and were merely providing their client / employer with legal advice. To which; Jeffery Clark was subjected to lawfare & bar-fare, incurred serious legal fees and a near disbarment in DC. Professor John Eastman was never charged with a crime, but was subjected to lawfare and bar-fare and also incurred serious legal fees, and then was disbarred in California. His case is pending Cert. in the SCOTUS. There is something really wrong in our society when only one side of the political spectrum is singled out for persecution, and in some cases prosecution for non crimes. Only to have their careers and funding sources stolen from them and their families put through the stress for no other reason than politics. Rant over.
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🇸🇦 The reopen of the East-West Pipeline removes a major supply bottleneck, giving Saudi Arabia its bypass around vulnerable Gulf shipping lanes. By piping crude straight to the Red Sea, Riyadh bypasses the Strait of Hormuz entirely. That operational recovery immediately bleeds out the geopolitical risk premium added after the September 10 attacks, stabilizing energy flows when macro markets needed it most…macro is getting better!
SoftBank credit default swaps are blowing out as the debt market loses patience with high leverage venture bets. 5-year CDS spreads have surged past 380 bps in September 2026, completely erasing the mid year rally that briefly dragged spreads back under 280 bps. The market is aggressively repricing default risk. As global tech capital demands shift from speculative venture funding to asset heavy infrastructure, holding massive debt loads without clear cash flow timing is coming with an increasingly brutal risk premium.
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Arch_Angel retweeted
A man killed his wife, chopped her up, boiled her body and fed her to homeless people. Sunny Hostin kept him out of prison. Could be the most insane moment in 30 years of insane moments on the View.
Sunny Hostin brags about being a holdout juror that prevented The Butcher of Thompson Square Park from going to prison. She admits "once he killed her, he chopped up her body parts, yes, boiled her body parts ... and fed her body parts to the unhoused."
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