BILL GATES WHERE THE ART THOU?!
I hope you're watching the Tesla Semi event tonight...
Tesla opens the Semi factory tonight at 6pm PT, live on 𝕏.
In 2020 Bill wrote that an electric 18-wheeler would probably NEVER work.
"The problem is that batteries are big and heavy. The more weight you're trying to move, the more batteries you need to power the vehicle. But the more batteries you use, the more weight you add, and the more power you need. Even with big breakthroughs in battery technology, electric vehicles will probably NEVER be a practical solution for things like 18-wheelers. Electricity works when you need to cover short distances, but we need a different solution for heavy, long-haul vehicles."
BTW, he also bet against the company... he shorted
$TSLA.
In 2022 Elon texted him and asked if he still had a $ half-billion-dollar short position against Tesla.
And he did.
On December 17, 2025, Elon said that short was about 1% of Tesla's shares, and that it might have cost Gates over $10 billion by now. Elon even once said Gates told him in person, at Giga Texas, that a long-range Semi was impossible.
The Tesla team has been grinding over the years as people gave up on the Tesla Semi program... every year it slipped, more of them walked away.
In The Master Plan, Elon wrote the goal down on July 20, 2016... Tesla was NOT going to stop at cars. Heavy trucks had to go electric too, bc that is where a ton of the fuel actually gets burned. The team showed the Semi on November 16, 2017 and PepsiCo took the first ones in December 2022, hauling real freight with them ever since.
And tonight they are opening the factory.
The building is 1.7 million square feet, next to Gigafactory Nevada. Tesla sized it for up to produce 50,000 Semis a year. And Dan Priestley has said there will be many thousands by the end of 2026. So here are the facts.
1/ Standard Range is about 325 miles. Long Range is about 500. Both of those are at a full 82,000 lb load.
2/ It uses about 1.7 kWh per mile. A diesel Class 8 usually gets around 6 to 7 miles per gallon. A gallon of diesel holds about 38 kWh of energy. At 7 mpg that is a little over 5 kWh of fuel burned every mile. The Semi uses 1.7. The diesel is burning about 3 times the energy to move the same freight.
3/ The long range truck can take up to 1.2 megawatts. Tesla says about 60% of the battery comes back in 30 minutes. That is a driver’s required break, and on the 500-mile truck it is on the order of 300 miles. There is also a 25 kW outlet on the truck, so a refrigerated trailer can run off the battery.
4/ After the driver, fuel is one of the biggest bills a fleet has. $4 diesel at 7 mpg is about 57 cents a mile. Electricity at 15 cents a kWh and 1.7 kWh a mile is about 26 cents a mile. The direction is a lot less $ money per mile, and the price of electricity does not swing around the way diesel does. You also drop the oil changes, the diesel exhaust fluid, and the emissions equipment that keeps parking diesel trucks in the shop. Regenerative breaking slows the truck down, so the brakes last longer. It's clearly a financially better decision for businesses.
5/ Medium and heavy trucks were 23% of US transportation emissions. Transportation was the largest source of America’s direct emissions. These trucks are a small share of the vehicles, yet a huge share of the fuel. Take one diesel doing 100,000 miles a year at 7 mpg. That is about 14,300 gallons. The EPA puts about 22.5 pounds of CO2 in a gallon of diesel. Call it 145 metric tons a year, out of one tailpipe. The Tesla Semi also has no tailpipe, no diesel soot, no NOx on the street next to the warehouse, the port, or the school by the highway. A diesel is stuck burning diesel for the rest of its life.
6/ 800 kW is about 1,070 horsepower, from three motors. A lot of diesel tractors are 400 to 600 horsepower, and a full trailer makes them crawl on a grade while cars stack up behind. The Tesla Semi has the power to keep its speed. Tesla says those three motors can also catch a jackknife. The battery sits low, which makes the truck harder to roll. And Tesla Semis are designed for autonomy.
7/ PepsiCo has been running Semis since December 2022. Einride ordered 500, starting this month, across California, Texas, New Jersey, Illinois, and Georgia, including Amazon freight. This week ZET SCALE, a shipper group with Microsoft and PepsiCo in it, picked Tesla as the primary truck for a program of up to 2,500 electric Class 8 trucks. Tesla’s own account said 2,500 Semis. Kenworth, Volvo, and RIDE are also named in that deal, so the split is one of the things to listen for tonight. IMC ordered 50 for California port runs. DHL and ABF already bought after real pilots. Semis spotted at the factory today already had customer logos on them - PepsiCo, US Foods, DHL, Einride, ABF, IMC, WattEV, OK Produce, and more.
So Bill, I hope you’re watching tonight.
The truck you said would probably NEVER work is now getting its own 1.7-million-square-foot factory ready to be built at scale.
The debate over whether an electric 18-wheeler can exist is over.
Now the question is how big this gets. And knowing Tesla, the Semi we see today is probably only the beginning.