TallDave retweeted
This is incredible
We’re releasing a broad range of new mathematical results produced by an internal frontier model. We’ve been consulting with the independent Advisory Group on Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence at the Institute for Advanced Study, and we have drawn on their advice and public recommendations to inform how we release these results. github.com/openai/math
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Iranian people will rise. Regime will fall! #KingRezaPahlavi‌
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Iran has a new oil minister. Considering Iran has not loaded a single barrel of crude onto a vessel since August 25th, what is the oil minister managing?
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TallDave retweeted
Replying to @globalcitizen_K
no sign alas that the rise in the deficit with China will be self correcting, particularly in a world where China is clinging to a growth model that relies on net exports (10% export volume growth, 0% import volume growth e gold ... )
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TallDave retweeted
@grok Did any US operational victory actually matter to the outcome of the war?
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TallDave retweeted
As always, @NazeeMoinian is right. In 1978 the strikes cut off the oil money. Today, the oil money is gone before the strikes have even begun. In 1978 it took some 35,000 striking oil workers to take Iran's output from 5.7m b/d to 250,000 b/d by Dec. 30, below the country's own needs, with nothing left to export. The Shah was losing $60m+ a day. In September 2026, Iran loaded zero crude for the entire month and has cut production to below 1.5m b/d, roughly domestic demand and oil wells that have been shut in. Not one oil worker had to walk out. The economic and naval blockade by @CENTCOM and @USTreasury did to the regime's oil income what the strikes did to the Shah's. And the conditions that feed strikes are already here: 89.8% inflation, a minimum wage of 166m rials (about $61 at 2.72m rials/$), wages paid late or in installments, salaries and pensions months in arrears in places, and nurses, teachers and retirees in the streets. The oil minister quit on Sunday.
A look back on how strikes sped up Shah’s demise in 1978: Iranian oil workers began striking in Sep. ‘78 with the decisive nationwide walkout late Oct. Production nosedived from 5.7m/day to 1.5m/day in Dec to 0. Iran is at this point now WITHOUT strikes. Gov workers, nurses and teachers are on the streets. Rial is worthless, leadership is in tatters and regime navy/air is nonfunctional. Elite defection might be next.
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Make refineries great again. If we can open a refinery that's closed, open it. If we can expand a refinery that can be expanded, expand it. If we can accelerate new build, accelerate it. Any deal on the table - do the deal. Any authority unused, use it. Now is the window.
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TallDave retweeted
No secret why -- investment in data centers is import intensive (imports of computers -- heavily from Taiwan and Mexico -- have soared) Massive spike in imports and specifically capital goods imports 2/
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TallDave retweeted
The US trade deficit has soared in the last 2 months and is almost back at its "front-running' (of liberation day) levels -- annualized the non-petrol August goods deficit was $1.7 trillion or so 1/
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TallDave retweeted
1/2 This is why, when examining the impact on US manufacturing of external shocks, it is important to separate the manufacturing share of output from the manufacturing share of employment. When the manufacturing share of employment declines because of a rise in manufacturing productivity, this is a good thing, and is precisely the reason why countries should want to specialize in manufacturing. Even China, whose share of global manufacturing has surged in recent years, has seen a decline in the manufacturing share of employment. This is exactly the definition of productivity growth. But when the manufacturing share of employment declines because of a decline in the manufacturing share of GDP, this is a very different thing. It means the country is reducing its ability to take advantage of rising productivity in manufacturing. This is clearly not a good thing. I am always a little shocked when American economists dismiss the importance of manufacturing to the US economy by pointing to the long-term decline in the manufacturing share of employment in the US. This is not evidence that manufacturing doesn't matter. On the contrary, it is evidence that countries that specialize in manufacturing benefit from more rapid productivity growth.
A few comments on the China shock debate, from a more "macro" point of view that sets aside the vicious debate about "identification" -- There was clearly a downturn in manufacturing output around the time of China's WTO entry (it doesn't recover til 06/07) 1/
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Operation Economic Outcast is delivering results: the rial has plunged to record lows, Iran loaded zero crude oil onto tankers last month, and even Iran’s top security official has admitted the country is facing one of the most difficult periods in its history. The Iranian regime allows its own people to suffer while it pours resources into terrorism. Operation Economic Outcast will not stop until the Iranian regime understands that the Trump Administration will never allow the regime to fund terrorism and develop a nuclear weapon.
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TallDave retweeted
Replying to @joefrancis505
read the thread. helped raise real incomes of service sector employees. but the broader China shock includes the pressure China placed on oil prices, which was a negative real income shock for most uS households -- real wage growth hasn't great from 2000 to 2016 lots of reasons but hard to argue there was a big positive impact. cheers
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TallDave retweeted
Houthis just lost Mocha
If the Houthis can’t hold the center of Yemen it makes their position as a legitimate political and military force more fragile.
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TallDave retweeted
Portland, Ore. (Oct. 4) — Antifa destroyed the gay-owned Clarklewis restaurant after rallying a mob there to attack a table of customers accused of being white nationalists. The restaurant has been forced to shut down for now because of the damage and traumatized staff. @PortlandPolice does not monitor Antifa's terrorism in the city, so the group has been able to organize deadly violence for years. John Hacker, the violent Antifa militant and convicted criminal who has attacked multiple victims, including me at a gym, was photographed outside the venue with his comrades. ngocomment.com
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TallDave retweeted
The real winner of this conflict is Toyota
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TallDave retweeted
Yemeni forces reportedly advanced north under heavy air cover, surrounded Houthi fighters near Bab al-Mandab and Mayyun Island, captured dozens, killed dozens + cut the Al-Saqiya & Al-Omari Camp route.
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TallDave retweeted
As much as the black pilled doomers loved to cry about how the Trump admin hasn’t fixed every problem in America… I’d like to point our this is the current ATF director telling some Everytown For Gun Safety dude to fuck off. Keep in mind two years ago Biden’s ATF director was making literally millions of us felons overnight because we had the wrong shaped piece of plastic on our guns. Anybody who says these two sides are equal is dumb or an op trying to sell you something.
Replying to @maxasteele
LOL, you talk crap to me and then your mad that I responded. I am on my time, and I am exercising my 1st amendment right to call you and idiot. I responded to a message from trash talking, fact twisting BS artist. I am not one of you loyal readers and will NEVER waste my time on you again.
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He means Postliberal versus constitutional conservatives. This person and I literally agree on only one thing. Republicans must win the midterms. Then we can fight for the future of the right. But if we don’t vote and lose, we won’t have a future to fight over.
This is existential for the democrats. If Vance wins ’28, and the 2030 census reflects these moves, the Democrats will be dead for decades. And then we can have our war over control of the GOP (right wing vs. Legacy Establishment). This specifically is why I’m for Vance. Think ahead. Organize.
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TallDave retweeted
The upside of extremism
I just found the most brilliant bit by @JohnCleese He explains Leftism better in 90 seconds, than you could learn from any academic in 20 years.
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TallDave retweeted
99.5% of all violent crime committed on the DC Metro were by fare evaders That is not a typo
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