Father, Chief U.S. Economist, @sghmacro, former @uoregon economist, Tim Duy's Fed Watch, former columnist for @bopinion
Eugene, OR
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Lol...some series chart crime here. This should be a felony offense.
Some data we recently assembled on entrepreneurship/compute in Europe: eudata.vercel.app.
We hope that one of the useful roles that Stripe can play is in collecting and publishing empirical data pertaining to entrepreneurship and industry in Europe. There's growing appetite to get Europe on a better footing, and cross-sectional comparisons can often shine light on where opportunities lie. If you're interested in this kind of thing, we publish more at stripeeconomics.substack.com.
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IDK if this is really much of a silver lining. On trend means that trade services are passing on costs at twice the pre-pandemic pace. That speaks to embedded inflation above target.
The silver lining to the otherwise bad US PPI data is that retailers now appear to have passed on all the tariff costs to consumers. Trade services prices have rebounded over last three months and now are back to their trend path:
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When you see markets pricing in no chance of a cut in April, and less than a cut this entire year, and we are still talking about the possibility of three dissents against holding rates constant today, you realize how much damage Trump has already done to the @federalreserve.
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It’s not just the presidents, Barr was ringing the bell before the October FOMC meeting. It really just amazing that the financial press utterly ignored him.
Strange so many Fed presidents are pushing back against December cut. The bias in September was 3 cuts, and since then we have had limited official data with the shutdown itself a modest economic headwind.
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Whoa, it looks like my wife covered the climb to the peak of Mt. Hood in just over three hours this morning.
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Quick build - outdoor end table, still trying to get the wood choice and design correct (meaning acceptable to my wife). Iroko wood, a substitute for teak.
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Finally completed this small cabinet. My most complicated build yet, of course I can only see the errors! Cherry.
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I told my wife that going to the hardwood store is like going to Nordstrom Rack. You never know what will be the manager’s special of the day!
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Just completed a new “bench top workbench” to bring the work higher to me so I don’t need to bend over so much. The top is birch and the vice is khaya (African mahogany), a softer wood that won’t damage most other hard woods.
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Second glue up, not sure it’s my best, this stage can get out of kilter quickly but it looks like I got straight lines.
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Whenever I have been out of the shop for a few weeks, I tune up my tools and skills either a “scrap wood” cutting board.
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That's true, but I would add we really don't have any new information to support that and it's pretty much just the standard market reaction. Below is from my Monday note.
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I didn't want to go down this road while I am into the second Guinness, but SPX made ATHs after the Fed's first rate cut in 2007. A 50bp cut on September 18 no less.
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Though Mary Daly says path is data point dependent.
wsj.com/podcasts/the-journal…
Goolsbee just endorsed the early rate path and reduced the impact of tomorrow's payroll print. A strong number will still pressure the front-end but less so
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On the other hand, from November 2002...
The Federal Reserve is about to re-litigate a bunch of debates from three decades ago
sherwood.news/markets/federa…
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From last week's Waldo Lake swim, about 5.5k! It was 55 degrees in the morning; the previous week is was 36 and the water temp was 59.
Like she has room to say anything - she gets up at 2am to climb mountains in the dead of winter.
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Bolhuis, Cramer, Schulz & Summers (2024). “We show that the lows in US consumer sentiment that cannot be explained by unemployment and official inflation are strongly correlated with borrowing costs and consumer credit supply.” nber.org/papers/w32163
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Oregon numbers.
Across the U.S., on average, state and local taxes are regressive, meaning people with lower incomes pay higher effective rates.
cc: @iteptweets
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The market has now priced in a roughly 60% chance of a March rate cut. While that is still a long way off, here is what we were saying a month ago. sghmacro.com.
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Hmmm…not sure being number 61 out of 66 is as impressive as it might seem, but it’s a notch ahead of Seattle.
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Yet consumer loans climbing to new cycle high after a dip in July.
The share of U.S. households reporting that it's harder to obtain credit than one year ago hit a new high in the New York Fed's consumer survey, which is around 10 years old
newyorkfed.org/microeconomic…
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New cutting board, walnut and padauk, a new wood for me. Midway through during cutting a void was revealed, which I filled with resin. Messed up the juice groove a little, the vertical grooves are 1/8 inch too close to the edge, 1.5 inches thick.
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Sunrise over Hood Canal. Looks swimmable, but no place to shower off the salt water at this campground.
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My wife asked for a small end table for the deck, presumably to hold your beer. This is a design I have been working with, maple, still to be finished.
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Exactly what I was thinking. Greenspan’s “irrational exuberance” speech was in December 1996.
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Waldo Lake swim, the iconic swim of the summer. Lots of scars from last year’s Cedar Creek fire.
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Working on a new mantel for the fireplace. The top is the original mantle (1959, mahogany) I found buried inside the existing mantle. It had been painted, so I tested for lead before stripping. The sides are mahogany salvaged from trim removed in a different project.
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