Today is an important day in the analysis of the war in Gaza. Today marks the close of the third year of the war. This means we have enough data to compare three respective years on what happened in the reported death tolls, wounded, and total casualty counts (deaths + wounded).
Important to note that the pre-war population was estimated to be at about 2,230,000. This information does not include possible population growth that we know has happened through various datasets on live births. We are only looking at the pre-war population (and we are not accounting for the roughly 100,000 estimated emigrants because we also don't know how many have returned, etc.).
This is what we find:
Total reported deaths:
Year 1: 41,870 (56.4% of total reported deaths)
Year 2: 25,290 (34.06% of total reported deaths)
Year 3: 7,083 (9.54% of total reported deaths)
Total: 74,243 (100% of total reported deaths)
Total reported wounded:
Year 1: 97,166 (55.45% of total reported wounded)
Year 2: 72,513 (41.38% of total reported wounded)
Year 3: 5,553 (3.167% of total reported wounded)
Total: 175,232 (100% of total reported wounded)
Total reported casualties (deaths + wounded):
Year 1: 139,036 (55.73% of total reported casualties)
Year 2: 97,803 (39.2% of total reported casualties)
Year 3: 12,636 (5.06% of total reported casualties)
Total: 249,475 (100% of total reported casualties)
So, in terms of annual reported deaths we see the following:
Year 1 to Year 2: 16,580 fewer reported deaths (-39.6%)
Year 2 to Year 3: 18,207 fewer reported deaths (-71.99%)
*Year 1 to Year 3: 34,787 fewer reported deaths (-83.08%)
In terms of annual reported wounded we see the following:
Year 1 to Year 2: 24,653 fewer reported injuries (-25.37%)
Year 2 to Year 3: 66,960 fewer reported injuries (-92.34%)
*Year 1 to Year 3: 91,613 fewer reported injuries (-94.29%)
In terms of annual reported total casualties we see the following:
Year 1 to Year 2: 41,233 fewer reported total casualties (-29.66%)
Year 2 to Year 3: 85,167 fewer reported total casualties (-87.08%)
*Year 1 to Year 3: 126,400 fewer reported total casualties (-90.91%)
*The Year 1 to Year 3 information goes from the first year of the war to through the ceasefire of October 2025 and through October 6, 2026. We should naturally find a dramatic decrease in that time span, it's included because I find it interesting.
Anyways, this tells us a lot of information about the course of the war and Israeli conduct. We have been hearing a lot of information over the last few weeks that Israel's assessments would purposefully increase incidental (collateral) harm to innocent civilians. The data does not substantiate this. We see a reduction over time including year 2 from year 1 where we see a major offensive operation. The data demonstrates that Israel likely tightens its own constraints over time, this can be seen in the first year with a month over month decrease from the start of the war in total casualties.
What's interesting about this in the discourse that's going on surrounding Israel's conduct in the war is that much of that discourse is not founded in reality, facts, or law. A lot of it is based on fundamentally flawed data (thanks to
@MarkZlochin for researching that in relation to the
@Michael_Spagat study).
Instead of relying on the projections we should operate on what we have and the data that is provided to us by the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
Further, this does demonstrate that Israel's intent likely is not to increase incidental harm to the civilian population since we can demonstrate real impact of harm reduction over time. If they are taking measures to reduce harm to the civilian population in Gaza it is also hard to substantiate that Israel's intent is to destroy the population, in whole or in part, as such. Another key component of this is that the total death toll accounts for 3.33% of the pre-war population, with a decrease of death over time.
If you don't understand what I'm talking about here, that's okay. I'll be more blunt: It means that the conversation surrounding Israel's alleged commission of the crime of genocide is likely unsustainable under the jurisprudence since the data appears to show Israel taking measures to protect the Palestinian population from harm over time. Genocide requires the intentional destruction of a population, in whole or in part, because of their status as the protected group. Meaning, they are targeted as a group, not as an individual, for destruction.
Just looking at the data it paints a picture, it does not address the rest of the analysis in the requirements for proving a claim of genocide. As of today that requires that it be the only reasonable inference available on the totality of the evidence. In my view as a lawyer in this area, the evidence does not allow for that to be the only reasonable inference, as discussed above. That does not account for the substantial weaponization of Gaza's infrastructure by Hamas and how that has led to substantive destruction in Gaza. It does not address the lack of distinction by Hamas, nor does it address the use of minors for combat purposes (which itself is a bit more complicated and nuanced). This only looks at the raw numbers of the last three years. That's it.
This also does not insulate Israel from all claims, however. That's just about the claim of the commission of the crime of genocide as a whole. (Nor does this sentence convict Israel of any crime, it's just not the subject of this particular topic.)
Hopefully you find this useful, please feel free to ask questions that may arise!