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Well I never. Who could have guessed etc
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Aaaaand $META has a core business that's stronger and more AI-proof.
if meta were valued at the same revenue multiple anthropic is targeting, it would be worth ~$12.5 trillion food for thought
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What a major blunder by Sam's PR manager. But also, good on Sam, for a) Taking the question and b) Giving a reasonably good answer
VANITY FAIR
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*OCTOBER FED RATE HIKE ODDS PLUMMET BELOW 20% AFTER SOFT SEPTEMBER JOBS REPORT CME Group data shows the market implied probability of an October 28 Fed rate hike collapsed from nearly 70% to roughly 20% following the release of the September nonfarm payrolls report. Expectations for back to back policy tightening surged through September, driven by hawkish comments from Fed officials Warsh, Williams, and Jefferson following the September 16 rate hike.
*JULIUS BAER EXPECTS FINAL FED RATE HIKE IN DECEMBER FOLLOWED BY EXTENDED PAUSE AS FINANCIAL CONDITIONS TIGHTEN Julius Baer projects the Federal Reserve will deliver one final 25 basis point interest rate hike at its December FOMC meeting before entering an extended pause, according to market strategy note highlights.
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$MU $SKHY $WDC $STX $SNDK $DRAM lead times just hit 20 weeks. Balanced is 8. Enterprise SSDs are getting capped. NAND suppliers cannot get enough DRAM cache to ship the full drive. HDDs are even worse at 50 weeks, with relief unlikely before late 2027. So a DRAM 20 week quote says two things: there is no finished inventory to ship from, and new orders are also waiting in line before production even begins. If it were only the empty buffer, quotes would sit closer to 15 or 16 weeks.
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Replying to @Miatsf
1000 jobs a month are being lost in the North Sea While your Department tries to claim there are 0.5 million green jobs by reclsssifying old jobs like bin men as now being "green" It's a con trick. Net zero is driving jobs out of the North Sea faster than any new green jobs are created as well as driving massive job losses through deindustrialisation I'm sure the people who work in the newly mothballed Ineos chemical plants share my scepticism about your half-baked narrative
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*J.P. MORGAN: MEMORY MARKET TIGHTNESS EXTENDS THROUGH CY28 AS MICRON 4QFY26 READ-THROUGH SHOWS NO LINE OF SIGHT TO SUPPLY BALANCE J.P. Morgan's latest Memory Market Update highlights extending structural supply demand tightness through CY28 following $MU earnings call, with customer order discussions expanding out to 2031. Micron management expects market conditions to be even tighter in 27/28 than in 26, pointing to cleanroom capacity shortages and projected industry DRAM/NAND bit shipment growth capped at low to mid 20% ranges against compounding hyperscaler demand. HBM bit shipments are projected to outpace conventional DRAM growth through CY28 (+63% vs. +37% for non HBM server DRAM), reinforcing that advanced packaging bottlenecks and memory supply constraints remain a central bottleneck for global AI infrastructure scaling.
Dropping a 60+ page deep dive on the memory market next week across Singapore, Idaho, Tongluo, Hiroshima, NY & Seoul. Everything you need to position for Q4 across $MU, Samsung, $SNDK and $SKHY —100% free alpha. Subscribe now so you don't miss the drop: nicholasmugalli.substack.com
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The most bullish thing about BTC is the volatility has collapsed. That is exactly how you get mass adoption and different asset managers allocating to it. The big returns are gone.
Surprised at the reaction to this post. Here is the thought that generated it: 1. I logged onto Coinbase recently to buy more BTC, & was struck that unlike when i first bought BTC on Coinbase in 2013, Coinbase now offers all sorts of BTC derivatives, offering varying degrees of leverage, all cash-settled (not BTC-settled). 2. BTC peak-to-peak CAGR returns have collapsed in the 2 cycles since cash-settled** BTC derivatives began trading (**"cash-settled" is key, because it means the owner of the biggest printing press increasingly sets marginal prices over time, NOT physical supply & demand. In most cases, the owner of the biggest printing press is the very fiat system BTC was designed to escape from) 👇 As a BTC holder since 2013 (and still), this collapse in peak-to-peak CAGR of BTC troubles me greatly. I would be happy to have anyone explain why peak-to-peak returns have collapsed in the past 8 years & why they think this trend will stop despite the seeming continued expansion of cash-settled BTC derivatives and cash-settled betting markets on BTC. Thank you. 🙏❤️
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Peter Lynch: “Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” Burry would be a billionaire if he bought S&P 500 with what he made in 2008. Instead he became a doomer.
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WARNING: $MU may cause $500B+ in earnings by 2028. Side effects include buybacks. If that sounds scary, $AMD, $COST & $TSLA are much gentler. $3.6B, $3B and $0.7B next quarter. Very soothing. Ask your doctor if small earnings are right for you.
$MU Holy Shit. Morgan Stanley just said Micron will earn $500B in about two years. "Micron will earn close to half the current market cap by the end of 2028, with most of that returned to shareholders." (Sep. 30) Perspective: $AMD should earn about $3B next quarter 😂
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Michael Burry sold his $LULU position near 52-week lows today while $NVDA, his big short, hit a record high. Bro went long yoga pants and short computers. I don't even know what to say anymore.
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$MU Morgan Stanley projects Micron will make $281B in revenue in fiscal 2027. F4Q26 (actual): $54.2B F1Q27E: $61.5B F2Q27E: $67.0B F3Q27E: $72.5B F4Q27E: $80.0B
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It's called Connect & Manage...this policy allows windfarms to be built with massive subsidies despite the fact that most of the electricity they generate cannot be used and it could be years before that changes Windfarms such as Seagreen which opened in October 2023... In 2024 2/3 of its electricity was thrown away. In 2025 that went up to 3/4 The cost of that goes straight on our bills. The windfarms don't care they get paid either way. The grid companies don't care, they also get paid either way. The Government doesn't care as it can point to windfarms being built While consumers get completely shafted
Britain’s electricity grid CRISIS Net Zero ideologue Miliband started madness back in 2008 Now every household pays over £50 per year in constraint payments to wind operators not to produce electricity By 2030 will be £250 per household per year extra cost From you, to the wind operators not to turn their turbines Scrap Net Zero, stop this insanity telegraph.co.uk/business/202…
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Jensen Huang: it’s irresponsible for Elon Musk and Geoffrey Hinton to talk about AI doom and humans being a “bootloader” for AI. “That 10% chance is not grounded in science. It’s not grounded in research.” “Just because it comes from a scientist doesn’t make it scientific.” “Those predictions are hurtful.” “Don’t think for a second just because you’re an alarmist that you’re doing a social good.” “Be evidence-based. Be scientific. Do the science.”
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$MU Micron will start returning FAR MORE cash to shareholders on Dec. 9, CFO Mark Murphy said on the Sep 30 earnings call, when CHIPS Act buyback limits lapse — pledging 100% of excess cash, mostly via repurchases. The chipmaker holds $73.5B cash against $5.2B debt, with $33.2B in adjusted free cash flow last quarter, setting up a stepped-up buyback program.
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Memory cycles used to end the same way: prices rise, capacity floods in, prices collapse. This one has contracts written into it. Micron now has 26 strategic customer agreements (up from 16), with $32B in customer commitments, mostly cash deposits. Those cover more than 35% of expected revenue through 2030, a majority under price bands with floors and ceilings. Combined commitments already cover over 75% of its fiscal 2027 output, structured as take-or-pay. Samsung has guided toward 60–70% of medium- to long-term capacity under multiyear LTAs. SK hynix has closed talks with about 10 customers on roughly five-year deals, with ~50% coverage seen as achievable. The floor is contractual. The open variable is 2028, when new fab bits arrive against the uncontracted share. $MU $SKHY
Memory used to crash the same way every cycle: price up, everyone adds capacity, supply floods, price dies. This one is written into the contract. Samsung ~60–70% of capacity under LTA. SK hynix ~50–60%. Micron 75%+ of 2027 bits already covered, SCAs up from 16 to 26, ~$32B take-or-pay, 75% price-banded through 2030. The boom is not just demand. A price floor is already on the page. The open question is 2028, when new fab bits hit the uncontracted quarter.
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How do working people on ordinary incomes replace the lost income tax from this lot. It's going to be expensive.
London takes a hit as super rich worth $160 billion exit the UK bloomberg.com/news/features/… via @BenStupples
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Yesterday I posted that Britain abolished non-dom status and 9,000 people left before the rule even took effect. Today the second-richest man in Britain moved to Monaco. This is not a protest. It is arithmetic. A man with no employer, no commute and no fixed obligations compares two tax bills and picks the smaller one. Anyone would. The tax did not raise revenue. It relocated the revenue.
JUST IN: Britain’s second-richest billionaire David Reuben leaves the UK for tax-free Monaco, joining a growing exodus of ultra-wealthy residents.
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$MU doesn’t immediately rip 20% on the open after earnings and the timeline instantly starts parroting the same old lazy take "it’s cyclical, it’s going to dump, the move is over" it honestly blows my mind how short people’s memories are on this app. Remember when $DELL went from $100 to $300 in 3 months, then jumped 30% on earnings to touch $400 at that exact moment, everyone called it a cyclical trap that was about to dump It didn’t dump at all Instead, it ran straight from $400 to $595 and what happened Once it was sitting at $595, the same people who called it dead started talking about how incredible the fundamentals and forward guidance were, predicting another 50% run. Remember $AMD? it pumped from $90 to $260 for a fresh ATH in about 200 days. people immediately cried that it had moved way too far and the cycle was ending. the stock chopped sideways for 150 straight days, bored everyone to tears and then ripped from $200 all the way to $580 in just 3 months. same thing happened with $NVDA when it ran from $400 to $1,400 everyone said it was wildly expensive and had nowhere left to go. it split 10/1 consolidated in that painful $90 to $140 range for almost 10 months while impatient money washed out, and then casually doubled again from $100 to $233+ we saw the exact same script play out on $INTC, $GOOGL, $PANW and $MRVL. and right now, I am looking at the exact same pattern setting up across $MU, $AMZN and $ASML these names are going to double from these consolidation shelves. and the funniest part is, only after they double will consensus finally step in and say "now it’s very clear, guidance is strong, it has another 50% upside from here" at the end of the day, 95% of timeline commentary is just pure noise from people who don't know market history and have never held a winner through a multi month base. block out the noise, do your own homework and trust your conviction.
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Imagine $MU announces a massive $37B+ share buyback once its CHIPS Act restrictions expire in December. Now imagine what happens to the stock when tens of billions of dollars start buying back shares at just ~6x forward earnings. 👀
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