I imagine AI is making extremely high “cognitive ability” less important to employers—especially really big ones.
While I have serious misgivings about it, I’m in the camp that generally thinks the use of it will hasten a revived appreciation for creative capacity, virtue, authenticity, etc and, on the whole, create far more opportunity for small/distributed closely-held businesses than very large financialized ones. That will further erode the signaling aspect of contemporary college’s value prop; it was never all that important to small employers and was primarily a BigCo thing.
Also, school age population is now declining, so the education industry is going to aggressively battle back against all immigration restriction, as the global market is their only growth channel. They’ve played out the middle class and the poor, they’ve played out women, and re-institutionalizing old people for retiree classes will only take them so far. They desperately need internationals.
Meanwhile, in parallel to the fevered efforts of entrenched institutions to preserve themselves, we’ll see more schools like
@RalstonCollege emerge—small institutions with emphasis on virtue, art, literature, philosophy, discussion, etc.
Schools have always been and still are the pathway toward societal (including polity) leadership, and as their enrollment becomes far more dominated by immigrants and children of recent immigrants, that’s going to put them even more culturally at odds with the general public.
There’s a lot there. Obviously I think it’s all really interesting. Who knows how it will unfold?
This is the sort of thing I would love to have Ivan Illich’s take on.